Month: August 2024

Early Holocene Reef Growth ‘Substantial And Active’ With 4°C Warmer Water And Faster-Than-Today Changes

A new study dispels the claim that coral reefs are at risk from modern environmental changes or rates.

From about 8000 to 6000 years ago the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) mean annual water temperatures were 4°C warmer than today.

Relative sea levels were ~2 meters higher and seas were rising at rates of ~6 to 7 meters per millennium (6-7 mm/yr).

The Early Holocene climate was also wetter than today, resulting in higher rates of terrestrial runoff (more turbidity and nutrient-rich waters) as GBR coastal land areas were increasingly inundated.

It has been assumed by modern scientists (and popularized by the recent preference for alarmist narratives) that reefs could not favorably withstand these environmental conditions – nor such rapid change.

However, new data suggest coral reef growth was “substantial and active” during this interval, which also characterizes the modern reef growth in this region.

“[W]ater quality during the Holocene between 8 and 7 ka was turbid and with high concentrations of nutrients, yet coral reef growth was substantial and active. The same holds true for modern corals in inshore environments, which can display very high percentage coverage.”

Image Source: Sanborn et al., 2024

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August 19, 2024 at 04:14PM

From Dust to Green: The Ever-Shifting Sands of Climate Alarmism

The irony of the climate alarmists’ narrative is as rich as the verdant deserts they never saw coming. Once upon a time, the world was supposed to be swallowed by an ever-expanding Sahara, with desertification hailed as the “greatest environmental challenge of our time.” Fast forward to today, and the alarmists have pivoted yet again, now fretting over the unexpected greening of these very same arid lands. It’s a classic case of moving the goalposts, and one can’t help but chuckle at the sheer absurdity of it all.

The Great Desertification Panic

Remember when desertification was the bogeyman lurking in the shadows of climate change? The narrative was simple: human activity, coupled with rising temperatures, would lead to the relentless march of deserts across the globe. Poor farming practices and overgrazing were supposedly turning fertile lands into barren wastelands. The alarmists painted a picture of a world where sand dunes would swallow cities whole, and humanity would be left to wander the earth like nomads in search of water. But then, a funny thing happened on the way to the apocalypse. The deserts didn’t expand as predicted. In fact, many of them started to green. Yes, you read that right. The very regions that were supposed to dry up and blow away are now experiencing a surge in vegetation growth. It’s almost as if Mother Nature decided to play a little prank on those who thought they had her all figured out.

CO2: The Unlikely Hero

Enter carbon dioxide, the villain of the climate change saga. For years, CO2 has been demonized as the primary driver of global warming. But in a twist worthy of a Hollywood blockbuster, it turns out that this much-maligned gas is also a key player in the greening of the world’s drylands. As CO2 levels have risen, so too has the rate of photosynthesis, allowing plants to thrive even in some of the harshest environments. This phenomenon, known as CO2 fertilization, has led to increased vegetation productivity across vast swathes of arid land.Of course, the alarmists can’t let this unexpected boon go unchallenged. Instead of celebrating the positive impact of CO2 on plant growth, they’ve shifted their focus to the potential downsides. They warn that the extra vegetation could soak up scarce water supplies, disrupt local ecosystems, and even increase the risk of wildfires. It’s as if they’re determined to find a cloud in every silver lining.

Pivoting to Greening Concerns

With desertification no longer the existential threat it once was, the climate alarmists have had to pivot yet again. Now, the narrative is all about the potential dangers of greening. The fear is that as drylands become more vegetated, they could lose their unique biodiversity. Specialist species that have adapted to arid conditions might be displaced by fast-growing plants better suited to the new, CO2-rich environment.

As we pump yet more CO2 into the air, arid-land greening seems set to continue, according to two recent modeling studies. But ecologists warn that, despite appearances, going green may have downsides for arid ecosystems and for the people who depend on them. Desert plants and animals will often lose out, and the extra vegetation may soak up scarce water supplies.

