Month: August 2024

Study: Sea Levels Rose 4.7 Centimeters Per Year 8200 Years Ago – 30 Times Faster Than Modern Rates

The modern rate of sea level rise is not even close veering outside the range of natural variability.

A new study reminds us that, 8200 years ago, near-global sea levels rose 6.5 meters in a span of just 140 years. This is 470 centimeters per century, 4.7 centimeters per year, during a period when CO2 levels were alleged to be a “safe” and stagnant 260 ppm.

Image Source: Nunn et al., 2024

To put this change rate in perspective, global sea levels rose at a rate of 1.56 millimeters per year from 1900 to 2018, including 1.5 mm per year rate during the more recent period from 1958-2014 (Frederikse et al., 2020, Frederikse et al., 2018). This is just under 16 centimeters per century or sixteen tenths of a centimeter (0.16 cm) per year.

Image Source: Frederikse et al., 2020 and Frederikse et al., 2018

The net melt of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) is thought to have been the largest contributor to sea level rise in recent decades. But, to put the GIS change in context, the entire ice sheet melt contribution to sea level rise was just 1.2 total centimeters from 1992-2020 (Simonsen et al., 2021).

Image Source: Simonsen et al., 2021

The Earth’s natural range of sea level rise rates, periodically reaching 4.7 cm per year, is thus 30 times greater in magnitude than the modern period’s (1900-2018) “anthropogenic” rate, which is 0.156 cm per year.

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August 26, 2024 at 12:34PM

China Poised To Cut Off US Military From Key Mineral As America’s Own Reserves Lay Buried Under Red Tape

From THE DAILY CALLER

Nick Pope
Contributor

China is planning to restrict exports of a key mineral needed to make weapons while a U.S. company that could be reducing America’s reliance on foreign suppliers is languishing in red tape, energy experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

The Chinese government announced on August 15 that it will restrict exports of antimony, a critical mineral that dominates the production of weapons globally and is essential for producing equipment like munitions, night vision goggles and bullets that are essential to national security, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Perpetua Resources, an American mining company, has been navigating red tape for years to develop a mine in Valley County, Idaho,  that could decrease reliance on the Chinese supply of antimony, but the slow permitting process is getting in the way, energy experts told the DCNF.

It can take years to secure all the necessary approvals and permits to develop a mine like the one Perpetua Resources is trying to operate. One of the key permitting laws in place is the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which also applies to federal land management actions and the construction of certain public infrastructure projects like highways.

“After six years of planning and early engagement, we began the [NEPA] permitting process in 2016. We are now eight years into NEPA,” a Perpetua Resources spokesperson told the DCNF. The company is hoping to extract antimony from the largest known deposit in the U.S., and Perpetua Resources’ development could also produce millions of ounces of gold as well.

Diana Furchtgott-Roth, director of the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Energy, Climate and Environment, argues that the Perpetua Resources mine poses real environmental considerations that should be addressed, but production in the U.S. is almost certainly cleaner than production that takes place in China. Moreover, depending on China for raw materials needed to produce key defense equipment poses a clear national security risk, Furchtgott-Roth said.

“The United States has the highest environmental standards in the world for its mines, as well as for some other things, too,” Furchtgott-Roth told the DCNF. “It’s a huge national security risk. Given what we’ve seen with Russia cutting off supplies of natural gas to Europe, we know that countries can cut off important supplies to other countries.”

“If the administration wants to pursue policies that push electric vehicles, green energy and other mineral-intensive technologies, it should look to streamline the permitting process across the board rather than selectively pursuing reform for some favored types of development and not for others,” Furchtgott-Roth added. (RELATED: ‘Make Their Lives Utterly Miserable’: Top US Commander Outlines ‘Hellscape’ Response If China Invades Taiwan)

Steve Coonen, a former Department of Defense (DOD) official who focused on technology exports to China, agreed that relying on China for raw materials needed to produce crucial technologies presents a clear national security risk.

“The United States has all the rare earth elements it needs, not too dissimilar from its energy requirements,” Coonen told the DCNF. “However, Democrats have enchained U.S. industry by prohibiting the extraction of these materials for misplaced and ill-informed ecological reasons at a significant risk to national security and the United States’ long-term economic health.”

China is responsible for just under 50% of the world’s antimony production, and it is also the source of 63% of the U.S.’ current antimony imports, according to CSIS. The U.S., meanwhile, did not mine any “marketable” antimony in 2023, according to CNBC.

China’s recently announced export restrictions for antimony will take effect on Sept. 15, according to CNBC. To many in the industry, China moving to curb antimony exports would have come as a surprise just a few months ago, so the country’s decision to take action comes across as “quite confrontational in that regard,” Lewis Black, CEO of Canadian mining company Almonty Industries, told the outlet.

