Month: May 2024

NZ government accused of “war on the nature” as it cuts $100m environmental spending

New Zealand, Eagle Mountain, lake.

By Jo Nova

Just enjoy for the moment the small victory of what’s happening in democratic New Zealand. The Guardian is apoplectic, so we know it must be good:

The Guardian

But absent from the budget documents was any meaningful new spending on the climate crisis. Instead, dozens of climate-related initiatives, including programmes in the Emissions Reductions Plan and funding for data and evidence specialists were subject to sweeping cuts.

Notice how the critics are all so vague. Their big fear, and worst threat, is some unfashionable place called “backwards”:

The Labour opposition called the budget a “catastrophe” that was “taking us backwards”.

For some reason the opposition did not say “Lord help us, The NZ government will warm the world!” Mostly because it sounds too stupid to lay the point of all these policies right out there. I mean, as if they can say that cancelling the Māori knowledge-based approaches to agricultural emissions will cause more floods in 2070?

And in the end a warmer world isn’t exactly scary to New Zealanders like Ebola, poverty  or an armed invasion. Be afraid, you’ll get more beach weather!

The awful truth is that climate policies are just a fashion contest, so when they are taken away, the main downside is namecalling and a curse on your grandchildren. Like making witches angry or something?

Green party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick described the government as a “coalition of cowards” that was allowing the climate crisis to “rage on unchallenged” and whose attack on the climate would ripple through future generations. “The other day, government parties said, ‘drill, baby, drill,’ and today, they may as well have said, ‘burn, baby, burn’,” Swarbrick said…

Getting to the nitty gritty, this all sounds good. The new right leaning coalition has found good savings in troughing bureaucracies and flag waving green clubs. Amazing how fast these things breed:

      • $10million of funding has been scaled back for the Accelerator Wood Processing Growth Fund which supports wood processing capacity.
      • MBIE’s Circular Economy and Bioeconomy Strategy work is being stopped ‘as it is considered a low-value programme when compared with other work on climate change.’
      • $38 million is being cut from MBIE’s Energy portfolio programmes, including scaling down the Community Renewable Energy fund, and the Support for Energy Education in Communities Programme. It also includes discontinuing work on the Energy Emissions Reporting Scheme and cutting funding for small-scale distributed renewable energy and demand response systems.
      • $10million is being cut from MBIE’s Just Transitions programme.
      • Funding for the Climate Change Commission is being decreased by $15 million, including axing funding for the Commission’s agricultural emissions policy advisory function.
      • The budget includes a $35million reduction in climate change programmes including reducing funding for:
      • the Climate Change Development Fund
      • Climate Resilience for Māori initiative
      • Climate Change Chief Executives Board
      • implementation of the Carbon Neutral Government Programme
      • Climate Data Infrastructure
      • Enabling a Scaled-up, High Quality Voluntary Carbon Market
      • Cuts are being made to evidence and data functions, with less spending on consultants, external agencies, and specialists that supply evidence and data services ‘including updates to environmental standards, monitoring, reporting, policy work and science assurance.’ 
      • Additionally, as was well signalled early by Government, the budget confirms the axing of the Clean vehicle discount, saving $10 million. 

The new government will instead toss more funds at “climate resilience” and “disaster response”, which means adapting to the climate they already have.

But there is so much further to go: $2.6 billion of climate initiatives will roll over from previous the Climate Emergency Response Fund (CERF) set up by the previous government. So there will still be money wasted on EV chargers, electric buses, emissions measurement schemes, and foreign aid to dictators. It will take years to unwind the climate grift.

And when the Coalition are asked what they are doing for the climate, they point to the “climate resilience” funds instead of calling it pagan witchcraft and asking for hard observable evidence that CO2 causes any problem at all.  Have those UN committees ever been audited? Let’s set up a team to do that. I mean, if we care about the environment and the third world, we need climate models that work, right? No more of these unverified guesses.

