From CFACT

Joe Bastardi

This was the Wetherbell.com Summer forecast, and when August is done, its going to be pretty darn close.

Here are the opening bullet points:

• Heat is expected to build over the Rockies.
• A ridge will expand over the West, leaving a weakness in the Southeast and back toward the southern Plains.
• Hurricane season should grow active.
• Analogs are 2008, 2005, 2017, and 2020.

Here is the closing summary:

To the west of 100°W, I am expecting the nation to have a very hot summer evolving, leaving a less warm area where it is raining a lot this spring, from East Texas toward the Tennessee Valley. I am following the pattern of major hurricane-hit seasons and El Niño to La Niña seasons. The West heating up and drying out means the threat of a big wildfire season developing in late summer and fall after all the lush vegetation from the relatively wet winter.

So here comes the wildfires, forecasted as you can see, and with good reason. So, the hysteria from people who do not look at the weather unless they can use it has begun.

But the weather is behaving exactly according to the overall plan.

Now consider this. I am a so-called climate denier. To deny climate, you have to be an imbecile, which is what they are implying, along with slanderous implications about the holocaust.  So why any rational person would pay attention to anyone who lies like that, branding someone something that is in no way true, is beyond me. We simply question the attribution of CO2 to the climate, and the reason they are pushing it has nothing to do with the weather. But that would expose their agenda.  My partner Joe D Aleo and I are the most experienced in looking at this from a point of view of climate and past events, and that allows us to make forecasts with the advantage of experience. And then we get demonized by people who have no idea what has happened (it seems that way by what they say). Notice in the map above that we are making a forecast with an actual metric that can be scored by temperature, not a probability of occurrence as NOAA puts out. One can not measure a probability; it’s either 0 or 100, and if it is against a standard deviation, that is even more complex. NOAA puts out valuable guidance, but it is not an actual forecast.

In any case, our actual forecast is looking darn good.

So it says this would be a very hot summer for the nation overall. I am going to need August to really pull it out, and I think I am going to get it because, as of now, It is not that hot in the center of the nation.

But if you combine this with the coming month,

it should wind up very close.

So, no surprise, right?

Yet there is shock and awe in the media when summer gets hot.

They ignore the fact that in all this heat, the hottest 10-day period of the summer on average was a population-weighted energy consumer’s dream come true.

No reporting on that now, was there?

As far as the wildfires, one thing that can contribute to them is a cold wet spring in the west. It’s always going to heat up and dry out in the summer. Even wet summers are likely to be caused by a few big events rather than how wet summers can occur like last year in the northeast. BUT WE KNEW IT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. So, with extra vegetation drying out and the normal carelessness of man leading to wildfires, we had a big wildfire season forecasted, and here it comes. But let us keep this in perspective. If you want to see what nature was really doing, as opposed to so-called man-made causes, look at the 100-year history of wildfires, not where propagandists conveniently want to start them.

Last year was the 13th lowest on record. No way will this year be the 13th highest. The increases you do see can just as easily be attributed to more people being out in our woods and more opportunities for them to start fires. In addition, since the Drought index takes into account demand, with 4x more people in the west than in the 1930s, the demand does mean what was normal rainfall 50 years ago does not stop things from drying up as much today. Again, the dirty little secret is the demand.

But let us take precip in the in the 20s and 30s.

Can you imagine if that were occurring now? The true DENIERS do not want you to see that.

Now look at the last 20 years.

It is not as dry in the West as it was. So how is climate change, where there is now more precip than there was, leading to more drought in the US? It’s because there is more demand, not because climate change is causing it.

You will find this to be the case in most places where a dry time is highlighted. The John Kerry Rise of Boko Haram drought in Nigeria occurred in a very wet 20-year period, courtesy of the natural reaction to a warm Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation, which was seen 50 years ago by the late Dr. William Gray when he forecasted the current uptick in hurricanes.

While I have you here, look at  the band of cool and wet coming for Africa in August.

It means the African wave train is going to be quite strong and jives perfectly with our hurricane ideas, issued way back in December.

Looks like another year of no drought for Boko Haram, eh?

Point is, in a big country, we can run anywhere and find something happening that is not exactly average. In the sunshine and lollipops, let us control your world agenda of these people. They try to create Climate Anxiety. There is no such thing. There should be Kamala’s anxiety, that will be a real thing given her ideas on climate.

So we have a big hurricane season forecasted and it is off to a rip-roaring start as we are 4 times the normal amount of Accumulated Cyclonic Energy. We will get a new storm developing this week that could impact the east coast Aug 3-8. But 75% of the ACE occurs after August 15th and the pattern is lining up like we had it. In fact, the overall pattern is looking very much like the top 10 impact seasons on the US coast, most recently in 2020. So that FORECAST WAS MADE IN DECEMBER. Also forecasted was a very quiet year for the world’s normally most active basin, the entire Pacific, and globally a below-normal year. So the Atlantic takes up the slack. Beryl put people around Houston through hell for 7-10 with the power outages. No surprise to us. Nine days before, we said Texas would be the endgame, and on our scale, it was a 2. My clients love that scale because it more accurately describes the total power of the storm so they can estimate better the effect. In any case, if (when?) this all shows itself, the hysteria pointed at climate change will make sure you do not know about the counter on the global scale, the weaker than normal season in the bigger bang for the buck basin.

That is how they do it in everything. CFACT wants me to stick to just weather and climate, and I respect that. But the agenda of lying, hiding, deception, distortion, and delusion is present in every single leftist idea you see today.

I love the weather and climate. Always have and always will. I was telling some of my classmates from HS that when I could never get a date, I did not mind in the least because I had the weather. I am blessed for I am married with 2 great kids, but if I had never married, I’d still have the weather. For me, the weather and climate are very different than people who have, in reality, turned into climate exploiters who distort the weather for their own purposes. They came into my house and are trashing it. And so, like anyone, you have to try to stand up to it and throw them out.

No room for climate exaggerators squatting in the house of weather.