I am slow to comment on this story, but I have only recently returned from holiday. Nevertheless, having worked for breweries for a substantial part of my career, it’s a subject that interests me, and I thought it might be worth taking a more detailed look. The story in question is that contained in a recent BBC article titled “How do you save the pint from climate change?” (which morphs into “Fears for the future of the great British pint of beer” when you click on it).

Paul Homewood beat me to it with his piece titled “No More Beer!” His piece refers to the same BBC article (at least, it uses the same link) but in his version the BBC article is titled “Fears for the future of the great British pint of beer”, which morphed on clicking on an earlier headline: “Beer threatened by climate change but scientists helping save it”.

In other words the BBC seems to have run with four different headlines for the same story, but what they have in common is a tabloid style – fears for the great British pint; it’s due to climate change; but science (the science?) can save it!

The nub of the BBC article is a claim that a changing climate endangers British hops grown in Kent:

Hops give bitter its taste but the plant doesn’t like the hotter, drier conditions we’ve experienced in recent decades and production has plummeted.

Researchers in Kent are isolating hop genes in the hope of producing more climate-change resilient varieties…

…Warmer, drier conditions have also affected the trademark bitter flavour hops gives beer. And the worry is that because of climate change, the problem is only going to get worse…

The problem, the BBC article claims, is also extending to hops grown in Europe. In support of this claim, the BBC refers to analysis published last year, and in that connection offers a link. However, when you click on it, you are taken to another BBC article from five months ago, titled “Climate change could make beer taste worse”. If you persist to the end of the second BBC article, you will find a link to the research in question, which has the title: “Climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures”.

The report is interesting, and offers a detailed analysis of possible issues relating to hops in a changing climate. However, it is worth reading beyond the headlines, because a number of factors emerge.

First, the report notes that “there has been a recent change in consumer preference towards beer aromas and flavors [sic] that heavily depend on high-quality hops. Amplified by the ongoing craft beer popularity, this trend contrasts with previous demands for lower alpha content. The recent craft beer expansion therefore not only triggered new microbreweries but also boosted the demand for aromatic hops globally…”

The problem, then, isn’t one of declining hop production. Rather it’s a problem of growing demand for a particular flavour that is dependent on a certain type of hops. And “Since the cultivation of high-quality aroma hops is restricted to relatively small regions with suitable environmental conditions…, there is a serious risk that much of the production will be affected by individual heat waves or drought extremes that are likely to increase under global climate change…”.

And so we learn that it’s actually a small problem, and one that is linked to predicitions of climate change. Furthermore,astute hop-growers are already responding:

Hop farmers can and have responded to climate change by relocating hop gardens to higher elevations and valley locations with higher water tables, building irrigation systems, changing the orientation and spacing of crop rows, and even breeding more resistant varieties. Changing the orientation of crop rows and combining irrigation with water-saving soil management practices have proven to be effective adaptation measures in viticulture. It is important that the generative phase of hop plants occurs only in the appropriate photoperiod when sunshine duration is decreasing. This can be achieved by slowing plant growth via growth inhibitors or by building protective shading structures…

The report does suggest, quite reasonably, demonstrate that hop yields decline in drought conditions, but much of the rest of it deals with models rather than reality, especially when discussing possible declines in alpha content (which “was predicted [my emphasis] to decrease considerably across all regions”).

Very properly the report also notes two rather important limitations on its findings:

In addition to the climatic factors described above, there are other external factors that can affect the yield and alpha content of aroma hops. These include the health condition of the hops, epigenetic adaptation and heredity of the hops, irrigation systems, harvest maturity, habitat conditions, and the regulation of hop growth by properly selected agricultural technology and fertilization. The location of hop fields and suitable soil are very important, especially in the valleys of rivers and smaller streams, where the water table is generally more stable. The importance of drip irrigation combined with advanced irrigation planning technologies, such as the FORHOPS initiative for stabilizing hop yields has been successfully applied in the Zatec region, where irrigated hops have become dominant since 2015. Moreover, wetter and cooler locations have often been used for new hop fields, while open plateau fields have been reduced.

While assessing future climate and environmental impacts on the quality and quantity of aroma hops, the uncertainty associated with model simulations should also be noted. Increased CO2 concentrations could partially compensate for the effects of drought and support yield growth and leaf area index while improving water use efficiency. However, this effect on hops is still under investigation, and we do not yet have enough evidence and knowledge.

I would summarise this as being a story of modest interest, that it was perfectly reasonable for the BBC to report on (as it did) when the results of the study were published over five months ago. However, to my mind there is a very real question as to why the BBC is choosing now to re-hash a five-months old story. Nothing in this month’s article suggests that there have been recent developments. It’s not news, but old news. Perhaps the BBC didn’t have enough climate scare stories this week, so it fell back on an old one.

Perhaps it’s fair for the BBC to suggest that scientists are coming to the rescue, but again, context is everything. The reality seems to be not that traditional British hops are under threat from a changing climate, but a question of whether new types of hops with more intense flavours can be grown on British soil (whether under a changing climate or not). The answer to that question is, happily, in the affirmative, as the BBC’s recent article confirms:

The master brewer told BBC News: “The great news from my perspective is that 10 years ago, I was sceptical that we could produce intense flavours in hops in our climate.”

He added: “What I have seen is that absolutely we can.”

In other words, insofar as this story represents news, it is good news, yet the BBC chooses to make it a story about climate change. Interestingly, the section of the European Commissions website dealing with agriculture and rural development has a section devoted to hops, and it tells a rather different story to the alarmist one adopted by the BBC:

All over the world, but particularly in Europe, acreage is dwindling, one reason being the increasing yield of alpha acid and its decreasing use in beer. Alpha acid is the component of hops that gives beer its bitter taste and other flavours.

The EU produces about 50,000 tonnes of hops annually. Its alpha acid output regularly exceeds 5,000 tonnes.

Annual hop production worldwide varies between 80,000 and 100,000 tonnes, corresponding to between 8,000 and 10,000 tonnes of alpha acid. Demand for alpha acid is estimated at about 8,000 tonnes, on the basis that an average of 4.1g are needed per hectolitre of beer. Hop content varies depending on the type of beer concerned, particularly how bitter it is, and the variety of hop used. As a result of technological progress and consumers’ growing preference for less bitter beers, hop content is falling year by year (it still stood at 6.3g alpha per hectolitre in 1995).

Although world beer production is on the rise, demand for alpha acid is not increasing much. Since supply currently exceeds demand, average prices on the hop contract market and the free market have been fairly low since 2009.

In short, BBC, pull the other one.