Image by Ondřej Šponiar from Pixabay

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May 31, 2024 at 02:51PM

Offshore Wind “Wake Effect”

From MasterResource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

The media bias in favor of industrial wind turbines is a sight to behold. Simple reporting of the facts, from costs to environmental tradeoffs, could inform the public and voters to quite possibly eliminate the government gravy train that disadvantages virtually all of us. That is, everyone except for wind developers and other constituencies of the Climate Industrial Complex.

It is uncommon to see a break in the narrative of “the energy transition.” This was recently done at E&E News’s Energywire, “‘Wake effect’ could drain 38% of offshore wind power, study says“. This piece by Heather Richards (May 5, 2024) is worth revisiting at length. Key quotations follow:

The findings from national lab and university researchers upend assumptions about how turbines interact with each other.

Wind turbines off the East Coast might significantly drain energy from each other, lowering the power output of an offshore farm by up to 38 percent, according to a new study that challenges early assumptions about the nascent industry’s electricity contribution.

The findings add to growing research about the “wake effect,” which is when offshore turbines in close proximity affect each other’s energy output.

Researchers from the University of Colorado and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) found that entire wind farms can impede neighboring projects, decreasing the power production of adjacent farms by up to 15 percent under some conditions.

———————

In the research paper, “New offshore wind turbines can take away energy from existing ones,” Science Direct reports on the findings, with the authors offering apologetics (“We need a diverse mix of clean energy sources to meet the demand and decarbonize the grid”) and (“With better predictions of wind energy, we can achieve more reliance on renewable energy”). The article states:

In a new paper published March 14 in the journal Wind Energy Science, a team led by Dave Rosencrans, a doctoral student, and Julie K. Lundquist, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, estimate that offshore wind turbines in the Atlantic Ocean region, where the U.S. plans to build large wind farms, could take away wind from other turbines nearby, potentially reducing the farms’ power output by more than 30%.

Accounting for this so-called “wake effect,” the team estimated that the proposed wind farms could still supply approximately 60% of the electricity demand of the New England grid, which covers Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

“The U.S. is planning to build thousands of offshore wind turbines, so we need to predict when those wakes will be expensive and when they have little effect,” said Lundquist, who is also a fellow at CU Boulder’s Renewable and Sustainable Energy Institute.

When wind passes through turbines, the ones at the front, or upstream, extract some energy from the wind. As a result, the wind slows down and becomes more turbulent behind the turbines. This means the turbines downstream get slower wind, sometimes resulting in lower power generation.

The wake effect is particularly prominent offshore, because there are no houses or trees that stir up the air, which helps dissipate the wakes, said Rosencrans, the paper’s first author.

Using computer simulations and observational data of the atmosphere, the team calculated that the wake effect reduces total power generation by 34% to 38% at a proposed wind farm off the East Coast. Most of the reduction comes from wakes formed between turbines within a single farm.

But under certain weather conditions, wakes could reach turbines as far as 55 kilometers downwind and affect other wind farms. For example, during hot summer days, the airflow over the cool sea surface tends to be relatively stable, causing wakes to persist for longer periods and propagate over longer distances.

There is another problem for offshore wind ….

“Unfortunately, summer is when there’s a lot of electrical demand,” Rosencrans said. “We showed that wakes are going to have a significant impact on power generation. But if we can predict their effects and anticipate when they are going to happen, then we can manage them on the electrical grid.”

Compared with energy sources derived from fossil fuels, wind and solar power tend to be variable, because the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow. This variability creates a challenge for grid operators, said Lundquist. The power grid is a complex system that requires a perfect balance of supply and demand in real-time. Any imbalances could lead to devastating blackouts, like what happened in Texas in 2021 when power outages killed nearly 250 people.

To better understand how the wind blows in the proposed wind farm area, Lundquist’s team visited islands off the New England coast and installed a host of instruments last December as part of the Department of Energy’s Wind Forecast Improvement Project 3. The project is a collaboration of researchers from CU Boulder, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute and several other national laboratories.

