Month: May 2024

Climate Change Weekly #506: Climate at a Glance Videos: Climate Fact Checks for Youths

H. Sterling Burnett

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IN THIS ISSUE:

  • Climate at a Glance Videos: Climate Fact Checks for Youths
  • Video of the Week: Rethinking the Climate Change Consensus
  • Scientists Are Ignoring CO2 Data That Is Inconvenient to the Alarmist Narrative
  • Carbon Capture Raises Energy Prices While Reducing the Power Produced
  • Podcast of the Week: CLIMATE CULT COLLAPSE – The People and the Market Speak Their Mind
  • Climate Comedy
  • Recommended Sites

Watch ALL the Presentations by the ALL-STARS of Climate Realism at the Archive of Heartland’s 15 Climate Conferences


Climate at a Glance Videos: Climate Fact Checks for Youths

The Heartland Institute has been a leading voice promoting sound science, economics, and policies concerning the issue of supposed human-caused climate change, in print, on radio and television, online, and at conferences and hearings.

Both independently and in conjunction with other experts and groups, we have published thorough peer-reviewed scientific studies and short booklets, like Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming, and lengthy, copiously referenced multi-authored, tomes in the multi-volume Climate Change Reconsidered  series produced by the Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change. We’ve also published original research demonstrating the flawed nature of the existing ground-based temperature measuring system which supplies biased temperature data for the United States and is incorporated into larger data sets and used to claim humans are causing unnatural rapid global warming.

Daily we published items at Climate Realism which refute the climate disaster du jour  hyped by the mainstream media as further proof humans are causing a climate crisis. With this issue, we have now published 506 issues of Climate Change Weekly  discussing climate science, economic, and policy matters that are being ignored by the mainstream media, politicians, and in many respects by academia. Often the scientific studies discussed in CCW indicate that much less is known about the causes and consequences of climate change than the purveyors and mongers of climate doom would have the world believe. These studies often suggest that climate change is driven by factors other than human energy use, that the Earth has experienced warming and cooling before, and that there is no climate catastrophe in the offing.

Heartland has hosted 15 international conferences on climate change, bringing together climate scientists, economists, political scientists, philosophers, and politicians to present and discuss the facts of climate change and the impacts of policies aimed at preventing it. These conferences were recorded and are available online for eternity.

Our most recent, ongoing educational effort is Climate at a Glance (CAAG), both the booklet for teachers and students, and the series of factual posts being updated regularly at the CAAG website, which concisely summarizes topical climate issues, providing the most important, accurate, and powerful information. The CAAG site is designed to provide a library of solid yet simple examinations of climate facts that legislators, teachers, students, and laymen can easily access to become factually informed on a topic, and to refute the exaggerations of the so-called “climate crisis.”

Our most recent educational effort is our growing foray into livestream and video presentations of climate change on YouTube and other social media platforms. Linnea Lueken, Jim Lakely, and myself, among others, have recorded a series of stand-alone videos discussing various climate and energy topics that are getting increasing amounts of attention. Our weekly hour-long Climate Realism  livestream show recently aired its 109th episode to an audience of more than 600 viewers. Thousands, sometimes tens of thousands, more people watch the show online in the days and weeks following its live airing.

Which brings me to the newest in our series of videos. Evidence suggests many busy adults and youths get their information from non-traditional “new” media platforms, like podcasts and videos.

Youths, the research and surveys suggest, don’t get their information through traditional news outlets, be it television or radio news programs or newspapers and magazines, rather they get their information in byte-sized chunks (pun fully intended) through channels like Tik Tok, X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube. Accordingly, Heartland understands that if we wish to educate youths—the next generation of American leaders and decision makers—concerning the truth about climate change and the dangers of climate alarm, we have to reach them where they live, access information, and exchange information with their friends and peers. Thus, we are expanding our online presence with a series of short, one-to-three-minute videos discussing climate topics in a pithy, fun, accessible, but still accurate, way. These videos are accessible on the platforms that kids get their information from.

Linnea Lueken, with contributions from Heartland’s media department, has produced a series of more than 30, three minute or less, topical fact-check videos on climate change, using CAAG as the information base. We will be releasing one or two of these videos each week over the coming months.