Drylands cover roughly 40 percent of the planet’s land surface. The deserts at their core are surrounded by wide expanses of savanna grass, dry woodlands, and sometimes irrigated fields. They are home to more than a third of the world’s population and are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the international organization for conservation scientists.

https://thebulletin.org/2024/08/desertification-was-supposed-to-be-the-greatest-environmental-challenge-of-our-time-why-are-experts-now-worried-about-greening/

But let’s be honest: the greening of deserts is hardly the catastrophe it’s made out to be. In fact, it’s a testament to the resilience of nature and the adaptability of ecosystems. Yet, the alarmists seem intent on framing it as yet another crisis that requires urgent intervention. It’s almost as if they can’t bear the thought of a world where CO2 might actually have some benefits.

The Never-Ending Cycle of Alarmism

The irony of the situation is that the climate alarmists’ narrative is as adaptable as the ecosystems they claim to defend. When one crisis fails to materialize, they simply pivot to another.

The world was wrong to expect that climate change would trigger rapid and widespread desertification in the world’s arid lands. In fact, the reverse is happening. But it could be a similar folly to imagine that the dramatic greening now visible in satellite images across many of those same regions is a reason to declare their troubles over.

https://thebulletin.org/2024/08/desertification-was-supposed-to-be-the-greatest-environmental-challenge-of-our-time-why-are-experts-now-worried-about-greening/

It’s a never-ending cycle of doom and gloom, with each new threat conveniently fitting into their overarching narrative of impending catastrophe. But here’s the thing: the world is a complex place, and nature doesn’t always follow the script. The greening of deserts is a reminder that the earth is capable of surprising us in ways we never imagined. It’s a lesson in humility for those who think they have all the answers, and a call to approach environmental challenges with a little more nuance and a lot less hysteria. In the end, the irony of the climate alarmists’ narrative is that it often overlooks the very resilience and adaptability that make our planet so remarkable. Instead of constantly shifting the goalposts to fit a predetermined agenda, perhaps it’s time to acknowledge the unexpected ways in which nature can heal and thrive, even in the face of adversity. After all, the world is a greener place than we once thought, and that’s something worth celebrating.

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August 19, 2024 at 04:04PM

The Solar Panel cyber threat: Dutch hacker gets into 4 million panels in 150 countries

Black Start, dystopian, blackout, future city.

By Jo Nova

What if a few gigawatts of solar power disappeared without a warning or a cloud in the sky?

Imagine a hostile force had control of half your national power generation at lunchtime and could just flip a switch to bring you to your knees? Or how about a crime syndicate wanting a ransom paid by 5pm?

Steve Milloy:   Communist China is setting us up for solar panel-based disaster:

“Solar panels that make the electricity suitable for the power grid and which are usually connected to the web, can be “easily hacked, remotely disabled or used for DDoS [Distributed Denial of Service] attacks.” DDoS is one of the most common types of attacks, which basically try to overwhelm a system… Solar panels were outlined as a vulnerability in several scenarios, also due to the dominance of a single country, China, in the supply chain.”

Would you like a Black Start?

Daniel Croft, CyberDaily

Cyber Security CRC chief executive Rachael Falk said… that an attack on the solar grid could spark a “black start” event, which could result in the entire power grid going down. … “This could bring down an entire power grid, and it could take a week to recover,” she said.

 [Falk said] the threat presented by foreign-manufactured solar inverters is a recent one, as only recent models are internet-connected due to increased interest in smart home technology.

“Traditionally, cyber risk with solar inverters was low because they were not connected to the internet,” said Falk. “However, as the popularity of smart home energy systems has boomed, this has changed, with most solar inverters now web connected.”

The EU and the US have both had a wake up call in the last few weeks

A Dutch white hat hacker got into one system a couple of weeks ago with 4 million panels in 150 countries, exposing a major flaw. That software glitch in American Enphase inverters was fixed quickly once they were aware of it, but how many other doors remain open?

Only two weeks ago another group called Bitdefender claimed that 20% of the worlds solar panels and 195 gigawatts of capacity, had been at risk of cybercrime for months. Rooftop solar management software by Solarman and Deye (both Chinese solar manufacturers) is used by 2 million “solar plants” and 10 million devices. Hackers could have been able to take control of the inverters (which could “change the way the inverters interact with the grid”. They could also steal quite a lot of data, including real time GPS locations and production. Apparently those issues were reported in May but are now patched too. (I guess no one would be mentioning any issues which are not patched, would they?) SecurityBrief has those details.