The instruments, including weather monitors and radar sensors, will collect data for the next year or more. Previously, offshore wind power prediction models usually relied on intermittent data from ships and satellite observations. The hope is that with continuous data directly from the ocean, scientists can improve prediction models and better integrate more offshore wind energy into the grid.

Or not. Wind is the perfect imperfect energy for the grid, and offshore wind more so.

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May 31, 2024 at 01:01PM

ClimateTV Live: Hurricane Season Begins: Bigger and Badder? – The Climate Realism Show #112 1pm ET, 10 am PT

The Heartland Institute

Hurricane Season 2024 officially kicks off Saturday, June 1 and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a more-active-than-normal season in the Atlantic. The agency is “85% certain” that we’ll have 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes this year.

Episode #112 of The Climate Realism Show will feature two of America’s best hurricane experts — meteorologists Joe Bastardi and Stanley Goldenberg — to talk about these predictions, and what it will mean for the East and Gulf coasts of the United States.

Tune for our live-stream of the show at 1 p.m. ET (noon CT) to listen to these experts, and leave your own questions for them in the chat. The Climate Realism Show Host Anthony Watts and regular panelists H. Sterling Burnett and Linnea Lueken will also cover, as usual, the Crazy Climate News of the week.

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May 31, 2024 at 11:31AM

Does a country has ever been able to run entirely on renewables?

On this blog, I already looked in some rather confusing fact-checks. There is for example the fact-checker who was struggling to find an example of someone actually making the claim he is fact-checking and the fact-checker who fact-checked a entirely different claim than he was set to do. I think there is a new contender in the latter category. This post will be about the ABC news fact-check titled:

Dick Smith says no country has ever been able to run entirely on renewables. Is that correct?”.

That is an interesting question! Although it would be simple to answer this question (just name the countries that have been able to run entirely on renewables), I had not much hope that it would be answered in this fact-check.

First some background. The claim comes from Dick Smith (an Australian entrepreneur and aviator) who made this claim in a 2GB radio interview as a reaction to the news that former labor MP Jennie George stated that Australia needs to look at nuclear because you can’t run a first world economy on renewables alone. This is Dick Smith’s reaction:

Look, I can tell you, this claim by the CSIRO that you can run a whole country on solar and wind is simply a lie. It is not true. They are telling lies. No country has ever been able to run entirely on renewables – that’s impossible. So, we should be making a decision to go nuclear now.

So, to me it seems when Dick Smith talked about “renewables”, he meant solar and wind. I think most will know the answer to the question being fact-checked, but I became very curious how the fact-checker could wiggle himself out of that.

To his credit, the fact-checker asked feedback from Dick Smith and amended the fact-check accordingly, but unfortunately even that didn’t help his case whatsoever.

Tasmania
Let’s look at the first expert that the fact-checker presents. It is Mark Diesendorf who teaches sustainable energy and energy policy at the University of New South Wales. He obviously disagrees with Dick Smith, saying that “several countries (and Tasmania) already run their electricity grid on 100% renewables” and adding that they heavily rely on hydro power to achieve that.

Sure, but the fact-check is about the claim whether an entire country has ever been able to run entirely on renewables (meaning actually done that for all energy needs), not whether a country’s electricity grid could possibly run on renewables (meaning potentially just powering the grid). Which are two different questions.

But then, does Tasmania runs entirely on renewables, even when just focusing on the electricity grid? Looking at the energy in Tasmania, besides the combo solar/wind/hydro, there are also gas and import of electricity via the Basslink interconnector, connecting Tasmania with Victoria (whichcurrently relies for more than half on coal).

Yet, their energy minister declared Tasmania entirely self-sufficient on renewables:

In a statement released on Friday, Tasmanian energy minister Guy Barnett said that state had effectively become entirely self-sufficient for supplies of renewable electricity, provided by the state’s wind and hydroelectricity projects.