The series was launched this week with videos discussing the truth about climate change and the hazards facing coral reefs (hint: climate change isn’t prominent among them or causing their decline, despite what breathless media headlines regularly assert), and the second refuting the oft-repeated dogmatic tenant of the climate alarm narrative, that there is a scientific consensus that humans are causing a climate crisis—there isn’t. Within a day of their release, both videos had reached an audience in the thousands. As I write, Linnea’s brief coral reef video has been viewed more than 5,700 times, and her climate consensus video has been viewed an astounding, outstanding 28,000 times—all in the space of a single day, with no media attention or promotion.

We want to keep this success going and the reach of the videos growing. This requires your help. Algorithms operating on YouTube, Facebook, and other social media platforms regularly suppress or attempt to suppress climate realists’ videos and materials. Heartland’s videos are among those that have been blocked, labeled, or forced down multiple levels in search engine responses in the past, making it difficult if not impossible to find them. You can help us avoid the climate blacklist. I’m making a plea for you to go and watch our current CAAG fact checks on coral reefs and the so-called climate consensus, push the like button, and share the videos with your friends and colleagues so you can help us defeat the algorithms which have suppressed Heartland’s climate realist message in the past, and to expand the reach of our message. Every like and share makes it harder for the platforms’ algorithms to justify suppressing the videos.

Second, I ask you to look out for the release of the new videos in the series each week. And if you find them informative and entertaining, as I believe you will, once again, like and share them as they are released.

Finally, and I don’t believe I’ve ever done this before, I’m asking you to support Heartland’s work with a donation. No donation is too small. It is only through the support of our donors that we can keep Heartland’s content and messaging going. Your donation, whether in support of Climate Change Weekly,  our new series of CAAG videos, or our other worthwhile efforts, will go to expand the reach of our message, in order to fight against bad legislation and regulations, and promote sound policies that simultaneously promote U.S. energy dominance, environmental quality, and individual freedom.

In short, keep reading, view those videos, share and like them, and cut a check. Any or all of these will help. Thanks for considering my request.

Sources: Climate at a Glance;  Are Coral Reefs Disappearing?;  Rethinking the Climate Change Consensus


NEW: Get Climate at a Glance on your mobile device!


Video of the Week

Is there a scientific consensus that says we should be worried about a looming climate catastrophe? No. A majority of scientists may believe Earth’s climate is changing, but most are not all that alarmed.


Read the brutal truth about how battery production for electric vehicles cause immense environmental destruction and human tragedy.


Scientists Are Ignoring CO2 Data That Is Inconvenient to the Alarmist Narrative

One of the common methods of reconstructing/estimating past temperatures is through the use of stomatal analysis, examining plant stomata—the pores found in the epidermis of leaves, stems, and other organs—which control the rate of gas exchange, including transpiration, between the internal air spaces of the leaf and the atmosphere. It is known that as temperatures and/or carbon dioxide increase plant stomata close or shrink, which improves water use efficiency.

As No Tricks Zone notes, temperature reconstructions derived from plant stomatal analysis have been common and widely accepted as providing valid paleoclimate reconstructions of historic atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. He provides a partial literature review of recent peer-reviewed studies which undertake such reconstructions. One such example he cites comes from the March 2024 edition of the journal Paleoworld.

For example, in a new study, 100-150 million-year-old stomata samples from Iran are shown to re-confirm global atmospheric CO2 levels hit 1,100 to 1,700 ppm during the Jurassic period. The authors proudly showcase how consistently their stomata-derived CO2 measurements compare to several other reconstructions reaching the same conclusion about past CO2 concentrations.

However, No Tricks Zone notes, when it comes to stomatal estimates of CO2 in more recent times, the climate science community largely ignores it, suggesting that while stomatal reconstruction of the past are fine, reconstructions of present CO2 levels are invalid. Why? No Tricks Zone surmises it is because they suggest the recent increase CO2 concentrations weren’t solely driven by human activities but rather nature contributed, perhaps in response to warming conditions.