Whatever threats exist in the Netherlands, Australia is a sitting duck

Even at lunchtime in winter, sometimes half of the Australian national grid power comes from solar panels. That’s 12 gigawatts of solar power out of 25 gigawatts in toto. (And it’s similar in WA). Here in the renewable crash test dummy, fully 58% of the solar inverters that are connected in to the internet come from companies headquartered in China.  (And the rest are headquartered elsewhere, but who knows, maybe they’re made in China too?)

So Cyber-expert Falk gave us that warning of a black start disaster in October last year, and how far have we got? By January we were redoing our cybersecurity plans, but somehow still forgetting about smart home devices like solar inverters.  But, not to worry, by February we had the news that we were hiring someone to develop “a roadmap”.

We can always rely on the government to get nothing done.

By Nikolaus J. Kurmayer | Euractiv

An ethical hack of solar panels in the Netherlands has revealed their vulnerability to cyber attacks, prompting industry calls for more rigorous safety assessments.

A Dutch white hat hacker could have gained control of millions of smart solar panel systems, reports investigative outlet FollowTheMoney, using a backdoor.

The findings confirm a 2023 report by a Dutch agency which found that converters, essential parts of solar panels that make the electricity suitable for the power grid and which are usually connected to the web, can be “easily hacked, remotely disabled or used for DDoS [Distributed Denial of Service] attacks.” DDoS is one of the most common types of attacks, which basically try to overwhelm a system.

report by the EU’s own cybersecurity agency from 24 July found that the union is ill-prepared for a concerted attack on its energy infrastructure, whether by a foreign state or by malicious insiders.

Thanks to Marc Morano of Climate Depot.

 

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August 19, 2024 at 02:43PM

The Original Sin of GHG Theory

In reality, Water only spontaneously flows down a
pressure gradient (downhill).
Energy only spontaneously flows
down an energy density gradient (from high to low).

In the domain of theology, original sin refers to Adam and Eve choosing to trust the serpent’s lies rather than natural truth placed by God in the Garden of Eden.  In legal proceedings, a similar concept concerns evidence obtained under false pretences.  “The fruit of a poisonous tree” refers to analyses, interpretations or conclusions that must be excluded because they started with a falsehood.

This post delves into a fraud at the root of consensus Climate Science™, illustrated by the image above showing how both water and energy flow down their respective gradients.  William Happer alluded to the problem in a recent presentation: (See Happer: Cloud Radiation Matters, CO2 Not So Much)

As we shall see below, mischief is a very polite term for a math and science error that has poisoned most all thinking and discussion about changes in climate and weather.  In a previous post, I summarized an important empirical experiment by Thomas Allmendinger proving that a parcel of pure CO2 and a parcel of ordinary air warm exactly the same when exposed to both SW and LW radiation.  (See Experimental Proof Nil Warming from GHGs).

So we know the notion is empirically wrong, now let’s discuss how GHG theory went off the rails from the beginning.  For that I provide below a synopsis of commentary by blogger Morpheus which he posted at Tallbloke’s Talkshop.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images. (Title in red is link to blog)

CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming, due to CO2)
is nothing more than a complex mathematical scam.

The takeaways:

1) The climatologists have conflated their purported “greenhouse effect” with the Kelvin-Helmholtz Gravitational Auto-Compression Effect (aka the lapse rate).

2) The climatologists purport the causative agent for their purported “greenhouse effect” to be “backradiation”.

3) The Kelvin-Helmholtz Gravitational Auto-Compression Effect’s causative agent is, of course, gravity.

4) “Backradiation” is physically impossible because energy cannot spontaneously flow up an energy density gradient.

5) The climatologists misuse the Stefan-Boltzmann (S-B) equation, using the idealized blackbody form of the equation upon graybody objects, which manufactures out of thin air their purported “backradiation”. It is only a mathematical artifact due to that aforementioned misuse of the S-B equation. It does not and cannot actually exist. Its existence would imply rampant violations of the fundamental physical laws.