How a grid could be 100% self-sufficient on renewables while gas and import are also in the mix, is explained a bit later in the article:

“When the final two turbines are commissioned at Granville Harbour, Tasmania will have access to 10,741 GWh of renewable generating capacity – well above our average annual electricity demand of 10,500 GWh,” Barnett added.

Aha! The “entirely self-sufficient for supplies of renewable electricity” doesn’t mean that Tasmanian grid could run on solar/wind/hydro alone, it means that solar/wind/hydro in Tasmania produce more than the annual average electricity demand, irrespective of the generated electricity actually is consumed in Tasmania. I would not call that 100% self-reliance on renewables.

Science or Advocacy?
The second expert is Adrew Blakers, a professor of engineering at the Australian National University’s Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster solutions.. I recognize that name and unfortunately he seems to make a habit of making misleading statements.

The paper “100% renewable electricity in Australia” started with a graph showing the rapid growth of the installed capacity of solar PV and wind compared to other energy sources between 2014 and 2016. Fossil fuel capacity additions decreased while solar strongly increased and wind somewhat increased. Although the article is about Australia, the data in that graph is about the world. Recreating the graph for Australia showed that additions in that same period decreased, so referring to world data in a paper on Australia seem to be the better option to keep up the narrative.

He did similar things in a Conversation article, in which he compared (worldwide) additions of solar and wind capacity (60%) to all other power sources (40%) in order to prove the “dominance of PV and wind”. He however didn’t explain that the capacity factors of the other power sources are higher than solar and wind, so the actual production of those additions are lower for solar and wind compared to the rest.

In that same article, there is a graph showing the extrapolated exponential growth of (worldwide) solar and wind. However, the trend until that point showed a decreasing growth. That increasing exponential growth was most likely obtained by using the average of a decreasing growth and then use this average to extrapolate an increasing growth trend

The advocacy seems strong in this expert and I don’t know where his science ends and his advocacy begins in his articles and paper. Also, the fact-check is not about whether a country can power its grid by renewables, but whether a country has ever been run on renewables for all its energy needs.

The four proposed countries
The third expert is Mark Jacobson who provides a list of four countries having a grid that is 100% powered by solar, wind and hydro in 2021: Albania, Bhutan, Nepal and Paraguay. Fine, but that is not the claim that is being fact-checked.

Dick Smith replied in the article that in 2021 renewables in Albania contributed 33.7% of the energy supply, 37.5% in Paraguay and 6.1% in Nepal.

AEMO chimes in
The fact-checker also gives the floor to the Australian Enery Market Operator (AEMO). They assured him that “renewables will be able to meet the entire demand of the national electricity market (NEM) by 2025, albeit for short periods of time (for example, 30 minutes)”.

Wonderful, only pity that there are 24 hours in one day, that they are talking about a forecast (not something that has already been done) and only about powering the grid (not all energy needs).

The wiggling out
That is pretty bad for the fact-check. How does the fact-checker finally wiggles himself out of this pickle? Well, by saying that it doesn’t matter anyway. He brings up the Grattan Institute claiming that Australia should only commit to “net zero emissions” (not “absolute zero emissions” or “100% renewable energy”) and this doesn’t require that all electricity used within a country comes from renewables (some might even come from coal or gas).

That is really ingenious, but there is however one tiny little problem with this fact-check. Remember, this is the statement that is being fact-checked:

The fact-check is about a statement of Dick Smith and none of those experts brought up in the fact-check showed that this statement is wrong. The only answer to the question “Which country has ever been able to run on renewables alone” is that no country has ever been able to do that yet, but the fact-checker skillfully evaded answering that question.

Basically, the fact-check is a most elaborate way of explaining that Dick Smith is correct, this while avoiding actually saying that Dick Smith is correct.

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May 31, 2024 at 11:25AM