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May 6, 2024 at 12:06PM

By Paul Homewood

 

 

This is a follow up to yesterday’s post on Steve Broderick’s work on the impact on the grid of EV charging.

Perhaps the first thing to note is that he is not the young student doing his PhD, which I think we all imagined. To put it kindly (!) he looks nearly as old as me!

In fact he has oodles of experience in engineering, and I gather he undertook the research for a PhD largely because he wanted to devote more of his time on the topic, not just for the qualification.

Since 2017 he has continued researching the issue, and had this paper published in 2020:

 

 

 

https://www.linkedin.com/in/steve-broderick-eng-d-8509a817/overlay/1593765190652/single-media-viewer/?profileId=ACoAAAOHQLwBKsbEQTarXHt-wb01mOtwvlDTiHI

His latest work backs up his original conclusions, that the LV network simply will not be able to handle large scale rollout of EVs.

His comment about heavier cars is relevant. I cannot comment on the harmonics issue, but I am sure plenty of readers will!

His latest figures reckon that EV charging could add 1820 kW for a 200 house system designed to supply 300 kW:

And he quotes 2012 costings of £62 bn for network reinforcement. You can double that for current prices, totting up to over £4000 per household.

One interesting conclusion is that Vehicle to Grid (V2G), that is draining power from EV batteries to power the grid, could make matters worse, as it would increase the charging time needed at night.

Heat Pumps

Finally, let’s take a broad look at the load requirements for heat pumps.

A few very simple assumptions:

• Average household gas consumption – 15000 KWh
• Average household electricity consumption replacing gas for heat pumps, hot water and cooking – 6000 KWh – most of this, say 5000 KWh will be used between October and March
• 5000 KWh over 6 months equals 28 KWh a day
• But during periods of extreme cold, this could peak at maybe 40 KWh, which = 1.66 kW

The above assumes that heat pumps are running on a continual basis through the day. It is quite likely, however, that DSR will lead to heat pumps being switched off at certain times of the day, thus increasing their consumption during other times, notably at night when EVs will also be charged.

As Broderick notes, most typical networks are rated at around 1.5 kW per house, so heat pumps will immediately lead to overload, even if there are no other appliances running. This obviously won’t be the case during day time and evening, and matters will be even worse at night when EVs are charging, even if there is a control system to share the load around.

It is important to point out of course that heat pumps are designed to work for long periods, as they only provide low heat. To expect them to adequately heat homes throughout the day on the basis of a few hours operation is pie in the sky.

For most houses therefore, estimated at 80% by Broderick, the LV network will not be able to support either EVs or heat pumps, never mind both together.

Timescales

 

Finally let’s deal with the problem of timescales. Broderick thinks that smart control could delay major spend for long periods.

I think this is not feasible. Since 2020, when the paper was published, the government’s plan to roll out EVs has become clear, with not only all new car sales to be electric by 2030, but also mandates for the vast majority to be so in years leading up to 2030.

Back in 2020, the plan was to ban ICEs only after 2040. What Broderick rightly saw as a problem for the distant future will soon be upon us.

Maybe smart control will be able to manage the problem for the next few years, but it certainly won’t when the majority of cars are electric, which won’t be long coming.

And therein lies the rub. To rip up roads, replace cables and upgrade substations will take years, probably decades. The job will have to start now, smart controls or not.

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May 6, 2024 at 11:47AM

Carbon dioxide is targeting same-sex couples. Climate Change Risk for LGBT People in the United States – Williams Institute

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May 6, 2024 at 10:37AM

Mark Steyn knows something about this movement and provides his usual cutting analysis of what is going on.  The article at his blog is The Three Rs, well worth reading.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Does anyone still talk about the Three Rs in education? That would be reading, writing and racism …whoops, my mistake, ‘rithmetic.

It isn’t difficult. Every weekend, my inbox fills up with readers demanding to know what I think about this or that news story, but in the end all the news stories are the same. Just from the last couple of days:

~At McGill University in Montreal, cute young predominantly female students in masks and keffiyehs take over the campus to demand “intifada until victory”;

~At the University of Texas in Austin, a comedian attempts to point out to members of Trans 4 Palestine the internal contradictions of the rainbow coalition, and for his pains gets beaten up;

~At Châteauroux in central France, fifteen-year-old Mathis Marchais is stabbed to death by an Afghan “migrant” known to the gendarmes for two previous stabbings earlier this year but loosed on the public by an indulgent judge just last Monday;

~In Hamburg, over a thousand protesters march through the streets calling for an Islamic caliphate in Germany.

