The Week That Was: 2024 09-07 (September 7, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience.” – Albert Einstein (1933)

Number of the Week: Down 50%

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: This TWTW follows up on Tom Gallagher’s presentations with further work from paleo data claimed to show that increasing CO2 concentrations cause strong increases in temperatures. As with Gallagher, Patrick Frank follows a post by Willis Eschenbach which questions conclusions from paleo data and does hypothesis testing to see if a significant determinant of temperatures for the past 66 million years. Also discussed is a report by Joe D’Aleo and Roy Spencer on declining tornado activity in the US. Finally, TWTW presents speculation on why hurricane activity is down thus far this year.

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Hypothesis Testing: The work of Willis Eschenbach has been significant in exposing weaknesses in widely accepted papers claiming to support the hypothesis that increases in carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2) cause temperatures to rise significantly. The work has prompted others to follow up and report their findings. For example, Eschenbach patiently unraveled the data presented in the 2020 paper by Thomas Westerhold, et al. (over 20 co-authors) in AAAS Science which clumped data together to assert that over the past 67 million years. Earth has four distinct temperature periods: Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse and Icehouse, which we are in now. Westerhold, et al. claimed these periods were associated with CO2 concentrations. Eschenbach showed that in each of these periods CO2 concentrations varied widely, but temperatures were relatively unchanged.

As discussed in the past two TWTWs geoscientist Tom Gallagher took the Eschenbach work and showed that changes in the locations of Earth land masses and ocean currents better explained the extended periods of wide CO2 concentrations but little variation in temperatures. It is during the last period, with the closing of the Caribbean Seaway and the forcing of a North South flow of ocean currents that Earth has experienced frequent glaciation with brief warm periods such as the one now, the Holocene (the last 11,700 Years).

Another paper on paleo data prompted further work by Eschenbach exposing the weaknesses in the paper: “Atmospheric CO2 over the Past 66 million Years” from Marine Archives, by James W.B. Rae, et al., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2021 in which the abstract states:

“Throughout Earth’s history, CO2 is thought to have exerted a fundamental control on environmental change. Here we review and revise CO2 reconstructions from boron isotopes in carbonates and carbon isotopes in organic matter over the Cenozoic—the past 66 million years. We find close coupling between CO2 and climate throughout the Cenozoic, with peak CO2 levels of ∼1,500 ppm in the Eocene greenhouse, decreasing to ∼500 ppm in the Miocene, and falling further into the ice age world of the Plio–Pleistocene. Around two-thirds of Cenozoic CO2 drawdown is explained by an increase in the ratio of ocean alkalinity to dissolved inorganic carbon, likely linked to a change in the balance of weathering to outgassing, with the remaining one-third due to changing ocean temperature and major ion composition. Earth system climate sensitivity is explored and may vary between different time intervals. The Cenozoic CO2 record highlights the truly geological scale of anthropogenic CO2 change: Current CO2 levels were last seen around 3 million years ago, and major cuts in emissions are required to prevent a return to the CO2 levels of the Miocene or Eocene in the coming century.

CO2 reconstructions over the past 66 Myr from boron isotopes and alkenones are reviewed and re-evaluated.
CO2 estimates from the different proxies show close agreement, yielding a consistent picture of the evolution of the ocean-atmosphere CO2 system over the Cenozoic.
CO2 and climate are coupled throughout the past 66 Myr, providing broad constraints on Earth system climate sensitivity.
Twenty-first-century carbon emissions have the potential to return CO2 to levels not seen since the much warmer climates of Earth’s distant past.”

The Cenozoic Era began 66 million years ago. As with the Westerhold paper, the Rae paper is used to claim that humans increasing CO2 concentrations will greatly increase global temperatures. Why many groups claim more CO2, essential for photosynthesis which creates food for all complex living organisms, will cause mass extinctions of life is beyond discussion in TWTW. Writing in WUWT, Eschenbach quoted from the Rae paper and stated: [Boldface added]

“’Changing levels of atmospheric CO2 have long been implicated in the well-documented cooling of the climate through the Cenozoic; however, outside of a handful of well-studied climate transitions, it has been hard to make a close link between CO2 and climate. Our new combined marine-based CO2 compilation shows, more clearly than in previous studies, a close correlation between CO2 and records of global temperature (based on either geochemical reconstructions and/or the state of the cryosphere) through the entire Cenozoic.

Nonetheless, it is clear, even with these caveats, that atmospheric CO2 and temperature are closely coupled, both across the data set as a whole and within shorter time windows. While the data set as a whole suggests a relatively high climate sensitivity, much of this temperature change is apparently accomplished by jumps between different climate states.’

Hmmm, sez I … I wondered why they didn’t mention the value of what they claim is “a relatively high climate sensitivity” for the data set as a whole. So, I figured I’d take a look at their data.

For the CO2 data, that was easy. They provide it in an Excel file in their Supplemental Material.

For the temperature data, the total opposite. They say, “Surface temperature estimated from the benthic δ18O stack of Westerhold et al. (2020), using the algorithm of Hansen et al. (2013)” … except they don’t give you the relevant links to the data or the algorithm.”

