Month: August 2024

US Tornado Review 2023

By Paul Homewood

 

It’s time to unpack the annual tornado fraud from NOAA:

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https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tornadoes/202313

According to NOAA’s latest annual report,  the frequency of US tornadoes has been steadily rising since the 1950s. To the average reader, this is obviously down to global warming, which we all know makes weather more extreme!

Nowhere does their report mention that we are observing more tornadoes nowadays because of better technology and reporting procedures, not because more are actually occurring. Here is the guidance that NOAA published a few years ago, something that has mysteriously disappeared from their website now. Thanks to Wayback, we can still view it.

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One of the main difficulties with tornado records is that a tornado, or evidence of a tornado must have been observed. Unlike rainfall or temperature, which may be measured by a fixed instrument, tornadoes are short-lived and very unpredictable. If a tornado occurs in a place with few or no people, it is not likely to be documented. Many significant tornadoes may not make it into the historical record since Tornado Alley was very sparsely populated during the 20th century.

Much early work on tornado climatology in the United States was done by John Park Finley in his book Tornadoes, published in 1887. While some of Finley’s safety guidelines have since been refuted as dangerous practices, the book remains a seminal work in tornado research. The University of Oklahoma created a PDF copy of the book and made it accessible at John Finley’s Tornadoes.

Today, nearly all of the United States is reasonably well populated, or at least covered by NOAA’s Doppler weather radars. Even if a tornado is not actually observed, modern damage assessments by National Weather Service personnel can discern if a tornado caused the damage, and if so, how strong the tornado may have been. This disparity between tornado records of the past and current records contributes a great deal of uncertainty regarding questions about the long-term behavior or patterns of tornado occurrence. Improved tornado observation practices have led to an increase in the number of reported weaker tornadoes, and in recent years EF-0 tornadoes have become more prevelant in the total number of reported tornadoes. In addition, even today many smaller tornadoes still may go undocumented in places with low populations or inconsistent communication facilities.

With increased National Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the United States, the total number of EF-1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF-3 to EF-5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These tornadoes would have likely been reported even during the decades before Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports. The bar charts below indicate there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years.

EF1-EF5 Tornado Counts

EF3-EF5 Tornado Counts

http://web.archive.org/web/20200410134618/https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends

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In fact, there was a definite decline in the number of strong tornadoes up to 2014, rather than the “little trend” noted by NOAA.

We now have full data for 2023, so I can extend the above two graphs:

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

The picture has changed little since 2014. There is still little long term trend in EF-1s and over, but the number of EF-3s has remained at a much lower level than pre-2000. The latest data confirms NOAA’s conclusions from 2015.

There was no EF-5 last year, nor any so far this year. The last was the Moore tornado in 2013. On average there are two EF-5s every year three years. The longest previous absence of EF-5s was between 1999 and 2007.

Moreover with only two EF-4s last year. only 2005 and 2018 had fewer.

The evidence clearly shows that tornadoes have become less intense since reliable records began in 1970, but NOAA would like you to believe otherwise.

It is hard to describe NOAA’s reporting of tornadoes as anything other than fraudulent.

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August 5, 2024 at 06:24AM

Climate ‘tipping point’ theories called into question by new study – too many uncertainties 


The study knocks back some vague assertions from previous climate modelling efforts, that attempted to invent so-called tipping points to promote climate alarm and capture headlines in the usual media outlets. Over-reliance on questionable assumptions and use of low quality data are among the issues mentioned. Faulty AMOC predictions are highlighted as an example of the difficulties.
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A new study published in Science Advances reveals that current uncertainties are too large to accurately predict exact tipping times for critical Earth systems components like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), polar ice sheets, or tropical rainforests, says Eurekalert.

These tipping events, which might unfold in response to human-caused global warming, are characterized by rapid, irreversible climate changes with potentially catastrophic consequences.

However, as the new study shows, predicting when these events will occur is more difficult than previously thought.

Climate scientists from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have identified three primary sources of uncertainty.

First, predictions rely on assumptions regarding the underlying physical mechanisms, as well as regarding future human actions to extrapolate past data into the future. These assumptions can be overly simplistic and lead to significant errors.

Second, long-term, direct observations of the climate system are rare and the Earth system components in question may not be suitably represented by the data.

Third, historical climate data is incomplete. Huge data gaps, especially for the longer past, and the methods used to fill these gaps can introduce errors in the statistics used to predict possible tipping times.

To illustrate their findings, the authors examined the AMOC, a crucial ocean current system. Previous predictions from historical data suggested a collapse could occur between 2025 and 2095. However, the new study revealed that the uncertainties are so large that these predictions are not reliable.

