By Paul Homewood
AEP’s regular claims that oil and gas assets will soon be stranded are based on the assumption that governments around the world will mandate the end of fossil fuels. But where is the actual evidence for this?
I am not even going to attempt to guess what might happen in thirty years time, because the world by then will be a much different place. In any event, that is of concern to oil companies now either, because they will be looking to bank their profits long before then. Discounting of capital means that any revenues in 2050 will be of little value anyway.
And we surely do have a pretty good idea about might happen in the next decade or so, given how slow economies are to change. So what does that scenario tell us about trends in oil and gas demand?
In the UK, AEP may be surprised to learn, even the official government projections state that oil and gas consumption will only have dropped by 16% and 4% respectively by 2040, compared to now. These projections are based on “existing and planned policies”, including nearly doubling renewable capacity, the ban on new ICE cars and phasing out of gas boilers after 2035.
And if we look globally, we can see that increasing demand for oil and gas in non-OECD countries is likely to dwarf any reductions in OECD ones.
BP Energy Review
Which begs the question, what will the non-OECD countries do?
Does anybody seriously expect them to give up fossil fuels, particularly when AEP’s supposed glut will make them cheaper than ever?
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
July 13, 2024 at 11:00AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 