After a lengthy examination, Eschenbach applied the Stefan-Boltzmann law and concluded: [Boldface in original]

“Yikes. So, there’s the perplexitude [sic]—we’re told to believe that a change in CO2 forcing of 13 W/m2 causes a corresponding 128 W/m2 in upwelling surface longwave radiation. [Boldface added]

But where does the extra energy come from? Seems like the tail is wagging the dog. After allowing for the 13 W/m2 of CO2 forcing, there’s another 115 W/m2 of extra energy leaving the surface … but where did it all come from?

By comparison, solar energy absorbed by the surface is 164 W/m2. So, the surface needs to be getting another three-quarters of a sun’s worth of energy from … somewhere,

It would have to be some extraordinarily large feedback to the warming if that’s what caused more warming. The feedback factor would have to be ~ 0.9 … and if the feedback factor is greater than 1.0, it grows without end. And that would suggest that at some point in the past, the natural fluctuations in this feedback would have led to endless growth.

And it’s difficult to think of a physical process that would supply that 115 W/m2 to the surface. For example, total cloud albedo reflects about 75 W/m2 back to space. So, if the positive cloud feedback led to the complete disappearance of the clouds, that would only increase the surface absorbed solar by 66 W/m2 after adjusting for increased surface reflection … and we’re looking for 115 W/m2.

The same is true for the positive water feedback. The numbers aren’t big enough. The IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 7 Section 7.4.2.2 estimates a combined water vapor and lapse rate feedback at 1.12 W/m2 per °C of warming. The warming back to 60 million years ago is about 15°C. So, water vapor + lapse rate feedback would be on the order of 15°C * 1.12 W/m2 per °C = 17 W/m2 … and we’re looking for 115 W/m2.

What else … the paleo temperature or paleo CO2 might be incorrectly calculated, in which case none of this shows anything.

A final possibility, of course, is that the warming has little to do with CO2 and that the CO2 levels are a function of temperature and not the other way around …

I titled this post “A Curious Paleo Puzzle”. That’s the puzzle. How can an increase of 13 W/m2 in CO2 forcing cause an increase of 115 W/m2 of upwelling surface longwave radiation?”

Eschenbach’s work prompted Patrick Frank of the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford, to write a paper published by Geosciences: Cenozoic Carbon Dioxide: The 66 Ma Solution. Frank also wrote a more readable post for WUWT, discussed here: “Ockham’s View of Cenozoic CO2.” Occam’s razor is a principle attributed to the 14^th century friar William of Ockham. It is a problem-solving principle that if there are two ideas or solutions to a problem, use the simpler one.

In testing the claim that the increase in CO2 comes from warming oceans, Frank uses Henry’s Law: at a constant temperature, the weight of a gas dissolved by a liquid is proportional to the pressure of the gas upon the liquid. [There are exceptions such as electrolytic solutions, which do not apply here.] On Earth at sea level, atmospheric pressure is quite constant. Thus, the solubility of CO2 in oceans depends only on temperature. Frank discusses extensive volcanism which gave periods of dramatic increase in CO2 and asserts that these periods explain the significant variations in CO2 concentrations, not ocean warming releasing CO2. Frank states: [Emphasis in original]

“Rae, et al., (2021) also included a 66-million-year record of d18O proxy global average sea surface temperature (SST), which Jim Hansen and colleagues had published in 2013. The usual CO2 –> T interpretation was advanced in both papers.

The solubility of CO2 is temperature dependent. The existence of both a paleo-SST [Sea Surface Temperature] record and a paleo-CO2 record brought to mind the possibly that the rise and fall of SST was natural variation and atmospheric CO2 just followed — the Null Hypothesis.

The Null Hypothesis

The idea is that some independent natural process drove SST. The partial pressure of atmospheric CO2, P (CO2), followed SST-driven solubility. The Null Hypothesis proposes a minimalist explanation for Cenozoic SST and P (CO2). It requires no additional entity; namely the radiative forcing of CO2. A preliminary analysis looked favorable.

The idea is worked out in Cenozoic Carbon Dioxide: the 66 Ma Solution, just published and open access in MDPI Geosciences. The state of the field requires attention to the basics of the typical criticism. Two anonymous reviewers asked for extensive revisions and clarifications. The highly qualified academic editors evaluated the revised manuscript. Submission-to-acceptance took just over a month. The whole process was completely professional. MDPI Geosciences was the second submission journal. The first submission journal held the manuscript for 3.5 months but could not find a manuscript editor. So, that submission was stillborn.

This post sketches the results; details in the paper.

SST, CO2, and Henry’s Law

Flood Basalt Volcanism: The first step was to find whether the oceans can warm without recourse to CO2 forcing. Meet the North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP). The NAIP contains the crustal remains of the flood basalts that erupted 56 to 52 million years before the present (MYr BP), when Greenland split off from the Eurasian land mass.

The eruptions of the NAIP produced about 6.6 million km3 of basaltic magma over a period of 3-4 million years. Typically, the main phase of flood basaltic eruptions occurred over about half the time of the full duration.”

Frank discusses the extent and temperature of the basalt flow and states:

“Nevertheless, the thermal impact of the 6.6 million km3 of NAIP basaltic magma alone can account for the entire increase in SST entering the post-Cretaceous Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Although the NAIP eruption was accompanied by large emissions of CO2 and other gases, there is no need to invoke CO2 forcing to account for the increased SST of the PETM.”