No Tricks Zone writes about one 2022 paper, for example, published in the journal Science of Climate Change,  noting how its analysis is treated differently than much more limited ice core re-analyses of CO2:

Dr. Ernst-Georg Beck’s compiled research with plant stomata-derived CO2 measurements was posthumously published in 2022. It’s an exhaustively-referenced paper detailing 97,404 direct near-ground measurement from 901 stations situated across the world, in both hemispheres. (This is very much unlike the ice core CO2 record in which only one continental location, Antarctica, is used; and yet this local record – contradicted by Greenland ice cores – is regarded as “global.”)

The research was recorded in 292 scientific papers (77 authors) covering stomata-derived direct CO2 measurements for the industrial era, 1800-1960.

These database compilations – ~60,000 global-scale measurements between the 1930s and 1950s alone – consistently show CO2 hit 380 ppm in 1943 and 372 ppm in 1950, with very small error margins after about 1870.

The currently accepted CO2 values for 1943 and 1950 are instead recorded as 310 ppm, and the 372 to 380 ppm values are not assumed to have been achieved until the mid-2000s. A data-driven portrayal of a decadal-scale decline in CO2 after the 1940s peak (shown in Fig. 24) contradicts the viewpoint that sharply rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 1945 led to tandemly increasing CO2 concentrations. Consequently, these direct CO2 measurements – tens of thousands of them from across the world – are rejected by the gatekeepers of the humans-did-it narrative.

Further, the stomata-derived CO2 values also indicate the temperature is the leading factor determining the CO2 concentration, with the CO2 changes correlationally (r = 0.67) lagging the temperature changes by about a year. This once again conflicts with the conclusion that CO2 levels are determined by anthropogenic emissions.

Climate alarmists, such as the scientists participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have largely ignored or dismissed stomatal analysis of recent years’ CO2 when describing and presenting in graphical form the recent CO2 rise data and comparisons to recent temperature rise. Ignoring an independent source of data is unjustified scientifically, although, since as Climate RealismClimate at a Glance, and Climate Change Weekly  have shown, climate alarm is largely not based on science but rather political considerations, such as comity, consensus, funding, and the power that it brings. It is perhaps not surprising that data inconvenient to the narrative humans are causing climate change is ignored by the media and in the literature cited by government bodies.

Sources: No Tricks ZoneScience of Climate Change


Heartland’s Must-read Climate Sites


Poll Shows American’s Still Rank Climate Change as a Low Priority

Frits Byron Soepyan, Ph.D., a research and science associate with the CO2 Coalition, recently produced an economic and power analysis of the Biden administration’s new power plant rule mandating 90 percent carbon capture on existing coal plant and new and upgraded natural gas plants.

It turns out the added costs will likely make the power plants uneconomic, especially since it will of necessity reduce the electric power output available for sale. It turns out the process of carbon capture itself requires a lot of power, reducing the electricity available to the grid.

Soepyan’s analysis uses the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) cost and performance estimates for retrofitting existing coal power plants with Shell’s CANSOLV CO2 capture system. Soepyan writes:

NETL’s baseline coal power plant had a net output of 650 megawatts (MW). But after retrofitting it with the CO2 capture system, the power output was reduced by 24% to 495 MW. In terms of money, the retrofit cost is about $988 million, or about $2 million/MW of net power output. …

Based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of March 2024, the United States has 148 coal power plants in operation in the electric utility sector, with an average capacity of about 139,000 MW. Of these, 36 plants plan to retire completely on or before December 2040 and 8 plants plan to retire at least one steam turbine on or before December 2034, but not entirely. Taking the difference of 148 and 36, there are 112 coal power plants in the United States without any planned retirement year, having a total average capacity of about 96,000 MW.

Using the NETL estimates, if we were to retrofit these 112 coal power plants to enable 90% carbon capture, the 24% net power output reduction would bring electricity production down to about 73,000 MW. Applying the retrofit cost of about $2 million/MW of net power output to the plants’ reduced power output, we arrive at a projected cost of about $146 billion.

So, you are adding billions of dollars in cost to ratepayers’ power bills, while producing less power. And based on the evidence so far, the coal power plants—normally a reliable, dispatchable source of electric power—will become less so since, in testing, carbon capture systems are prone to regular breakdowns and failures—which is why the guinea pig-power plants using them in testing wound up shutting down; too many breakdowns.