6) Polyatomic molecules are net atmospheric radiative coolants, not “global warming” gases. Far from the ‘global warming gas’ claimed by the climatologists, water acts as a literal refrigerant (in the strict ‘refrigeration cycle’ sense) below the tropopause. CO2 is the most prevalent atmospheric radiative coolant above the tropopause and the second-most prevalent (behind water vapor) below the tropopause. Peer reviewed studies corroborating this are referenced in the paper at the end of this post.

As you can see, there are two forms of the Stefan-Boltzmann (S-B) equation… one for idealized blackbody objects, one for graybody objects.

The idealized blackbody form of the S-B equation assumes emission to 0 K and ε = 1 by the very definition of idealized blackbody objects. ( ε is the term for emissivity from 0 to 1).

Idealized Blackbody Object (assumes emission to 0 K and ε = 1 by definition):
q_bb = ε σ (T_h^4 – T_c^4) A_h
1 σ (T_h^4 – 0 K) 1 m^2
=    σ  T^4

The graybody form of the S-B equation assumes emission to > 0 K and ε < 1.

Graybody Object (assumes emission to > 0 K and ε < 1):
q_gb = ε σ (T_h^4 – T_c^4) A_h

The ‘A_h’ term is merely a multiplier, used if one is calculating for an area larger than unity [for instance: >1 m^2], which converts the result from radiant exitance (W m-2, radiant flux per unit area) to radiant flux (W).

One can see from the immediately-above equation that the Stefan-Boltzmann (S-B) equation is all about subtracting the radiation energy density of the cooler object from the radiation energy density of the warmer object.

So radiant exitance at its most simplified (and thus the S-B equation at its most simplified) is just the emissivity of the warmer object (because emissivity only applies to objects which are emitting, and only the warmer object will be emitting… the colder object will be unable to emit in the direction of the warmer object because energy cannot spontaneously flow up an energy density gradient) multiplied by the speed of light in vacua, multiplied by the energy density differential, all divided by 4.

For graybody objects, it is the radiation energy density differential between warmer object and cooler object which determines warmer object radiant exitance. Warmer objects don’t absorb radiation from cooler objects (a violation of 2LoT in the Clausius Statement sense and Stefan’s Law); the lower radiation energy density gradient between warmer and cooler objects (as compared to between warmer object and 0 K) lowers radiant exitance of the warmer object (as compared to its radiant exitance if it were emitting to 0 K). The radiation energy density differential between objects manifests a radiation energy density gradient, each surface’s radiation energy density manifesting a proportional radiation pressure.

The climatologists use:   q = σ T^4on graybody objects, and sometimes slap ε<1 onto that,
when they should be using:  q = ε σ (T_h^4 – T_c^4)

This has the effect of artificially inflating radiant exitance of all calculated-upon objects.

Essentially, the climatologists are treating real-world graybody objects as though they are idealized blackbody objects… with emission to 0 K and emissivity of 1 (sometimes… other times they slap emissivity onto the idealized blackbody form of the S-B equation while still assuming emission to 0 K… which is still a misuse of the S-B equation, for graybody objects).

This essentially isolates each object into its own system so it cannot interact with other objects via the ambient EM field, which grossly inflates radiant exitance of all objects, necessitating that the climatologists carry these incorrect values through their calculation and cancel them on the back end (to get their equation to balance) by subtracting a wholly-fictive ‘cooler to warmer’ energy flow from the real (but far too high because it was calculated for emission to 0 K) ‘warmer to cooler’ energy flow.

That wholly-fictive ‘cooler to warmer’ energy flow is otherwise known as ‘backradiation’... it is nothing more than a mathematical artifact due to that aforementioned misuse of the S-B equation.

As I show here and in the below-linked paper, the correct usage of the S-B equation for graybody objects is via subtracting cooler object energy density from warmer object energy density to arrive at the energy density gradient, which determines radiant exitance of the warmer object.

So we’re talking about the same concept as water only spontaneously flowing down a pressure gradient (ie: downhill) when we talk of energy (of any form) only spontaneously flowing down an energy density gradient. Energy density is pressure, an energy density gradient is a pressure gradient… for energy.