In discussing Henry’s Law, Frank states:

“Typically, most dissolved CO2 is the neutral molecule. However, a small fraction of the dissolved CO2 reacts with water to produce carbonic acid (H2CO3). At the alkaline pH of the upper ocean, H2CO3 is converted into bicarbonate (HCO3)− and carbonate (CO32)−. Removal of H2CO3 into carbonate means additional CO2 converts into carbonic acid (Le Chatelier).

Current oceanic ratios are CO2, 0.5%; (HCO3)−, 87.4%, and (CO32)−, 12.1%….the thin aqua vertical bar shows the anticipated impact of so-called “ocean acidification” from doubled CO2: slightly less carbonate, slightly more bicarbonate, and a hair more neutral CO2. The change is pH 8.1 to pH 7.9. The surface waters remain alkaline. They will not have been acidificationized [sic].”

Frank gives extensive diagrams demonstrating these principles and the changes in SST and Seawater H+ (so called acidification but remaining alkaline) as well as changing CO2 concentrations over the past 66 million years. Also, he gives diagrams illustrating changes in CO2 concentrations taken from VOSTOK ice cores over the past 400,000 years. Frank concludes:

“The behavior of P (CO2) across the 66 million years of the Cenozoic is consistent with the Null Hypothesis. [Temperature variation and the rise and fall of Carbon Dioxide concentrations are independent of one another, CO2 variation does not influence temperatures significantly.]

High SSTs are produced by large scale submarine flood basalt magmatic events capable of warming the entire global ocean — about 1 C for each million km3 of eruptive basaltic magma. When an extreme magmatic event warmed the global ocean, marine CO2 outgassed into the atmosphere. When flood basaltic magmatism was quiescent, the global ocean cooled, and atmospheric CO2 was absorbed.

The rises and falls of P (CO2) can be understood as physical re-equilibrations across the ocean surface in response to variations in SST, and changes in the concentrations of oxides of carbon caused by volcanism or carbonate drawdown.

Although extreme volcanic events released copious CO2, radiative forcing by CO2 is not needed to explain the high SSTs of the PETM, or of the Oligocene warm period, or of the Miocene Climate Optimum. [Boldface added]

During the Quaternary, the cycling of P (CO2) is entirely consistent with Henry’s Law re-equilibration, as SST varied over an 11 C glacial/interglacial range.

For the past 66 million years, atmospheric CO2 can be understood as a neutral spectator molecule, right up through the present.

A short commentary [citations omitted here]

What current research reveals about consensus climatology:

Climate models cannot predict air temperature:

Absent climate models, there is no evidence whatever that CO2 emissions have done, are doing, will do, or can do, anything to global air temperature.

The surface air temperature record is climatologically useless: and the published field calibration experiments referenced in those papers.

Absent a reliable historical air temperature record, the rate or magnitude of modern climate warming are unknowable. Only the poleward migration of the northern tree line and a lengthened growing season indicate a recently warmed climate.

The record of the past 66 million years shows that atmospheric CO2 is driven, not a driver. [Frank’s paper in Geosciences]

As a general and unavoidable conclusion: the dogma that the radiative forcing of CO2 controls global mean surface air temperature should be set aside.

The party’s over.”

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Tornado Alley: According to the Royal Meteorological Society the US has over 1,200 tornadoes every year, while Canada ranks a distant second with an average of 100 per year. There is good reason to inquire if recent warming will add to the number of tornadoes in the US. Unfortunately, the concern has prompted false responses such as from NOAA administrators (Lubchenco and Karl). Writing for the Heritage Foundation, meteorologist Joe D’Aleo and atmospheric scientist Roy Spencer put an end to such speculation and abusive response in “Twisters and Trends: An Analysis of U.S. Tornado Activity and Climate Change.” The summary states:

“While human-caused climate change is often blamed for an increase in severe weather, the most severe storm element—the destructive tornado—has decreased markedly in frequency since the 1950s. Claims that severe storms are causing more destruction are only true because there is now more infrastructure to destroy than ever before, not because of carbon-dioxide emissions and climate change. There are indeed factors that are associated with the incidence of tornadoes, but these are largely a manifestation of natural variability. These facts contradict the narrative the public often hears that human-caused climate change causes more intense storms and more expensive weather disasters.”

The Key Takeaways are:

“There has been a 50 percent reduction in strong tornadoes in the U.S. since the 1950s; weak tornado counts increased until 1990 due to better reporting.

When tornadoes do occur, growing population and infrastructure put more property and lives at risk, but growth-normalized tornado damage has decreased since 1950.

These facts do not support claims that increasing greenhouse gas emissions are causing storms to intensify.”

See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/tornadoes-around-world#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20averages%20over,average%20of%20100%20per%20year.