And, of course that’s just the impact on coal power generation. Soepyan points out that the new rule also applies to new and refurbished gas plants, adding 78 percent to their costs, while reducing power output by 11 percent.

In the end, with any luck, this new rule will go the way of the previous Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan and never come into effect because federal courts will stay or block the rule. Twenty-Seven states, the National Mining Association, and the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association have filed lawsuits challenging the rule.

Source: CO2 Coalition


Podcast of the Week

On episode 109 of The Climate Realism Show​, we look at two recent polls that show climate change opinion is sharply waning in its perception as a threat to the public. At the same time, ESG funds have essentially collapsed as investors pull their money.

Subscribe to the Environment & Climate News podcast on Apple PodcastsiHeartSpotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And be sure to leave a positive review!


Climate Comedy


Recommended Sites

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May 17, 2024 at 02:26PM

Why We Still Need Fossil Fuels, Despite Reuters Propaganda

By Paul Homewood

 

Today’s misinformation from Reuters, who once upon a time used to be a trusted source of news:

 

 image

Wind farms have been the primary source of electricity in the United Kingdom for the past two consecutive quarters, marking the longest stretch on record that renewable energy has surpassed fossil fuels in U.K. electricity generation.

Total electricity generation from wind sources during the first three months of 2024 was 25.3 terawatt hours (TWh), compared to 23.6 TWh from all fossil fuel sources, according to data from energy think tank Ember.

Wind power accounted for an average of 39.4% of total electricity during the first quarter of 2024, compared to 36.2% from fossil fuels.

Wind output also exceeded fossil fuel-powered output during the final quarter of 2023, marking the first time that wind power has generated more electricity than fossil fuel plants in the U.K. for consecutive quarters.

When combined with output from solar farms, total electricity output from renewable sources in the U.K. was 27.1 TWh during Q1 2024, the highest quarterly total ever for the U.K. and a record 42.2% share of total electricity generation.

WIND LULL OVER SUMMER

Due to seasonal lulls in wind speeds during the summer, that renewable electricity generation total may start to decline over the coming months.

In 2023, wind generation during the second and third quarters were 46% and 34% lower respectively than during the first quarter, and similar declines in wind generation are possible in 2024 if normal wind speed patterns unfold.

Higher solar output during sunnier periods will offset some of the decline from wind farms, as solar output in the U.K. tends to peak at around 5 TWh during the second quarter of the year, compared to just below 2 TWh during the first quarter.

But as wind farms typically generate roughly six times more electricity than solar farms in the U.K., total renewable generation is still likely to dip notably during the middle of 2024.

Utilities looking to keep fossil fuel use to a minimum during the summer may deploy greater quantities of electricity generated by nuclear reactors, bioenergy facilities and hydro dams to ensure total generation loads remain stable.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/wind-overtakes-fossil-fuels-uk-electricity-generation-maguire-2024-04-23/

It has utterly no relevance at all how much electricity wind power produced over the quarter. What is relevant is that we still needed a full fleet of CCGT stations to fill the gap when the wind did not blow.

Their naivety in believing that you can simply tap into nuclear power in summer is shocking, coming as it does from an outfit that advises the imbecile Ed Miliband. Nuclear plants cannot be switched on and off in this way, and certainly would not be economical.

That is why we are still wholly reliant on natural gas to provide enough electricity when we need it.

image

https://gridwatch.co.uk/demand

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May 17, 2024 at 01:28PM

ClimateTV – Climate Facts: The Videos

On episode 110 of The Climate Realism Show, we are going to highlight some new ammunition for our side in the “climate war”, notably the website, Climate at a Glance which is now updated with videos and an app for your phone.

Research fellow, Linnea Lueken has produced several companion videos to go with each page at ClimateataGlance.com, we’ll preview the first two this week. Plus, we’ll discuss our new app.

Join host Anthony Watts, The Heartland Institute’s H. Sterling Burnett, and Linnea Lueken for the preview.

And, as always, we have the Crazy Climate News of the Week. Join us LIVE at 1 p.m. ET (12 p.m. CT) for the kind of climate realism you can’t find anywhere else, and join the chat to get your questions answered, too.

