Due to a 2020 shipping regulation…’The net planetary heat uptake has increased by 0.25 Wm−2 since 2020, making the 0.2 Wm−2 due to IMO2020 nearly 80% of the total increase.’ The study also says: ‘The 2023 record warmth is within the ranges of our expected trajectory. The magnitude of IMO2020 induced warming means that the observed strong warming in 2023 will be a new norm in the 2020 s.’ — Two general comments to make here: (1) cloud physics is admitted to be not well understood, and (2) could night-time clear(er) skies mean (more) cooling, in theory at least?
– – –
An 80% reduction in sulphur dioxide shipping emissions observed in early 2020 could be associated with substantial atmospheric warming over some ocean regions, according to a modelling study published in Communications Earth & Environment.
The sudden decline in emissions was a result of the introduction of the International Maritime Organization’s 2020 regulation (IMO 2020), which reduced the maximum sulphur content allowed in shipping fuel from 3.5% to 0.5% to help reduce air pollution, says EurekAlert.
Fuel oil used for large ships has a significantly higher percentage content of sulphur than fuels used in other vehicles. Burning this fuel produces sulphur dioxide, which reacts with water vapour in the atmosphere to produce sulphate aerosols.
These aerosols cool the Earth’s surface in two ways: by directly reflecting sunlight back to space [Talkshop comment – daytime effect only]; and by affecting cloud cover.
Increasing the number of aerosols increases the number of water droplets that form whilst reducing their size, both increasing the cloud coverage and forming brighter clouds which reflect more sunlight back to space.
Marine cloud brightening is a form of geoengineering where marine clouds are deliberately seeded with aerosols to achieve this effect.
Tianle Yuan and colleagues calculated the effect of IMO 2020 on the atmospheric levels of sulphate aerosols over the ocean and how this affected cloud composition. They found substantial reductions in both the levels of atmospheric aerosols and the cloud droplet number density.
The greatest modelled aerosol reductions were in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the South China Sea — the regions with the busiest shipping lanes.
The authors then estimated the effect of IMO 2020 on Earth’s energy budget (the difference between the energy received from the Sun and the energy radiated from the Earth) since 2020. They calculated that the estimated effect is equivalent to 80% of the observed increase in the heat energy retained on Earth over that period.
NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
Infographic: NOAA National Hurricane Center
If that forecast comes true it would in fact be a very busy season with the potential for devastating storms along the United States and Caribbean coastlines.
Many reports suggest a busier than normal season because ocean heat content in the main region of the Atlantic is running ahead of schedule for this time of year. Hurricanes thrive on heat from the ocean, so forecasters are expecting quick development.
The current ocean heat content in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes is currently running about 2.5 months ahead of schedule according to this analysis by Brian McNoldy at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School, seen in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. Ocean Heat content in 2024 as of May 24th compared to the 2013-2023 average.
NOAA latches onto this heated development adding in their press release:
As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.
But despite the predictions of a fast and furious potential for more hurricanes this year Mother Nature isn’t cooperating, so far. Philip Klotzbach, Ph.D., a hurricane specialist at the University of Colorado notes that expected development has stalled:
The Northern Hemisphere has yet to have its first named storm (e.g., tropical storm or hurricane) in 2024. This is the first time since 1983 that the Northern Hemisphere has gone this late in the calendar year without a named storm.
The early forecasts and media coverage have a feeling of 2022, “deja vu all over again.” Climate Realism brought attention to the early overhyped claims and the failures of the media in covering the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season here,here, and here. When it was all over, we reported Despite Predictions, 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Fizzles Out Below ‘Normal’. After nearly 4 decades of climate agenda driven claims of worsening global climate impacts from hurricanes, NOAA’s measured worldwide hurricane season data for all year 2022 tropical storms showed that global wide storms were at their lowest strength levels in the last 42 years as seen in Figure 2 below.
Figure 2: The year 2022 global wide ACE data outcome is about 29% lower than the average over the 30 year-long (1991 through 2020) climatology period tracked by Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project database.
To say that the predictions and media coverage of the 2022 hurricane season was an epic failure is an understatement.
Yet, here we are, two years later with the same sort of predictions and media hype unfolding again. In 2022, NOAA said this:
The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.
Sound familiar? Only time will tell, but given the poor track record of the past, there’s a good chance that NOAA and the media will have egg on its collective face again at the end of 2024. One thing we can say for certain when it comes to hurricanes, despite constant assertions that climate change is making them worse, data shows that there is no long-term trend of either increasing hurricane frequency or hurricanes becoming more powerful.
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and currently does daily radio forecasts. He has created weather graphics presentation systems for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He operates the most viewed website in the world on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.
Climate alarmists complain their manufactured hysteria pot is cooling down, as protest focus has switched to other issues and/or boredom set in as the novelty wore off. Instead the victims of dogmatic net zero diktats, such as farmers, drive onto the streets of EU capitals to air their grievances. Is a return to political reality anywhere in sight?
– – –
Ahead of the 2019 European Parliament elections, Europe was rocked by massive climate marches, says Euractiv.
But as the 2024 elections approach, the streets remain silent.
As a series of climate marches swept across Europe in spring 2019, Brussels was no exception. At the movement’s peak, 70,000 people massed in the EU quarter to loudly demand greater climate action.
The mobilisation paid off: The subsequent electoral ‘green wave’ unleashed five years of ambitious climate lawmaking.
Five years later, Europe is again getting ready to vote, but this time, climate marches are small and scattered. Neither record-breaking global temperatures nor threats to the Green Deal have been enough to motivate protestors to return to the streets en masse.
Euractiv spoke to activists and academics to understand why.
. . . The kids are all grown up
Young people were a clear inspiration for the wider climate marches that hit Europe in 2019, particularly the children who skipped school to protest. This youth movement is far less visible today.
“I don’t think the movement exists anymore. Not like it did a few years ago,” said Dr. Kenis.
While many young leaders remain active in climate action – with several chasing European Parliament – wider youth engagement has slumped.
While young people’s interests and priorities invariably change as they grow, Brussels climate activist Moffett also cited COVID restrictions and pressure from parents as reasons why the youth movement has dissipated.
Catching the next wave
Dr Joost de Moor, assistant professor at Science Po in France, argued that “sooner or later, numbers were going down anyhow. This probably has more to do with a loss of momentum and excitement than a drop in climate concerns.”
Iowa Climate Science Education 