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What Hurricanes? Many meteorologists predicted a strong hurricane season for the north Atlantic basin, particularly the US. The season runs from June 1 to November 30 and is almost one half over with no major hurricanes hitting the US. This has prompted speculation on why there are no major hurricanes. US meteorologist Ryan Maue speculated several reasons. P Gosselin writes:

“Maue suspects various reasons: The eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano or a lot of Saharan dust over the Atlantic. Maue notes that the absence of hurricanes does not completely contradict the conventional theories on climate change. Fewer storms are expected, but possibly more severe ones. They have so far failed to materialize, which is a blessing for the people who may be affected. The Sahara itself is also currently experiencing a very rare weather phenomenon. It is raining heavily for the conditions there. Meteonews.ch:

‘The reason for this precipitation pattern can be found in the so-called Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). An area around the equator where the trade winds from the northern hemisphere and the southern hemisphere meet. The winds are weak here, but the humidity is very high. This zone is known for its heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, which occur when the warm, moist air rises, cools and then falls back to earth as rain. The ITCZ is a kind of low-pressure trough that stretches around the globe and follows the zenith of the sun with a delay of around 3 to 4 weeks. Depending on the ratio of land and water masses, the ITCZ is deflected regionally more to the north or south. As land masses have a significantly lower heat storage capacity compared to water masses, the land warms up faster than the sea and the ITCZ meanders more strongly here.

Normally, wave-like weather systems (so-called African Easterly Waves, AEW) develop at this time of year, which move from east to west and typically move from the Guinea Highlands across the equatorial Atlantic and act to spawn hurricanes. Currently, this process is somewhat suppressed, which is currently reducing tropical activity in the Atlantic. At the beginning of the hurricane season, a much more active season had been forecast for this year due to the high-water temperatures and the transition to La Niña conditions.’

Both events are good evidence that science is still far from reaching the end of its knowledge in this area and that research remains important.” [Boldface in original]

Keeping with the speculation, TWTW offers that the strong La Niña in the El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] has not materialized as expected: the Climate [weather] Prediction Center is still on a “La Niña Watch.” See links under Changing Weather and https://meteonews.ch/de/News/N14098/Seltener-Regen-in-der-Sahara

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NO TWTW NEXT WEEK

TWTW WILL RETURN THE WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER 28

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Number of the Week: Down 50%: According to the report by Joe D’Aleo and Roy Spencer the US Annual Strong Tornado Counts, EF2 to EF5 are down 50% from 1950 to 2022. The worst period was the mid-50s to the mid-70s. “EF2 tornados have a three-second gust of 111 miles to 135 miles per hour [50 meter per second to 60 m/s] and EF5 tornados have a three-second gust of more than 200 miles per hour [89 m/s].” See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

Sunspots surge to 23-year high as solar maximum continues to intensify far beyond initial expectations

By Harry Baker, Live Science, Sep 3, 2024 [H/t Sjcvrk]

https://ift.tt/PlF0uV3

The average number of visible dark patches on the sun’s surface in August was higher than any other month since September 2001. The final count was more than twice as high as experts initially predicted it would be.

[SEPP Comment: Assuming the Svensmark Hypothesis, could an increase in sunspots result in an increase in solar wind and magnetic activity, which reduce the intensity of high-energy cosmic rays hitting Earth’s atmosphere causing a reduction in cloud cover, thus a reduction in albedo and increased warming of Earth?]

Censorship

[UN IPCC] Proxy reconstructions: worse than we thought

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2024

Kudos to these authors for risking getting beaten up with worn-out hockey sticks for challenging the assumption that proxies based on tree rings are reliable. On which point, finally, we note that the paper was published in the rather obscure journal Science China Earth Sciences. We wouldn’t be surprised if high-profile western science journals all turned it down, for all the reasons we went over in our recent series on the climate science #socialfeedback loop.

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer

The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere

By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023

Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases

By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020

https://ift.tt/y93ADvK

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Ockham’s View of Cenozoic CO2

By Pat Frank, WUWT, Sep 4, 2024

Link to paper: Atmospheric CO2 over the Past 66 Million Years from Marine Archives.

By James W.B. Rae, et al., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2021 https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-earth-082420-063026

Link to post by Eschenbach: “A Curious Paleo Puzzle.”

By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Feb 23, 2024

From Frank: For the past 66 million years, atmospheric CO2 can be understood as a neutral spectator molecule, right up through the present.

New Study Finds CO2 Is Merely A Climate ‘Spectator’, A Non-Factor In Explaining Paleoclimate Changes

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 5, 2024

Link to one study: Cenozoic Carbon Dioxide: The 66 Ma Solution

By Patrick Frank, Geosciences, Sep 3, 2024

https://ift.tt/OR1zynQ

Link to a second study: Combining Modern and Paleoceanographic Perspectives on Ocean Heat Uptake

By Geoffrey Gibbie, Annual Review of Marine Science, 2021

https://ift.tt/MD824GL

Twisters and Trends: An Analysis of U.S. Tornado Activity and Climate Change

By Joe D’Aleo and Roy Spencer, The Heritage Foundation, Aug 28, 2024

https://ift.tt/zQl1bMZ

Class is In

Know the Facts on Extreme Weather and Climate

By Roger Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, Sep 2, 2024

https://ift.tt/MF6ZpSo

Rising Global Temperatures Saving Millions Of Lives, Study Finds. Cold Kills 30 Times More!

