Month: September 2024

Not Making The News

I wrote Making The News almost three years ago in order to draw attention to what I consider to be the way in which news is now routinely reported by the mainstream media – that is to say, news websites regularly do little more than cut and paste press releases, without bothering to check the accuracy and validity of their contents. Increasingly the press releases in question refer to a “study” or an opinion poll, usually commissioned by the organisation issuing the press release, all with a view to generating some favourable publicity regarding their pet subject. These days the “climate crisis” (sic) and net zero seem to be the subjects that bulk large in this way, and much of the media, especially the BBC, are happy to oblige.

Given that I consider Great British Energy to be an empty shell, I find it surprising to note how little it has to say about anything. In fairness, it might be said that this is because the Great British Energy Bill is currently going through the committee stage and is not yet an Act of Parliament, so it is simply avoiding jumping the gun. Perhaps that is the case. And yet, that hasn’t stopped it dabbling with social media. It has an account with “X” (which I can’t see, because I don’t have an “X” account); it has a You Tube channel (with a single video, five minutes and forty one seconds long, showing a Channel 4 interview with Ed Miliband parroting what I consider to be his usual nonsense); it has a LinkedIn account (which again I can’t see); and it has a Facebook account. They seem to be experimenting, as there is also this Facebook account (described as a Government organisation, with no posts, no likes and no followers) and this one described as an energy company, with two posts from January 2020, one like and five members.

What appears to be the “real” Facebook page has a short but interesting history. It made a brief attempt to appear, for some unknown reason, at the Scotland Against Spin (SAS) Facebook page a few days ago, but as that page is closed to comments other than from members, it failed to be visible to anyone other than SAS admins. When they drew the attention of its members to this, a number of them posted comments at the Great British Energy Facebook page. They were unprepared for this, it seems, and shortly afterwards the page disappeared. Now it’s back, but so far all that is visible is a post updating the profile picture, which makes it clear that its headquarters are (will be?) in Aberdeen. At the time of writing it has no likes and no followers. Again, it is described as an energy company.

Why so coy? It certainly is coy. The news section of its website says virtually nothing, and the rest of its website contains very little at all. I suppose, in fairness, it is all (as it claims) set up on a pro bono basis, and Great British Energy is not yet formally established.

Still, there is some big news that has largely passed without much mention in the media. Yes, the government issued a press release, but it seems to have generated very little interest, and the government doesn’t seem to be much inclined to talk about it. The news in question is that with effect from tomorrow (or so the press release tells us) the government is to acquire the Electricity System Operator (ESO) from National Grid.

This, we are informed, “will support the UK’s energy security, help to keep bills down in the long term, and accelerate the government’s clean power mission.” I note that the talk is now of keeping bills down in the long term, though even that seems unlikely with the government’s accelerated targets for “decarbonising” the national grid. The ESO was formed in 2011 and (as National Grid Electricity System Operator Limited) has until now been a wholly-owned subsidiary of National Grid Holdings One PLC, which in turn is ultimately owned and controlled by National Grid PLC.

Subject to “customary closing adjustments” National Grid is to receive £630 million for the transfer of ESO into government ownership. The government’s press release assures us this is OK because “[t]he majority of taxpayer costs will be recouped via existing charges on energy bills, which previously would have gone to National Grid.” [my emphasis]. Going forward, ESO is to be known as the National Energy System Operator (NESO). Its new Chairman is to be Dr Paul Golby (former CEO of E.ON) and its Chief Executive is to be Fintan Slye. Having worked in the industry for some time, and having been with ESO since 2018, Mr Slye might well be the right man for the job, which is just as well, as he has his work cut out. For on 23rd August 2024 a letter was sent to him jointly by Mr Miliband and by Chris Stark, the new Head of Mission Control for Clean Power 2030. It:

…provides a formal commission to the ESO, in advance of becoming the National Energy System Operator (NESO), to provide practical advice on achieving clean power by 2030 for Great Britain. This advice should consist of a range of pathways that enable a decarbonised power system for Great Britain by 2030 and an enduring contribution to economy-wide decarbonisation beyond 2030….