Watch LIVE or recorded later HERE

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May 17, 2024 at 11:34AM

Why Unintended Consequences from Pushing Green Energy

We have been treated to multiple reports of negative consequences unforeseen by policymakers pushing the Green Energy agenda. A sample of the range:

Ford ready to restrict UK sales of petrol models to hit electric targets, Financial Times

Why US offshore wind energy is struggling—the good, the bad and the opportunity, Tech Xplore

Another solar farm destroyed by a hail storm—this time in Texas, OK Energy Today

Storm Ravages World’s Largest Floating Solar Plant, Western Journal

DOE Finalizes Efficiency Standards for Clothes Washers and Dryers, Energy.Gov

Strict new EPA rules would force coal-fired power plants to capture emissions or shut down, AP news

Companies Are Balking at the High Costs of Running Electric Trucks, Wall Street Journal

Landmark wind turbine noise ruling from High Court referred to attorney general, Irish Times

Etc., Etc.

These reports point to regulators again attempting to force social and economic behavorial changes against human and physical forces opposing the goals. A detailed explanation of one such failure follows.

Background Post:  Why Raising Auto Fuel (CAFE) Standards Failed

There are deeper reasons why US auto fuel efficiency standards are counterproductive and should be rolled back.  They were instituted in denial of regulatory experience and science.  First, a parallel from physics.

In the sub-atomic domain of quantum mechanics, Werner Heisenberg, a German physicist, determined that our observations have an effect on the behavior of quanta (quantum particles).

The Heisenberg uncertainty principle states that it is impossible to know simultaneously the exact position and momentum of a particle. That is, the more exactly the position is determined, the less known the momentum, and vice versa. This principle is not a statement about the limits of technology, but a fundamental limit on what can be known about a particle at any given moment. This uncertainty arises because the act of measuring affects the object being measured. The only way to measure the position of something is using light, but, on the sub-atomic scale, the interaction of the light with the object inevitably changes the object’s position and its direction of travel.

Now skip to the world of governance and the effects of regulation. A similar finding shows that the act of regulating produces reactive behavior and unintended consequences contrary to the desired outcomes.

US Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards Have Backfired

An article at Financial Times explains about Energy Regulations Unintended Consequences  Excerpts below with my bolds.

Goodhart’s Law holds that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes”. Originally coined by the economist Charles Goodhart as a critique of the use of money supply measures to guide monetary policy, it has been adopted as a useful concept in many other fields. The general principle is that when any measure is used as a target for policy, it becomes unreliable. It is an observable phenomenon in healthcare, in financial regulation and, it seems, in energy efficiency standards.

When governments set efficiency regulations such as the US Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for vehicles, they are often what is called “attribute-based”, meaning that the rules take other characteristics into consideration when determining compliance. The Cafe standards, for example, vary according to the “footprint” of the vehicle: the area enclosed by its wheels. In Japan, fuel economy standards are weight-based. Like all regulations, fuel economy standards create incentives to game the system, and where attributes are important, that can mean finding ways to exploit the variations in requirements. There have long been suspicions that the footprint-based Cafe standards would encourage manufacturers to make larger cars for the US market, but a paper this week from Koichiro Ito of the University of Chicago and James Sallee of the University of California Berkeley provided the strongest evidence yet that those fears are likely to be justified.

Mr Ito and Mr Sallee looked at Japan’s experience with weight-based fuel economy standards, which changed in 2009, and concluded that “the Japanese car market has experienced a notable increase in weight in response to attribute-based regulation”. In the US, the Cafe standards create a similar pressure, but expressed in terms of size rather than weight. Mr Ito suggested that in Ford’s decision to end almost all car production in North America to focus on SUVs and trucks, “policy plays a substantial role”. It is not just that manufacturers are focusing on larger models; specific models are also getting bigger. Ford’s move, Mr Ito wrote, should be seen as an “alarm bell” warning of the flaws in the Cafe system. He suggests an alternative framework with a uniform standard and tradeable credits, as a more effective and lower-cost option. With the Trump administration now reviewing fuel economy and emissions standards, and facing challenges from California and many other states, the vehicle manufacturers appear to be in a state of confusion. An elegant idea for preserving plans for improving fuel economy while reducing the cost of compliance could be very welcome.