By Peter F. Mayer, Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 1, 2024

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Tidbits

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2024

There go those islands, apparently. Earth.com thunders that “The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently reported that the sea levels in the vast Pacific Ocean are climbing faster than the global average, raising alarm bells for low-lying island nations.” Um you do know all the oceans are connected, right?

Breaking the Bottleneck: The Case for Transmission Policy Reform

By Purvi Patel, Real Clear Energy, Sep 3, 2024

https://ift.tt/qcvgsUw

Reforms to expand transmission infrastructure are essential to expand our ability to integrate more renewable energy like wind and solar into the grid and make it available to communities that otherwise wouldn’t have access.

[SEPP Comment: Based on the false assumption that extreme weather events are increasing, the author tries to justify unreliable electricity for the grid. The former goal of utility providers was reliability at least 99.99% of the time. Wind power does not work even 50% of the time.]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Hottest Summer Ever

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 7, 2024

[SEPP Comment: How comprehensive were global temperatures in the 1930s, the hottest decade in the US, the largest land mass with comprehensive data?]

Do Green Energy Subsidies Work?

By Jonathan Lesser, Real Clear Wire, Sep 3, 2024

https://ift.tt/NRsjrAW

Royal Society report contains half-trillion-pound error

Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Sep 2, 2024

https://ift.tt/vQM0lxP

Link to report: A tale of two errors

By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Sep 2, 2024

https://ift.tt/iq2371G

If we assume that costs fall, over 25 years, from the levels seen today to those assumed by the Royal Society, the cost of building the Net Zero grid is around £960 billion rather than the £410 billion claimed by the Royal Society.”

[UN IPCC] Proxy reconstructions: worse than we thought

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2024

Kudos to these authors for risking getting beaten up with worn-out hockey sticks for challenging the assumption that proxies based on tree rings are reliable. On which point, finally, we note that the paper was published in the rather obscure journal Science China Earth Sciences. We wouldn’t be surprised if high-profile western science journals all turned it down, for all the reasons we went over in our recent series on the climate science #socialfeedback loop.

[SEPP Comment: Bashing the PAGES2k hockey-stick.]

Renewables: Are They Really Cheaper?

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Aug 31, 2024

https://ift.tt/sEfCYQd

Now, how much are all these subsidies and handouts worth in consumer electricity rates? It’s all completely opaque.

#CheerfulCharts #5: Literacy

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2024

Degrowth: The Final Solution

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Sep 4, 2024

Degrowth is the final solution against modernity. It is an anti-human philosophy of stagnation and decline based on the belief that there are too many people. Remember Paul Ehrlich?

Energy & Environmental Review: September 3, 2024

By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Sep 3, 2024

Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

Percent dry weight (biomass) increases for garden tomatoes with extra CO2 in the air

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2024

From the CO2Science Archive

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Ed Miliband ‘considers scrapping wind power target

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 6, 2024

Well, I did not expect my prediction to come true quite so quickly!!!

How it ends: 96% of Big Corporations are quietly abandoning their climate commitments

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 31, 2024

Record CO2 Growth

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 6, 2024

Seeking a Common Ground

What do we know about sharks?

By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Sep 1, 2024

Drumlines are supposedly deployed near popular swimming beaches with the intention of reducing the number of sharks in the vicinity and therefore the probability of shark attack. But Lammermoor beach is not a popular swimming beach, and this has more to do with crocodiles than sharks.

Model Issues

The Puppeteers of Perception: How AI Systems Are Designed to Mislead. Jonathan Cohler

By Joathan Cohler, Via Charles Rotter, WUWT, Sep 3, 2024

[SEPP Comment: Transcript from the DDP meeting in July.]

Energy Modeling as Gambling Addiction

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Sep 5, 2024

Measurement Issues — Atmosphere

UAH Global Temperature Update for August, 2024: +0.88 deg. C

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 2, 2024

Persistent global-averaged warmth was (unusually) contributed to this month by the Southern Hemisphere. Of the 27 regions we routinely monitor, 5 of them set record-warm (or near-record) high monthly temperature anomalies in August, all due to contributions from the Southern Hemisphere:

The linear warming trend since January 1979 now stands at +0.16 C/decade (+0.14 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.21 C/decade over global-averaged land).

Global Temperature Report

By John Christy, Roy Spencer and Staff, Earth System Science Center, August 2024, Sep 4, 2024

Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2024/August/202408_Map.png

Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2024/August/202408_Bar.png

Text: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2024/August/GTR_202408AUG_v1.pdf

UAH August 2024: Most Regions Cooler, Offset by SH Land Spike

By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Sep 4, 2024

[SEPP Comment: Not quite accurate. Most areas are warmer than usual for the seasonal norms, but cooler than July.]

Changing Weather

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

By Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, NOAA, Sep 3, 2024

Mysteries Surrounding The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. CO2 Definitely Not The Driving Factor

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 6, 2024

“Atlantic Tropics Are Completely Broken”

By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Sep 3, 2024

https://ift.tt/IOrlDmU

Meteorologist Ryan Maue has offered his take on why tropical development activity remains depressed:

Floods Data For 2023/24 in England

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 5, 2024

There is no evident pattern in the long-term data.

Superinversion on the Hottest Day for the Rest of the Year

An inversion is when temperatures increase with height.

