Month: September 2024

Llanwddyn:Cwm Cownwy DCNN 7949 – Quantity over quality.

52.74942 -3.46995 Met Office Assessed CIMO Class 5 & UNSATISFACTORY Installed 1/1/1988

I have started with the above image that does NOT show the Stevenson Screen to put the nature of this site in context of its overall surroundings. Located at 235 metres AMSL, the valley sides reach steeply up to a marked spot height of 388 metres. This type of location is highly likely to suffer from “frost hollows” unusual wind effects, heavy shading and is certainly not representative of a large area. The weather experienced at this point of its small valley will be markedly different from areas just a few tens of metres away above the valley sides. This is what the Screen location actually looks like –

Note that there is no attempt at site security/fencing. Clearly this is not quite the highly sophisticated, well equipped and maintained image that the Met Office likes to portray of their weather stations as below.

But perhaps the most bizarre aspect of Llanwddyn: Cwm Cownwy is that it lies just 924 metres away from CIMO CLASS 1 Lake Vyrnwy No 2 which is a very well equipped, well sited and properly maintained station quite rightly rated as “EXCELLENT” as in image below.

{Lake Vyrnwy No 2 location 52.75737 -3.46548}

The Met Office lists over 380 sites currently used for “climate” reporting purposes and the nation’s historic temperature record – Llanwddyn is one of them. Despite its worst possible CIMO rating and unsurprisingly being graded as Unsatisfactory by the Met Office’s own unique and rather vague rating system, they are still using its readings.

The bulk of the Met Office £300 million annual budget is tax payer funded. The £1.2 billion supercomputer is similarly funded. Sites like LLanwddym: Cwm Cownwy appear to represent spending for no justifiable end result given its readings can only ever represent a tiny and very sparsely populated area PLUS they already have an excellent site so incredibly close by.

Why the Met Office continues to run such poor sites is beyond any rational explanation I am aware of. However, I am very confident that should it record a temperature extreme or even “record” then it would almost certainly be nationally proclaimed. Quantity over quality?

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September 27, 2024 at 04:52AM

AI could take your computer from search to research

From CFACT

The news is full of predictions of explosive growth in electricity use because of AI. I wondered what all this AI was going to be used for, but then it hit me. AI could take our personal computers from search to research. I realize this is futuristic, so please read it that way.

The basic idea is very simple. Right now, when you want to know about something, you start by doing a search. You get a bunch of snippets and links to likely documents. So you go to the best-looking ones and read. If your question is fairly broad you might read quite a bit by way of piecing together an answer. Your computer does the search then you do the research.

Suppose AI does the research and reports back to you with your answer? This seems perfectly possible; in fact, it is what these new AI engines seem to do best.

When you think about it, we do a lot of research.

Shopping likely tops the list. So a query might be to find me the cheapest something within a specified distance. A specific car within 300 miles, say, or a special pizza within 5 miles. We do that a lot. Or the best price in all the online outlets, which would take me endless time.

Then there is looking over time. Most stores have sales off and on. For example, Amazon prices for a given item can change a lot over time, including being briefly what looks like erroneously low.

Your AI shopper could effortlessly spend what would be all your time spotting sales. You could even have low ball buy orders just like automated stock buying software does today, but with much more complex instructions from you.

Then, too there is reading product or service reviews and comments. Online reviews are a wonderful addition to shopping, but they are time-consuming to read and digest. AI could do this, but maybe not today’s systems. The problem is that people disagree. Some like it, some do not, and everybody has reasons.

Which brings us to a key issue, namely how does AI handle disagreement? Much of our daily research involves assessing conflicting opinions, but I have yet to see a discourse AI product that can do this well, or even at all.

Much of what we want to know about is controversial. Products, services, politics and policy, sports, diets and health, child rearing and education, news, science, law and regulation, etc. Today’s AI systems seem to take positions based on their training rather than analyzing the issues for us. This is a serious weakness.

Maybe issue analysis will be the next big thing in AI. It may take new programming or, training, or both because issues have a distinct structure. See my “The structure of complex issues” here: https://www.cfact.org/2020/11/17/the-structure-of-complex-issues/. It could also track issues as they evolve over time.

Getting back to the basic point, the WorldWideWeb just turned 30 years old. It has made search and research a key part of daily life. The computer does the search, and we do the research on those search results. There are two kinds of research — fact-finding and issue analysis.

If AI can do some of that research, it could be a major change in our lives. However, that change will be electricity intensive. Some projections of AI power usage are hard to believe as they range up to a whopping 20% of American electricity consumption.

I have not looked at these AI growth models, so have no idea how realistic they are. It is likely they are way too fast. A technology is more than stuff; it is people using stuff, which takes a long time to develop. If AI can do some of our research, it will definitely grow big.

If AI can do our basic research, that would be extremely useful. It would free us up to do other things, like thinking and more advanced research, or even relaxing a bit. Stay tuned.

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September 27, 2024 at 04:06AM

Labour’s Climate Sleaze

By Paul Homewood

 

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LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) -Britain on Thursday named Oxford University professor Rachel Kyte as its new climate envoy and announced a new investment facility, the latest steps in the new government’s efforts to bolster Britain’s role in international climate politics.

The appointment of Kyte, a climate policy professor, as the UK’s special representative for climate comes six weeks before COP29, the latest annual U.N. climate summit.

Countries from around the world will meet in Azerbaijan to try to thrash out new deals to halt rising global temperatures, mitigate the damage they have caused and raise funding for those who have been worst affected.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-names-rachel-kyte-climate-162858001.html

So who is Rachel Kyte?

image

LABOUR’S appointee to a plum government job is linked with a Cayman Islands-based hedge fund which donated £4 million to the party, The National can reveal.

Rachel Kyte has been appointed to the revived UK Government climate envoy role – which when it last existed commanded a salary of at least £130,000.

She is the co-chair of the Quadrature Climate Foundation’s advisory board, which was founded by the same people behind the hedge fund Quadrature Capital.

Quadrature, which holds hundreds of millions of pounds of shares in fossil fuels, private health firms, and arms manufacturers, donated £4m to Labour ahead of the General Election, the investigative news site openDemocracy revealed earlier this month.

The site said its latest filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission from August showed it had hundreds of millions of dollars invested in oil firms including Cenovus, which earlier this year was fined for an Atlantic oil spill. 

It also held a $6m in arms manufacturer Lockheed Martin, investments in US private healthcare firms and massive asset management firms such as Blackstone and KKR.  

The donation only came to light months after the election because it had been made in a brief window where the election donation reporting rules had not come into force after Rishi Sunak announced the date of the ballot.

It is said to be the sixth-largest donation in British political history. ….

But her links with Quadrature Capital have raised questions for the Government over the firm’s financial ties to Labour.

https://www.inkl.com/news/labour-s-new-climate-envoy-linked-with-4m-party-megadonor-hedge-fund

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September 27, 2024 at 03:34AM

Harris-Walz waltz down ‘Green New Deal’ brick road

There don’t appear to be any real-world examples of how the current Administration’s climate and energy policies are leading to a Green nirvana anywhere in the world.

via CFACT

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September 27, 2024 at 03:08AM