It’s a bit more complicated for gases because they can convert that energy density to a change in volume (1 J m-3 = 1 Pa), for constant-pressure processes, which means the unconstrained volume of a gas will change such that its energy density (in J m-3) will tend toward being equal to pressure (in Pa). This is the underlying mechanism for convection. It should also have clued the climatologists in to the fact that it is solar insolation and atmospheric pressure which ‘sets’ temperature, not any ‘global warming’ gases.

Since a warmer object will have higher radiation energy density at all wavelengths than a cooler object (because remember, temperature is a measure of radiation energy density, equal to the fourth root of radiation energy density divided by Stefan’s Constant):

… ‘backradiation’ can do nothing to warm the surface because energy cannot spontaneously radiatively flow from lower to higher radiation energy density, and thus CAGW is nothing more than a complex mathematical scam perpetrated to obtain multiple billions of dollars in funding for trough-grubbing line-toeing ‘scientists’ and by perfidious politicians.

“But how does that make CAGW a scam?”, some may ask… well, because we’re being lied to, based upon an unscientific premise.

The climatologists have misused the Stefan-Boltzmann (S-B) equation (and the fundamental physical laws), and in the process, have practically flipped reality on its headpolyatomics (CO2, H2O, etc.) are not “global warming gases”, they are net atmospheric radiative coolants (radiative emission to space being the only way that Earth can shed energy); monoatomics (Ar) are not inert gases that have no effect upon climate, they are the actual “greenhouse gases” (because they cannot emit IR, and thus cannot shed energy to space… they dilute the radiative coolant gases); homonuclear diatomics (N2, O2) are somewhere in between… they can radiatively emit IR (and thus shed energy from the system known as ‘Earth’), but only under certain conditions (collisional perturbation of their net-zero electric dipole, which is why homonuclear diatomic vibrational mode quantum states are meta-stable and relatively long-lived. Collisions happen exponentially less frequently as altitude increases), and thus are “greenhouse gases” like the monoatomics, just not to the same extent.

We live, at the planet’s surface, in what can be analogized to the evaporator section of a world-sized AC unit, with polyatomics being net atmospheric radiative coolants (a higher concentration of them increases thermodynamic coupling between heat source (surface) and sink (space)), and with monoatomics and homonuclear diatomics playing the same role as non-condensable gases would play in an AC unit… diluting the polyatomic radiative gases which transit the majority of the energy, thus reducing the efficiency at which energy is transited from surface to upper atmosphere, then radiatively emitted to space.

Think about it this way… we all know the air warms up during the daytime as the planet’s surface absorbs energy from the sun. Conduction of that energy when air contacts the planet’s surface is the major reason air warms up.

How does that ~99% of the atmosphere (N2, O2, Ar) cool down? It cannot effectively radiatively emit.

Convection moves energy around in the atmosphere, but it cannot shed energy to space. Conduction depends upon thermal contact with other matter and since space is essentially a vacuum, conduction cannot shed energy to space… this leaves only radiative emission. The only way our planet can shed energy is via radiative emission to space. Fully ~76.2% of all surface energy is removed via convection, advection and evaporation. The surface only radiatively emits ~23.8% of all surface energy to space. That ~76.2% must be emitted to space by the atmosphere.

Thus, common sense dictates that the thermal energy of the constituents of the atmosphere which cannot effectively radiatively emit (N2, O2, Ar) must be transferred to the so-called ‘greenhouse gases’ (CO2 being a lesser contributor below the tropopause and the largest contributor above the tropopause, water vapor being the main contributor below the tropopause) which can radiatively emit and thus shed that energy to space. Peer-reviewed studies corroborating this are referenced in the linked file below.

So, far from being ‘greenhouse gases’ which ‘trap heat’ in the atmosphere, those polyatomic radiative gases actually shed energy from the atmosphere to space. They are net atmospheric radiative coolants.