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 5, 2024

https://ift.tt/UsfAL2t

Changing Seas

Sea Levels and Excel

By Alan Welch, Via Kip Hansen, WUWT, Sep 3, 2024

[SEPP Comment: Discovering some of the weaknesses in statistical analysis not explained in statistical programs.]

The critical role of Atlantic-Arctic water mixing in global ocean circulation uncovered

By Sophie Jenkins, SPX, Sep 1, 2024

https://ift.tt/ytx2ZjB

Link to paper: Formation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation lower limb is critically dependent on Atlantic-Arctic mixing

By Dipanjan Dey, et al., Nature Communications, Aug 26, 2024

https://ift.tt/L8ES9Dt

[SEPP Comment: Nothing new. See link immediately below.]

What you see is not what you get

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2024

“A patch of the central equatorial Atlantic began cooling at record rates in June/ Scientists can’t identify a good reason to explain this sudden temperature shift”. The fact is climate is complex, unstable and poorly understood. Even if it’s almost always presented as a crystal-clear baffling harbinger of doom.

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Greenland Ice Mass Balance Update

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 7, 2024

In summary, ice losses are not accelerating, and are simply part of a much longer climate cycle, going back to the Little Ice Age and beyond. The idea that the icecap will quickly melt away is twaddle.

Lowering Standards

How The Met Office Now Rely On Class 5 Sites To Spread Propaganda

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 3, 2024

Of course, CET temperatures will tend to be lower than somewhere in Sussex. But if there is no trend to hotter September days in the long running CET, any claim that one day at an extremely poorly sited station constitutes proof of climate change is shockingly dishonest.

Met Office Pander To Climate Extremists

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 5, 2024

The Met Office long ago ceased to be a serious scientific organization. Here’s more evidence:

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

Yellow Rain Forecast

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 4, 2024

Grand Canyon hiker deaths rise amid intense heat, flash floods

By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Sep 2, 2024

https://ift.tt/gch6Cdo

[SEPP Comment: There are warnings about both on all the trails. In the summer the North Rim is cool, but the bottom is hot.]

Shuffle off to Buffalo

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2024

We have no sure-fire solution to the vexing and intractable problem that participants in key policy debates interpret evidence differently. But we do think it’s reasonable to ask, when someone declares a region uninhabitable due to hideously deteriorating weather, how it is that more and more people are living there.

Wrong, Oregon Public Broadcasting, Oregonians Are Not Being “Hit Hard” By Climate Change

By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Sep 4, 2024

Where Did The Month’s Rain Go, BBC?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 7, 2024

So once again the Met Office are guilty of issuing unnecessary warnings.

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

No, New York Times, Climate Change Isn’t Destroying Bridges

By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Sep 6, 2024

Literally, it takes two minutes of work on Google search to find this data. Apparently, NYT reporter Coral Davenport couldn’t be troubled to seek out the facts. Or perhaps, she just doesn’t know how.

Climate Science goes full-bore witchcraft: Your beefsteak makes bridges fall like Tinker-Toys

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 3, 2024

The Professor was paid to find a crisis.

Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

David Appell, Awaiting the Death of Climate Skeptics

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 4, 2024 [H/t Chuck Wiese]

[SEPP Comment: Spencer responding to a personal attack.]

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda

And your opera house gets it

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2024

Under the scary heading “17 European World Heritage Sites named as the most at risk from climate change”, EuroNews.green reminds us that a very mild warming will destroy everything nice.

Whereas the Matterhorn probably weighs something on the order of a quarter of a trillion tons so it probably won’t succumb to climate change unless you count continental drift and eons of weathering which it’s hard even for a computer to blame on humans.

Climate Absurdity: More than 13 days per Year Over 86F is a Threat to the Health of Canadians

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 4, 2024

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children

Climate Indoctrination Accelerates As The Narrative Breaks Down

By I & I Editorial Board, Sep 6, 2024

What Junk Nutrition Science Looks Like

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Sep 6, 2024

What Happened To Your “Wettest Summer”, Met Office?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 4, 2024

As I noted at the time, the Met Office’s warning did not even tally with their own 3-Month Outlook and was clearly designed as pure spin intended to scare the public.

What Happened To Your Baking Summer, Mr Dale?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 3, 2024

Questioning European Green

Botched Green New Deal: Business Sentiment In Germany Is Now Free-Falling, “On The Brink”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 31, 2024

Germany is mired in pessimism and fear, with little hope in sight.

This is not ‘leading the world’. It’s economic suicide

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 4, 2024

Questioning Green Elsewhere

The Green New Deal could make electricity 28 times more expensive

By David Wojick, CFACT, Sep 3, 2024

https://ift.tt/YazJjFG

On the other hand, this simple analysis assumes batteries charge and discharge from zero to 100% of capacity. If it is actually 10-90 or 20-80, then a great deal more storage capacity will be needed.

The basic point is that the Green New Deal is impossibly expensive. There is no cure for intermittency.

[SEPP Comment: What energy airheads don’t understand. “The great battery breakthrough is just around the corner” is where it has been for one hundred years without being discovered.]