Using different fingerprints and data sets, predicted tipping times for the AMOC ranged from 2050 to 8065 even if the underlying mechanistic assumptions were true. Knowing that the AMOC might tip somewhere within a 6000-year window isn’t practically useful, and this large range highlights the complexity and uncertainty involved in such predictions.

The researchers conclude that while the idea of predicting climate tipping points is appealing [Talkshop comment – to media, Hollywood, alarmists etc.], the reality is fraught with uncertainties.

Full article here.
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Image: A portion of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) [credit: R. Curry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution @ Wikipedia]

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August 5, 2024 at 04:48AM

Met Office Admit Storms Were Much Worse in Past

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Back to the Met Office’s State of the UK Climate 2023 report.

This time, a look at wind storms:

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8553

Despite the plethora of silly names the Met Office has given every passing low-pressure system, and despite their persistent advertising of high wind speeds on top of mountains and clifftops as being representative, this new report admits that storms were much worse in the past:

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As well as peak speeds, mean wind speeds seem to have fallen over time as well:

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August 5, 2024 at 04:05AM

Simply Insatiable: Wind & Solar Keep Devouring & Demanding Massive Subsidies

For almost 40 years, wind and solar proponents have been telling us that the subsidies they rely on are only temporary. Which most understood to mean a few years, at most.

Back in 1983 the American Wind Industry Association claimed that wind power would be “competitive and self-supporting on a national level by the end of the decade if assisted by tax credits and augmented by federally sponsored R&D”.

That was nearly 40 years ago. And there was no lack of assistance in the form of tax credits and federally sponsored R&D, along with a whole bunch of other punitive mandates and targets designed to cripple conventional generators and favour chaotically intermittent wind power.

Now, as then, claims from renewable energy rent seekers that wind and solar are truly competitive with nuclear, coal or gas evaporate the instant policymakers start talking about removing the subsidies that they depend upon; without which they would face bankruptcy, in an instant.

As Robert Bradley details below, the subsidies to wind and solar are not only endless they are simply staggering.

‘Renewable Energy Still Dominates Energy Subsidies in FY 2022’
Master Resource
Robert Bradley
27 June 2024

“Federal subsidies to support renewable energy formed nearly half of all federal energy-related support between fiscal years 2016 and 2022. Traditional fuels (coal, natural gas, oil and nuclear) received just 15 percent of all subsidies between FY 2016 and FY 2022, while renewables, conservation and end use received a whopping 85 percent.” (Mary Hutzler, below)

A fallacious argument in the energy/climate debate is that wind and solar are cheaper than fossil fuels in electric generation. It must be wrong because government subsidies are front-and-center for on-grid dilute, intermittent energies. And it is wrong if the federal accounting is examined (below).

Actually, the relatively small subsidies for oil, natural gas, and coal turn negative, dramatically, when the Biden Administration anti-fossil-fuel agenda is added, 225 actions worth.

Mary Hutzler of IER (and former acting head of the DOE’s Energy Information Agency) prepared this analysis less than a year ago for the Institute for Energy Research. “Renewable Energy Still Dominates Energy Subsidies in FY 2022” deserves amplification in the buildup for Fiscal Year 2023’s update. Hutzler’s August 9, 2023 post follows.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), an independent agency of the U.S. Department of Energy, evaluated the amount of subsidies that the federal government provides energy producers for fiscal years 2016 through 2022, in its report Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy, updating its previous subsidy reports.

Federal subsidies to support renewable energy formed nearly half of all federal energy-related support between fiscal years 2016 and 2022. Traditional fuels (coal, natural gas, oil and nuclear) received just 15 percent of all subsidies between FY 2016 and FY 2022, while renewables, conservation, and end use received a whopping 85 percent.

Renewable subsidies more than doubled between FY 2016 and FY 2022, increasing to $15.6 billion in fiscal year 2022 from $7.4 billion in fiscal year 2016 (both in 2022 dollars). Federal subsidies and incentives to support renewable energy in fiscal year 2022 were almost 5 times higher than those for fossil energy, which totaled $3.2 billion in subsidies.

The subsidies in EIA’s report do not include state and local subsidies, mandates or incentives that in many cases are quite substantial, especially for renewable energy sources. EIA also did not include the massive subsidies authorized in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) since it was passed in August 2022. Goldman Sachs has estimated the costs of that bill at $1.2 trillion.

Source: Energy Information Administration

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Fast Facts

  • The Energy Information Administration found that subsidies for renewable energy more than doubled between FY 2016 and FY 2022, occurring before the Inflation Reduction Act (President Biden’s climate bill) became law in 2022 that increased renewable subsidies.
  • Coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear received 15 percent of all subsidies in FY 2022, despite providing vastly larger amounts of energy than renewable energy—the largest subsidy recipient.
  • End use subsidies that provide support for lower income Americans to help pay utility bills were the second largest subsidy category after renewable energy.
  • Wind and solar combined represented 94 percent of the federal renewable electricity-related subsidies in FY 2022, while producing a combined 5.5 percent of primary energy.