Rather him than me, especially given this:

…We would ask you to work with Mission Control at DESNZ to ensure that the plan is based on a shared set of assumptions about what is technically required and feasible to deliver clean power by 2030….

David Turver has been unimpressed with the response to date:

In other words, Fintan has slyly moved the goalposts. The work of NESO will not inform the Government or the public about the costs and risks of delivering the as yet undefined net zero grid by 2030. This is now the blind leading the blind to an unknown destination without knowing the price of the ticket. Fintan Slye is ducking his responsibility and we are going to be short-changed again.

I suspect that he may be correct. However, as most days see me solidly sceptical rather than cynical, we shall have to wait and see what develops. I hope Mr Slye has rather more idea than those who wrote the press release, which breathlessly tells us:

Currently, there is no single body responsible for overseeing the strategic planning and design of the country’s electricity and gas networks.

NESO will fill this gap – breaking down the siloes which currently exist between the planning of electricity and gas systems, with independent oversight for the design of all Great Britain’s energy networks.

The move will enable investors to build out new energy infrastructure with confidence in how their project will fit into the country’s wider clean energy plan.

Perhaps this will all come true, more likely it won’t. At least Mr Slye isn’t Mr Miliband, who continues to write things like this:

We need to move Britain off expensive, insecure fossil fuel markets, and onto clean, cheap homegrown power that we control. This is how we reduce bills in the long term, strengthen our energy independence and support skilled jobs across the country.

In any event, tomorrow is the big day. Perhaps by then ENSO will have a website. If you search for it right now you will simply be told “We’re making some changes” along with the promise that they’ll be back up and running tomorrow and that they can’t wait for us to see what’s next.

Maybe by then there’ll be some media interest. There ought to be. This stuff is absolutely critical to the UK’s energy security and pricing. Indifference really isn’t good enough.

via Climate Scepticism

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September 30, 2024 at 01:52PM

Are Hurricanes Getting Stronger?

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Hurricane Helene has brought out the usual claims that global warming is making hurricanes more powerful, a belief fed by disinformation in the media.

I have even seen a remarkably silly comment by somebody today that they when they look at report of Helene, they can see climate change happening.

Two simple pieces of fact show this to be nonsense.

First of all, official data shows there is been no increasing trend in the number of global major hurricanes, ie the most powerful ones:

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=global

Secondly NOAA clearly stated earlier this year that there has been no strong evidence of century scale increasing trends in US landfalling hurricanes or major ones; nor in the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity in the wider Atlantic basin:

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes

via Watts Up With That?

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September 30, 2024 at 12:02PM

Investors Beware Green Equipment Companies

Steve Goreham explains in his Heartland article Why Are Renewable Equipment Companies Such Poor Investments? Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Headlines promote renewable energy equipment companies as part of efforts to transition to Net Zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Wind and solar system providers, electric vehicle manufacturers, green hydrogen producers, and other green equipment firms form a growing share of world industry. But renewable equipment firms suffer poor market returns, so investors should beware.

The Renewable Energy Industrial Index (RENIXX) is a global stock index of the 30 largest renewable energy industrial companies in the world by stock market capitalization. Current RENIXX companies include Enphase Energy, First Solar, Orsted, Plug Power, Tesla, and Vestas.

IWR of Germany established the RENIXX on May 1, 2006, with an initial value of 1,000 points. This month, the RENIXX stood at 1,013 points, essentially zero value growth over the last 18 years. In comparison, the S&P 500 Index more than quadrupled over the same period. The RENIXX is down three years in a row from 2021, losing about half its value.

Wind turbine manufacturers faced serious financial challenges over the last three years, even with rising sales. Rising costs, high interest rates, and project delays continue to impact the profitability of wind projects and equipment suppliers. The stock of Denmark-based Vestas Wind Systems, the world’s largest supplier, rose only 7% over the last 16 years, and its stock price has fallen 58% from a high in 2021. Vestas struggled to make a profit in 2022 and 2023 and suspended dividends to shareholders.