Green Colorado

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 7, 2024

Green Jobs

440 jobs at heat pump factory are put at risk

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 7, 2024

So much for those vaunted green jobs!

The Political Games Continue

House Republicans Press NOAA Over Data Used To Push Climate Change Narrative

By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Sep 4, 2024

https://ift.tt/hfKdyvG

House Republicans are pressing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) for answers about a signature dataset frequently cited as evidence that climate change is intensifying.

Hide those climate plans until after the election

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 7, 2024

Litigation Issues

The RoundUp Judge Who Got It

By Barbara Pfeffer Billauer, ACSH, Aug 29, 2024

https://ift.tt/aBfxTEI

Biden administration approves natural gas exports after pause is halted

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 3, 2024

https://ift.tt/VUStnPI

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

Ed Miliband’s North Sea tax raid ‘will cost Britain £13bn’

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 3, 2024

[SEPP Comment: How to pay for those energy sources that require subsidies to produce unreliable electricity? Further tax those energy sources that don’t need subsidies to produce reliable energy and electricity.]

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

You can’t really have it both ways

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2024

Over in Germany they may be plotting how to run industries without power, and at the Times plotting how to get infinite wealth without work. But sensible people are making power from oil and gas.

£9 Billion Subsidy Bill For Latest Round Of CfDs

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 5, 2024

Energy Issues – Non-US

Ed Miliband is putting Britain’s future in the hands of eco-fanatics

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 31, 2024

Miliband’s empty energy promise-Spectator

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 5, 2024

“Though not quite up there with history’s great political texts, Ed Miliband’s letter this week to the director of the ESO, which runs Britain’s national grid, is a rather important document. It reveals – or confirms – that Labour has committed itself to decarbonizing Britain’s electricity system by 2030 without really having any idea of how that can be done.”

Miliband’s SOS

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 6, 2024

It makes you wonder what Chris Stark, now head of Miliband’s Mission Control, has been doing for the past few years while in charge at the Committee on Climate Change! After all, the CCC has been publishing goodness knows how many reports, budgets and assorted advice to government on Net Zero. Now it appears that they themselves never had the slightest clue as to how it could be achieved.

Russian Natural Gas Junkie EU Imports More From Russia Than From USA Again

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 4, 2024

[SEPP Comment: Relying on unreliable wind and solar, the EU greatly underestimated its need for natural gas to keep the lights on and factories running. Further, Canada and the US denied expanding gas exports to Europe. All these government policies share the blame.]

“The engines can’t take it, captain” – A global Captain Kirk-like plea for more power gets Scotty’s standard line

By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Sep 5, 2024

New Zealand recently gave us a wicked lesson in the process of understanding the gap between being told not to touch the stove and touching the stove.

A few years back, their youthful, idealistic, and globally exuberant leader, Jacinda Ardern, enacted a ban on petroleum exploration in New Zealand. The legislation was cutting-edge energy policy thinking, in alignment with many global leaders whose ears had been stuffed with talk about how oil and gas properties were quickly going to become stranded assets. These policy advocates “knew” this, and passed their knowledge on to leaders who would be visionaries. Want to be in effect a department store manager, running a country like one, or…do you want to go down in history as one of the brave that saved the world from rising temperatures? Appealing to political egos is shooting fish in a barrel, and so off they went, legislating anti-hydrocarbon agendas hither and yon with joyous abandon.

The Wop-Whoops

New Zealand becomes the latest victim of Net Zero insanity.

By Doomberg, Sep 6, 2024

https://ift.tt/rZoUNld

It didn’t take long for the consequences of Ardern’s energy mishaps to wreak havoc on New Zealand’s economy. Like most countries that embrace the green energy agenda, New Zealand has slipped into a serious but utterly predictable crisis. Energy prices are soaring, heavy industry is culling operations, and fears of rolling blackouts are causing grid operators to plead with consumers to voluntarily cut demand.

Energy Issues – Australia

Aussie Green Economy Blame Storm Gathers Momentum

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 2, 2024

Energy Issues — US

Has the Electricity Reality Check Arrived?

By Todd Snitchler, Real Clear Energy, Sep 05, 2024

https://ift.tt/jt8vQyM

Second, policymakers must temper enthusiasm and set goals that align with the reality of system needs and operational constraints. This could mean pausing policies that hinder the deployment of needed resources or including offramps in legislation to ensure grid reliability.

Fishy Activists Destroying Hydro Dams

By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Sep 4, 2024

The case against the dams is actually about climatism. The fish are not at risk, as shown by many scientific reports. But climatists do not include hydro in their definition of “renewable.” And they promote fear of methane, claiming dam reservoirs increase methane emissions.

So here’s the political solution. Keep the dams open and the fish running to their spawning grounds. And to appease climatists ban any transmission of electricity from those dams to Seattle and Eastern Washington state. Deal?

Louisiana Is Positioning Itself to Power the Southern Renaissance

By Aurelia S. Giacometto, Real Clear Energy, Sep 05, 2024

https://ift.tt/tlu1EJm

[SEPP Comment: Promoting the big three: natural gas, nuclear and hydropower.]

Washington’s Control of Energy

Biden set to announce billions for rural energy in Wisconsin visit

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 5, 2024

https://ift.tt/CqY82RF

[SEPP Comment: Billions for unreliable electricity.]