The Three Rs: Read the Writing on the wall – and do the ‘Rithmetic. Like I said, it’s not difficult – although it seems to be for some of the willing dupes who brought us the western world’s new reality.

They belong to the “Official Jews” for whom mass Muslim immigration is less of a threat than those awkward types who point out the obvious consequences of mass Muslim immigration. The “Official Jews” are not confined to Canada: America is awash with them, as is the United Kingdom. And unless, as Kathy Shaidle used to say, they’re “too stupid to be Jewish” what’s happening cannot have come as a surprise. Me a zillion years ago:

Young Muslims do not like Jews: that is a simple fact, and it’s a waste of everybody’s time denying it. Where Muslims predominate, Jews vanish – as in Molenbeek, across the canal from downtown Brussels. I remember from my childhood the main drag, the Chaussée de Gand (or Steenweg op Gent, if you’re Flemish, as my mum was), as a bustling strip with many Jewish businesses. But in the first decade of the 21st century they all disappeared, and their former owners chose to remain silent – because it was easier that way.

And thus the seeming paradox of the post-war era – that, as a certain “niche Canadian” has been saying for years, the principal beneficiary of western Holocaust guilt was Islam. The Canadian Islamic Congress and America’s ADL and their European equivalents did not choose merely “to remain silent”: they enthusiastically welcomed it, and did their best to crush those who disagreed.

This isn’t about Jews, except insofar as they are presently
at the sharp end of a convulsive cultural shift.

About six months after 9/11, I took a little trip to Western Europe and the Middle East and, waiting for a friend in Vienna, I noticed that everybody going in and out of the maternity shop across the street appeared to be Muslim. That’s just anecdote, as the bien pensants who dismissed my book as “alarmist” like to say. But two decades on it’s borne out by statistics. Back then, Muslims made up of four per cent of Austria’s population; now it’s over eight per cent. Me, again years ago, from the expanded e-book edition of Mark Steyn’s Passing Parade:

According to the Vienna Institute of Demography, by mid-century a majority of Austrians under fifteen will be Muslim. This is a country that not so long ago was ninety percent Catholic. But “not so long ago” is another country:

Salzburg, 1938, singing nuns, Julie Andrews — “How do you solve a problem like Maria?”

Salzburg, 2038: How do you solve a problem like sharia?

“Eight per cent” doesn’t sound like a lot. But, in western societies of elderly native populations, they skew young, and make up an ever larger percentage of your youth – close to a majority in certain European cities. Jews, on the other hand, are old. So, for those cutesy coeds, young Muslims are all around and young Jews are very thin on the ground.

The salient feature of the demonstrations roiling McGill, Columbia and
other western campuses is not that the pasty blonde trustiefundies are
“pro-Palestinian” but that they’re cool with being culturally Islamic.

Oh, to be sure, it’s mostly just keffiyehs and a few other fashion accessories; not yet full body bags and clitoridectomies. But why wouldn’t it have a purchase on them that Mr Housefather’s bleatings about how everyone should feel safe do not? The young want to belong, and what they most want to belong to is the future – and they grasp instinctively where the future’s headed.

They also get that these guys mean it. It is not coincidental that white upscale females are now among the most enthusiastic proponents of Hamas. For two generations, their menfolk have made the mistake of believing all that What Women Want bollocks, and the result is legions of “new males”, metrosexuals, soyboys – or, alternatively, depressive methheads chugging back Bud Light down in the man-cave. Me again: “We have made a world of men that women don’t want and women that men don’t want, and that doesn’t seem likely to end well.”

And suddenly there’s Ahmed and Shahid doing their Sheik of Araby Xtreme Sports routine:

At night when you’re asleep
Into your tent I’ll creep.

Whatever the respective charms of abortion or same-sex marriage, both are a biological dead-end. So, more obliquely, is the interminable prolongation of education and the impact of mass immigration on affordable housing. All four lead to later – and smaller – family formation. So men and women who would have been twenty-seven-year-old suburban dads and mums are now on the frontlines at McGill picking out their keffiyehs. Throw in open borders – and, as the icing on the cake, encourage your middle-school girls to prioritise “gender identity” and thereby render themselves infertile.

So the fertility-rate comeback that David Frum predicted almost two decades ago failed to materialise. Indeed, all that has happened since then is that America has joined Europe in the demographic death-spiral.

Two decades back, there was still time to change course. Instead, the governments of the west doubled down on the madness, and today averting the inevitable requires measures they have no stomach for.  Yet, even as their parents drone on with their multiculti bromides, our youth get the reality: Queers 4 Palestine may be a delusion, but not as insane a delusion as “diversity is our strength”.

It’s not difficult: Do the math.

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May 6, 2024 at 10:00AM