The paper is The Economics of Attribute-Based Regulation: Theory and Evidence from Fuel-Economy Standards Koichiro Ito, James M. Sallee NBER Working Paper No. 20500.  The authors explain:

An attribute-based regulation is a regulation that aims to change one characteristic of a product related to the externality (the “targeted characteristic”), but which takes some other characteristic (the “secondary attribute”) into consideration when determining compliance. For example, Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards in the United States recently adopted attribute-basing. Figure 1 shows that the new policy mandates a fuel-economy target that is a downward-sloping function of vehicle “footprint”—the square area trapped by a rectangle drawn to connect the vehicle’s tires.  Under this schedule, firms that make larger vehicles are allowed to have lower fuel economy. This has the potential benefit of harmonizing marginal costs of regulatory compliance across firms, but it also creates a distortionary incentive for automakers to manipulate vehicle footprint.

Attribute-basing is used in a variety of important economic policies. Fuel-economy regulations are attribute-based in China, Europe, Japan and the United States, which are the world’s four largest car markets. Energy efficiency standards for appliances, which allow larger products to consume more energy, are attribute-based all over the world. Regulations such as the Clean Air Act, the Family Medical Leave Act, and the Affordable Care Act are attribute-based because they exempt some firms based on size. In all of these examples, attribute-basing is designed to provide a weaker regulation for products or firms that will find compliance more difficult.

Summary from Heritage Foundation study Fuel Economy Standards Are a Costly Mistake Excerpt with my bolds.

The CAFE standards are not only an extremely inefficient way to reduce carbon dioxide emission but will also have a variety of unintended consequences.

For example, the post-2010 standards apply lower mileage requirements to vehicles with larger footprints. Thus, Whitefoot and Skerlos argued that there is an incentive to increase the size of vehicles.

Data from the first few years under the new standard confirm that the average footprint, weight, and horsepower of cars and trucks have indeed all increased since 2008, even as carbon emissions fell, reflecting the distorted incentives.

Manufacturers have found work-arounds to thwart the intent of the regulations. For example, the standards raised the price of large cars, such as station wagons, relative to light trucks. As a result, automakers created a new type of light truck—the sport utility vehicle (SUV)—which was covered by the lower standard and had low gas mileage but met consumers’ needs. Other automakers have simply chosen to miss the thresholds and pay fines on a sliding scale.

Another well-known flaw in CAFE standards is the “rebound effect.” When consumers are forced to buy more fuel-efficient vehicles, the cost per mile falls (since their cars use less gas) and they drive more. This offsets part of the fuel economy gain and adds congestion and road repair costs. Similarly, the rising price of new vehicles causes consumers to delay upgrades, leaving older vehicles on the road longer.

In addition, the higher purchase price of cars under a stricter CAFE standard is likely to force millions of households out of the new-car market altogether. Many households face credit constraints when borrowing money to purchase a car. David Wagner, Paulina Nusinovich, and Esteban Plaza-Jennings used Bureau of Labor Statistics data and typical finance industry debt-service-to-income ratios and estimated that 3.1 million to 14.9 million households would not have enough credit to purchase a new car under the 2025 CAFE standards.[34] This impact would fall disproportionately on poorer households and force the use of older cars with higher maintenance costs and with fuel economy that is generally lower than that of new cars.

CAFE standards may also have redistributed corporate profits to foreign automakers and away from Ford, General Motors (GM), and Chrysler (the Big Three), because foreign-headquartered firms tend to specialize in vehicles that are favored under the new standards.[35] 

Conclusion

CAFE standards are costly, inefficient, and ineffective regulations. They severely limit consumers’ ability to make their own choices concerning safety, comfort, affordability, and efficiency. Originally based on the belief that consumers undervalued fuel economy, the standards have morphed into climate control mandates. Under any justification, regulation gives the desires of government regulators precedence over those of the Americans who actually pay for the cars. Since the regulators undervalue the well-being of American consumers, the policy outcomes are predictably harmful.

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May 17, 2024 at 11:05AM