Other major wind suppliers have also been poor investments for shareholders. The stock of Siemens Gamesa, the number two turbine maker, is down 65% since a peak in 2021. Gamesa reported a loss of €4.4 billion in 2023 and received a €7.5 billion bailout from the German government that same year. Other top wind suppliers suffered major stock price declines since 2021, including Goldwind of China (down 77%) and Nordex of Germany (-36%).

Some 80% of the world’s solar panels are manufactured in China and the top six suppliers reside in China. The solar panel industry is beset by overcapacity and severe competition. Stock prices of the top seven suppliers have all declined by more than 50% since 2021. The stock of U.S. firm First Solar has risen since 2021 but remains below its all-time high price reached in 2008.

Tesla, which was founded in 2003, remained the only pure-play, publicly traded EV stock until 2018. By the end of 2021, Tesla’s value had soared to over $1 Trillion, boasting a market value more than Toyota, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, General Motors, Ford, BMW, and Honda combined. But Tesla is the exception.

But in most cases, electric vehicle (EV) companies have been very poor investments. Between 2020 and 2024, 31 EV companies went public on U.S. stock exchanges. Only one of these 31 companies, the Chinese firm Li Auto, saw its price rise since the initial public offering (IPO). Thirty EV firms saw their stock prices fall, most precipitously.

EV company price declines from the IPO price include Fisker (-99%), Nikola (-94%), NIO (-50%), Lucid Group (-75%), and Rivian (-88%). Six others of the 31 companies went bankrupt. Tesla and Chinese firms BYD and Li Auto are the only EV firms profitable today.

ChargePoint is the world’s largest dedicated EV charger company (behind EV manufacturer Tesla), with over 25,000 charging stations in the U.S. and Canada. ChargePoint went public in 2021 by merging with Switchback Energy Acquisition Corporation, valued at $2.4 billion. The firm’s value today is about $585 million, down 76% since 2021.  For fiscal year 2024, ChargePoint lost $458 million on revenue of $507 million.

It’s not clear that any charging company can make money. High-speed, 50-kilowatt EV chargers cost about five times as much as traditional gasoline pumps. Around 80% of EV charging is done at home, reducing the demand for public charging. ChargePoint, EVgo, Wallbox, Allego, and Blink Charging are all valued today at small fractions of their original IPO price. No EV charger firm is profitable, even after continuing to receive large government subsidies.

Plug Power is a leading supplier of hydrogen energy systems, including battery-cells for hydrogen vehicles and electrolyzers to produce green hydrogen fuel. Founded in 1997, the company went public in October 1999 at a split-adjusted price of about $160 per share.

But during its 27-year history, Plug Power has never turned a profit. According to financial reports, the firm lost $1.45 billion in 2024, up from a loss of $43.8 million in 2018. Its current stock price is under two dollars per share.

Traditional established firms are finding that renewable equipment can be poor business. In 2023, Ford lost $4.7 billion on sales of 116,000 electric vehicles, or over $40,000 per vehicle. General Electric’s wind turbine business lost $1.1 billion in 2023.

The U.S. federal government provided subsidies to renewable equipment companies of between $7 billion and $16 billion per year between 2010 and 2022. But the Cato Institute estimates that because of the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, subsidies will skyrocket to about $80 billion in fiscal year 2025.

EIA

Without the fear of human-caused climate change and
a rising level of government subsidies and mandates,
many of these green companies would not exist.

It’s doubtful that carbon dioxide pipelines, heavy electric trucks, offshore wind systems, green hydrogen fuel equipment, and EV charging stations would be viable businesses in unsubsidized capital markets.

During this last year, leading financial firms pulled back on their climate change pledges. Bank of America, JP Morgan, State Street, and Pimco withdrew from Climate Action 100+, which seeks to force companies and investment funds to address climate issues and adopt environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies.

But it’s difficult to invest in renewable equipment companies
when they are losing money.

 

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September 30, 2024 at 10:56AM

Tuesday

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via JoNova

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September 30, 2024 at 10:10AM