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Environmental groups challenge federal approval of Louisiana LNG export facility

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Sep 4, 2024

https://ift.tt/qLHVR0W

Nuclear Energy and Fears

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Agency Approves First Generation IV Nuclear Reactor

Construction has started on the new facility in iconic Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

By Leslie Eastman, Legal Insurrection, Sep 1, 2024

https://ift.tt/2dqjuKE

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Random power glut means 80% of solar plant output was thrown away on Sunday

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 5, 2024

Call it “spillage”

Miliband’s flagship wind farm paid nearly £2.5m to keep turbines switched off

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 1, 2024

Rising prices for offshore wind warn of the mounting cost of Net Zero

Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Sep 3, 2024

https://ift.tt/pQV1TR8

“How many times were we subjected to the chorus of ‘wind is cheap’? That refrain now rings hollow and these results show Miliband’s green utopianism to be even more costly and impractical than once feared.”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Big waves off Oregon coast fuel cutting-edge effort to harness the ocean for electricity

By Gosia Wozniacka, The Oregonian, Sep 1, 2024, [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://ift.tt/9c3B1IV

Another limitation: Very few wave energy test sites exist across the world, so developers don’t have a lot of options when it comes to testing.

[SEPP Comment: Is there the reason why few test sites exist for wave power to provide reliable, affordable power, that they fail?]

Invasion Of The Water Snatchers

Texas ranchers are fighting “green” hydrogen projects. “It’s a ridiculous amount of water.”

By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Sep 3, 2024

https://ift.tt/ivrjeH7

[SEPP Comment: What is green about green hydrogen?]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

A tale of two errors

By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Sep 2, 2024

https://ift.tt/iq2371G

Link to report: Large-scale electricity storage

This policy briefing explores the need for energy storage to underpin renewable energy generation in Great Britain. It assesses various energy storage technologies

By Sir Chris Liewelyn Smith, Paul Davies, et al. The Royal Society, September 2023

The results will be published in due course, but it’s fair to say that it’s not looking good for the idea that decarbonization is a rational proposition.

[SEPP Comment: Decarbonization is not harmful only if photosynthesis is harmful.]

Megabattery project run by former Chinese diplomat approved after national security review

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 3, 2024

As usual the MSM make the thing sound huge. [the Megabattery]

In reality however, 160 MWh is only enough to power the UK for about ten seconds, quite literally.

For this BlackRock will want their £200m back, along with a nice fat return on capital.

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Volvo Abandons 2030 EV Target As Market Woes Continue

By Owen Klinsky, Daily Caller, Sep 4, 2024

https://ift.tt/fymtz6G

Petrol Cars “Rationed to Meet Net Zero Targets”

By Will Jones, The Daily Sceptic, Sep 3, 0224

“The new car market is no longer a market, unfortunately. It’s a state-imposed supply chain.”

The EV is red

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 4, 2024

EVs continue to be a hit with everyone except the public, and since government knows best, they remain committed to banning the alternatives. The one glimmer of hope for consumers was the availability of cheap Chinese imports, until Canada and the US slapped a 100% tariff on them to protect the auto sector from being bankrupted by all the exciting opportunities in the new green economy.

California Dreaming

Gavin Newsom calls special session on gas prices

By Sameea Kamal and Alexei Koseff, Cal Matters, Aug 31, 2024

[SEPP Comment: If you penalize companies that produce, you get less production.]

More Water Supply Requires Industry Unity

By Edward Ring, What’s Current, Accessed Sep 5, 2024

https://ift.tt/pilahtN

California adds 24,000 EV charging stations in the first half of 2024

The state this year has approved $1 billion for charging infrastructure to help meet its ambitious car and truck goals

By Rob Nikolewski, The Mercury News, Aug 30, 2024

[SEPP Comment: States do not subsidize gasoline stations, so why subsidize charging stations?]

Other Scientific News

New Study: Human Emissions ‘Irrelevant’ In Determining Changes In Atmospheric CO2 Since 1959

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 2, 2024

Link to research article: Multivariate Analysis Rejects the Theory of Human-caused Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Increase: The Sea Surface Temperature Rules

By Dai Ato, Science of Climate Change, 2024

[SEPP Comment: Without going to the issues in multivariate analysis, the first question regarding the paper is: Why is the CO2 concentration today much higher than during the last interglacial period?]

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

Plastic Police: DC City Gov’t has plastic straw cops to enforce ban! – DC urges public to ‘submit a tip’ if business or org. is ‘in violation’ by using ‘plastic straws and/or stirrers’ or ‘foam’ cups, plates, bowls or plastic bags

By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Sep 6, 2024

[SEPP Comment: The city government cannot solve the city’s high murder rate, (2023 was a 20-year high) but it can solve death by straws?]

Climate scientists’ taxpayer-funded plot to create ‘global cooling’

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 1, 2024

There is no evidence that droughts are getting worse, so why does the Telegraph want its readers to think they will in future?

“Sea ice could be gone by 2012, scientists warn”

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 6, 2024

NO ARTICLES THIS WEEK

via Watts Up With That?

https://ift.tt/bptEuH9

September 9, 2024 at 04:03AM