Studies are marvellous things. Almost seven years ago a study published in the journal Nature Geoscience led to this striking Guardian headline: “Global warming will weaken wind power, study predicts”. The abstract of the study was a little more nuanced, concluding that climate change and a warming planet would result in “decreases in wind power across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and increases across the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, with substantial regional variations.”

The Guardian was concerned (but not sufficiently so to stop campaigning for more windfarms):

The research is the first global study to project the impact of temperature rises on wind energy and found big changes by the end of the century in many of the places hosting large numbers of turbines.

Wind farms have grown more than fivefold in the last decade and plunging costs have made them a key way of reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning. But in the central US, for example, the power of the wind could fall by nearly a fifth…

…It does mean such changes need to be taken into account in planning future wind farms, he said, and also in assessing how much wind farms overall can cut global emissions.

Ironically, perhaps:

The biggest fall was in Japan, where wind farm building is just beginning to accelerate, with wind energy projected to fall by 58kW, or about 10%. The central US was second with 49kW but because the average current winds are generally weaker than in Japan, this represents a larger 17% drop. The UK is anticipated to fall by 36kW, or 5%.

Fast forward almost seven years and – phew! – we have a new and exciting headline: “Global heating could raise potential for offshore wind power, study says”; and an even more exciting sub-heading: “Heating of 4C could increase potential offshore wind energy by average of 9% by end of century, research suggests”.

This time the research (titled “Increases of Offshore Wind Potential in a Warming World”) is published in Geophysical Research Letters, here. The “Plain language summary” is music to the ears of wind farm developers:

Wind energy is key to achieving global carbon neutrality. While onshore wind has been extensively studied, offshore wind energy (OWE) projections have received less attention. Climate models, particularly those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6), have underestimated changes in OWE in past decades. Our study addresses this by using a state-of-the-art reanalysis, ERA5, to correct these underestimations in CMIP6 models and project future changes in offshore wind power density (WPD) in a warming world. We discover that global offshore WPD is expected to rise throughout the 21st century. By the end of the century, we project an increase in offshore WPD by 3.8%–18.3% under various emission scenarios. Specifically, with global warming of 4°C (and 2°C), we expect increases of 8.9%–9.2% (and 0.2%–2.2%) compared to that at a 1.5°C warming level. Europe stands out under 4°C global warming, with the largest projected increase in offshore WPD (26%). This …highlights the growing importance of offshore wind in our energy mix and underscores the need for improved modeling to guide investments and policies.

Isn’t that great? In less than seven years Europe and North America go from being net losers to big winners:

Overall, in regions with the higher current installations, the most substantial increase in offshore WPD is expected in Europe as global warming intensifies, although noteworthy increases are also evident in NA.

By happy coincidence, this is where so many new wind farms are planned. Happily too:

…Notably, the regions covering the East China Sea, the Sea of Japan, and the Bay of Bengal, which exhibited decreasing trends, are projected to accelerate…

As so often seems to be the case, however:

More research is needed to understand the impact of extreme wind events and to map the changes in wind energy at a higher resolution.

Send more money – we’re getting there! And isn’t it wonderful that the science is so settled.