In addition to antimony, China has also flexed its muscles by restricting exports of other critical minerals that it dominates globally, like germanium and gallium, since 2023.

“The United States has some of the highest permitting standards in the world, and that’s something to be proud of. But NEPA gets criticism for being inefficient, and much of that criticism is justified,” the Perpetua Resources spokesperson told the DCNF. “When we are talking about minerals we need for America’s national and economic security — not to mention our clean energy future — we need an efficient regulatory process that still maintains robust protections for communities and the environment.”

The company is anticipating that the process — from initial deposit identification to the beginning of mineral extraction from the mine site — will take 18 years, the Perpetua Resources spokesperson told the DCNF. However, the spokesperson added that NEPA has been beneficial for transparency with the public and allowing stakeholder communities to weigh in about the project.

Nevertheless, Perpetua Resources “absolutely supports a commonsense, bipartisan approach to permitting reform” because “good projects should not wither in red tape.”

The antimony curbs may be even more pressing given existing concerns about the strength of America’s defense-industrial base amid wars in the Middle East and Europe, as well as rising tensions with China over Taiwan. Many experts have cautioned that the U.S. is allowing itself to become too dependent on an adversarial China’s mineral supplies at a time when those minerals are playing a much larger role in the American economy, thanks in part to the Biden administration’s massive green energy agenda.

“In the mid-twentieth century, domestic mining accounted for 90% of the U.S.’s antimony consumption. Today, the U.S. no longer mines antimony; instead, it relies on China, its chief geopolitical rival, for over 60% of its antimony imports,” Quill Robinson, an associate fellow in CSIS’ Energy Security and Climate Change Program, told the DCNF. “Effective China de-risking requires reducing reliance up and down the value chain.” (RELATED: ‘Blinking Red’: US Is Scrambling To Prep For A China Invasion Of Taiwan, Defense Officials Say)

“Yet, increasing domestic resource extraction, such as critical mineral mining, has proven far more politically challenging than building new solar module factories,” Robinson added. “Addressing this issue will require specific policies, like permitting reform, but also a broader commitment from lawmakers to support the safe, environmentally responsible extraction of the U.S.’ natural resources.”

Independent West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Republican Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso teamed up to introduce a major permitting reform bill in July, designing the package to simplify the regulatory hurdles that major infrastructure and development projects must clear and expedite timelines without totally defanging regulators’ ability to ensure that environmental concerns and considerations are addressed. That bill has not yet come up for a vote in the Senate.

“There are legitimate environmental challenges that need to be mitigated for projects like this,” Arnab Datta, the Institute for Progress’ director of infrastructure policy, told the DCNF. However, government agencies are more strongly incentivized to avoid legal challenges of their reviews from third parties than they are to thoroughly review the more significant environmental concerns, meaning that regulators tend to chew up lots of time on those minor points and ultimately extend the timelines for permitting, Datta explained.

“The uncertainty from permitting and litigation compounds the challenge of reaching production in what’s often a volatile and uncertain market environment for these commodities,” Datta, who also works for Employ America as a managing director of policy implementation, continued. “These companies need a process with certainty and reasonable timelines and also support that helps mitigate the volatility that arises from China’s actions in the market.”

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August 26, 2024 at 12:03PM

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August 26, 2024 at 09:06AM

Saving Lives from Extreme Heat Requires Reducing Urban Heat Island Effects Not CO2!

Jim Steele

From peer-reviewed The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data

Soon et al (2023): The majority of the stations used for comparing the mid-19th century to the present are now urbanized… The rural and urban trend is 60% higher than that for the rural-only record. It seems plausible that at least some of this extra warming is a result of urbanization bias.”

Graphic A shows US weather stations with at least 70 years of data. Blue dots show cooling trends (34%) and red crosses warming trends (66%). Stations with warming trends are clustered in areas with the most Urban Heat Islands (graphic B), like the northeast, Lake Michigan area and west coast.  Contradicting a homogeneous CO2 global warming effect, cooling weather stations are incongruously observed adjacent to warming stations. However, such contrasting pairs are easily explained by natural vegetation vs urban heat islands.

For Indianapolis, IN surface temperatures during July 2019 based on infrared satellite data reached 118F in urban centers (red in graphic D, and the gray areas using natural color in graphic C). Natural temperatures only reached 68F (blue in graphic D, and dark green areas of graphic C) for example the large blue area in the northwest of Graphic D is Eagle Creek Park.

Urban Heat Islands are centers for the most heat related deaths. The battle to save lives from unnatural extreme heat requires reducing urban heat island effects. Reducing CO2 is irrelevant!

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August 26, 2024 at 08:01AM