In short, in an atmosphere sufficiently dense such that collisional energy transfer can significantly occur, all polyatomic radiative molecules play the part of atmospheric radiative coolants at and above the temperature at which the combined translational mode energy of two colliding particles (atoms or molecules) exceeds the lowest excited vibrational mode quantum state energy of the radiative molecule. Below this temperature, they act to warm the atmosphere via thermalization (the mechanism the climate alarmists claim happens all the time), but if that occurs below the tropopause, the net result is an increase of Convective Available Potential Energy, which increases convection, which is a net cooling process. It is a gradation… as temperature increases, so too does the population of vibrationally excited polyatomics, and thus increases radiative emission. For CO2, that ‘transition temperature’ (the temperature at which the molecule transitions from being ‘net warmant’ to ‘net coolant’ and vice versa) is ~288 K.

The climatologists only told people half the story (thermalization by CO2 via vibrational mode to translation mode (v-t) collisional energy transfer processes). They didn’t tell anyone about the inverse (translational mode to vibrational mode (t-v) collisional energy transfer processes, (then that energy being radiatively emitted to space)), which is a cooling process. That didn’t fit their doomsaying narrative, so they left it out.

In other words, the climatologists only told people about the warming part (thermalization), not the cooling part. In order to hew to the fundamental physical laws, one must consider energy flow both to and from the CO2 molecule.

This doesn’t just apply to CO2, however. It applies to all atmospheric polyatomic molecules. In fact, far from the ‘global warming gas’ claimed by the climatologists, water acts as a literal refrigerant (in the strict ‘refrigeration cycle’ sense) below the tropopause:

That’s why, after all, the humid adiabatic lapse rate (~3.5 to ~6.5 K km-1) is lower than the dry adiabatic lapse rate (~9.81 K km-1).

You will note that the dry adiabatic lapse rate is due to the monoatomics and homonuclear diatomics... we’ve removed in this case the predominant polyatomic which reduces lapse rate.

Remember that an actual greenhouse works by hindering convection of energy out of the greenhouse.

In an atmosphere consisting of solely monoatomics and homonuclear diatomics (ie: no polyatomic radiative molecules), the atoms / molecules could pick up energy via conduction by contacting the surface, just as the polyatomics do; they could convect just as the polyatomics do… but once in the upper atmosphere, they could not as effectively radiatively emit that energy, the upper atmosphere would warm, lending less buoyancy to convecting air, thus hindering convection… and that’s how an actual greenhouse works, by hindering convection.

For homonuclear diatomics, there would be some collisional perturbation of their net-zero electric dipole and thus some emission in the atmosphere, but by and large the atmosphere could not effectively emit (especially at higher altitudes, because the probability of collision decreases exponentially with altitude).

Thus the surface would have to radiatively emit that energy (which is currently ~76.2% of all energy removed from the surface via radiation, convection and evaporation) instead… and a higher surface radiant exitance implies a higher surface temperature.

On the contrary, in our actual atmosphere, as temperature increases, (t-v) (translational mode -to- vibrational mode) collisional energy transfer processes increase and thus spectral emission increases only because CO2 is a net atmospheric radiative coolant (transferring translational mode energy to vibrational mode energy, then radiatively emitting it). So they are attempting to claim that CO2 is a “global warming gas” and simultaneously a net atmospheric radiative coolant, a contradiction… which is why their claims make no sense upon close examination.

In fact, removing CO2 would increase upper atmosphere temperature (due to fewer emitters in the upper atmosphere), which would set the starting point of the lapse rate higher, which translates down through the lapse rate to a warmer surface. That doesn’t occur with Ar, because it is a monoatomic, has no vibrational mode quantum states and thus cannot emit (nor absorb) IR in any case, and thus it only dilutes the radiative polyatomics, reducing the efficiency by which energy is transited from surface to space.

Because we don’t live in a ‘greenhouse’ as the climatologists claim… we live in what can be analogized to a world-sized AC unit… the surface is akin to the AC unit’s evaporator section (ie: the heat source); the atmosphere is akin to the AC unit’s working fluid; space is akin to the AC unit’s condenser section (ie: the heat sink); convection is akin to the AC unit’s compressor (ie: the motive force to move the working fluid).

These concepts used to be common knowledge. Somewhere along the way, the concepts got skewed to fit a particular narrative. Eventually, the concepts described herein will be common knowledge again, whereupon CAGW and its offshoots will be dumped on the midden heap of bad scientific ideas.

 

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August 19, 2024 at 02:38PM