Essay by Eric Worrall

Germany has been accused of importing Russian Gas via third parties. Did Moscow just lay down some ground rules?

This article is speculative, but hear me out.

Germany relies on a new source of money for Kiev

Status: 08/17/2024 8:11 pm

In view of tight funds, the Federal Government no longer wants to provide Ukraine with new aid for the time being. However, according to the Ministry of Finance, exceptions are possible. Support for Kiev is to come from another source in the future.

By Christina Nagel, ARD capital studio

The Federal Government had planned around eight billion euros this year to support Ukraine. Already at the beginning of July, however, it became clear that the funds for military aid were running out. They were “largely spent and bound,” said Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in the run-up to the NATO summit.

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So if Ukraine would request more ammunition, spare parts or military equipment this year, for example, then the federal government would have to say “no.” And hope that another country will jump into the breach.

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Read more (Original German): https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/ukraine-hilfe-deutschland-102.html

Germany officially stopped Russian gas imports in 2022. But there is evidence a significant amount of Russian gas is still being imported by the EU in disguised form – the gas is being liquified, then allegedly sold via gas exporting third parties like Qatar.

War in Ukraine: Why is the EU still buying Russian gas?

Arthur Sullivan 04/29/2024April 29, 2024

Although the EU has dramatically reduced the amount of Russian gas it imports, significant quantities are still flowing into the bloc.

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How LNG imports from Russia replaced pipeline gas

According to EU data, the share of Russian pipeline gas member states imported fell from 40% of the total in 2021 to about 8% in 2023. However, when Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is included —  natural gas cooled down to liquid form so it can be transported by ship —  the total share of Russian gas in the EU’s total last year was 15%.

A key way the EU reduced its reliance on Russian gas was by increasing LNG imports from countries such as the United States and Qatar. However, this has inadvertently led to a surge of heavily discounted Russian LNG entering the bloc.

According to the data provider Kpler, Russia is now the EU’s second-biggest LNG supplier. LNG imports from Russia accounted for 16% of the EU’s total LNG supply in 2023, a 40% increase compared with the amount Russia sold to the EU in 2021.

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Read more: https://www.dw.com/en/war-in-ukraine-why-is-the-eu-still-buying-russian-gas/a-68925869

Why is continued Russian involvement in German energy supplies important?

Germany is in a heap of trouble with its budget, the hundreds of billions of Euros Germany spent and continues to spend on its failed Energiewende green energy project have thrown government finances into chaos, and led to unpopular public deficits. Germany’s incompetent green politicians are terrified that any rise in economic hardship or further public outrage at the nation’s precarious finances will spur the rise of the populist right wing Alternative for Germany movement.

It wouldn’t take much of a disruption to German energy supplies to topple this fragile budget situation. Even a few delayed shipments of that thinly disguised Russian gas could trigger another politically damaging German energy price spike, and push German public finances even deeper into the red.

There is a missing link in this chain, I don’t have evidence that Moscow recently stepped up pressure on Germany to stop supporting Ukraine. But the timing of this decision to stop supporting Ukraine, right in the middle of a German budget crisis, within days of Ukraine’s surprise salient into Russian territory, seems intriguing.

Germany’s withdrawal of open ended support for Ukraine creates a huge risk for the United States. If the rest of Europe follows Germany’s lead, and also starts pulling support for Ukraine, the Biden / Harris administration will be left with the embarrassment of supporting a war on another continent which even Ukraine’s neighbours don’t care about. The “hope that another country will jump into the breach” – I wonder which other country German officials have in mind? With the tattered veil of European military support ripped aside, the Ukraine war would openly become a direct military confrontation between the USA’s Ukrainian proxy and the nuclear armed Russian Federation.

If I am right, Europe is truly paying the price for their failed experiment in green energy. European governments are still so beholden to Russian energy supplies, they have to dance like performing bears whenever Moscow cracks its whip, even as Russia eats one of their neighbours. Yet with their very political survival being threatened, most European politicians still haven’t found the political courage to change course and admit their green energy push was a mistake.