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Energy end-use subsidies (Low-Income Heating Assistance and other such programs) were the second highest category after renewable subsidies. Energy end-use subsidies increased from $7.9 billion in FY 2016 to $8.7 billion in FY 2022. The largest program of this category—the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), administered through the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)—slightly decreased its funding from $4.0 billion in FY 2016 to $3.9 billion in FY 2022, with a noteworthy one-year increase to nearly $10.0 billion in FY 2021.

In 2021, funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which assists with energy bills and other energy-related costs, saw a one-time doubling to nearly $10 billion, after Congress approved additional funding for the program under its COVID-19 relief plan that resulted in end use subsidies totaling $14.3 billion in FY 2021. The end use subsidy programs help people at the bottom of the economic ladder pay their rising utility bills, but do nothing to aid most taxpayers.

Most of the renewable subsidies were tax incentives, with solar applications making up the largest share of those subsidies. In FY 2022, solar subsidies totaling $7.5 billion overtook biofuel subsidies–the largest beneficiary of tax incentives in FY 2016, having total subsidies of $3.7 billion, with wind a close third at $3.6 billion in total FY 2022 subsidies.

These sources typically receive additional support at the state and local level, including credits in California for biofuels at $3.70 per gallon for its production rather than petroleum refining. Other benefits in some states include “net metering” for solar energy which requires utilities to purchase solar at a retail price rather than wholesale.

Despite renewable energy receiving over half the federal subsidies in FY 2022, EIA reports that fossil energy in the form of coal, oil, natural gas and natural gas plant liquids made up 79.1 percent of primary energy production in FY 2022. Nuclear power contributed 7.9 percent, followed by biomass at 5.1 percent, wind at 3.7 percent, hydroelectric at 2.3 percent, solar at 1.8 percent, and geothermal at 0.2 percent.

Federal Subsidy and Support for Renewable Energy
Renewable energy (including biofuels) comprised 53 percent of total energy subsidies in FY 2022–up from 41 percent in FY 2016. In FY 2022, tax expenditures accounted for 98 percent of total renewable energy subsidies. Biofuels represented 42 percent of total subsidies for renewable energy in FY 2022 while renewable energy used in electricity production represented the other 58 percent.

The largest electricity-related federal energy subsidies were for renewable energy since subsidies for wind and solar each exceeded subsidies for coal, natural gas and petroleum, and nuclear. Wind and solar combined represented 94 percent of the federal renewable electricity-related subsidies in FY 2022, while producing a combined 5.5 percent of primary energy.

The Institute for Energy Research calculated the federal subsidies and support per unit of electricity production from the information provided in EIA’s report for renewable technologies and nuclear power for FY 2022. Because EIA did not break out the electricity-related subsidies for coal, natural gas and petroleum from their total subsidies, the subsidy per unit of energy produced could not be calculated for these sources of electricity. However, if one assumed that all of coal’s subsidies that EIA calculated were for electricity production in FY 2022, the subsidy cost per unit of production for coal would be $1.06 per megawatt hour.

The figure below provides the subsidy costs per unit of production for those technologies that EIA provided relevant data. On a per-dollar basis, government policies have led to solar generation being subsidized by over 76 times more than nuclear electricity production, and wind being subsidized almost 17 times more than nuclear power on a unit-of-production basis in FY 2022. Nuclear power is the largest source of carbon-free energy in the United States.

Source: Energy Information Administration

Conclusion
From FY 2016 to FY 2022, most federal subsidies were for renewable energy producers (primarily biofuels, wind, and solar), low-income households, and energy-efficiency improvements. From FY 2016 to FY 2022, nearly half (46 percent) of federal energy subsidies were associated with renewable energy, and 35 percent were associated with energy end uses. Federal support for renewable energy of all types more than doubled, from $7.4 billion in FY 2016 to $15.6 billion in FY 2022.

From FY 2016 to FY 2022, provisions in the tax code were the largest source of federal financial support. In FY 2016, the Internal Revenue Code (IRC)—with its 31 energy-specific tax provisions—provided greater financial support to energy than direct expenditures, including R&D expenditures. Total tax expenditures were 70 percent of the total federal financial support. Since FY 2016, tax expenditures have continued to grow, increasing to over 75 percent of total federal support in recent years.

On a total dollar basis and on a unit of production basis, solar energy had the highest federal electricity-related subsidies in FY 2022.
Energy Information Administration

Master Resource

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August 5, 2024 at 02:30AM