Month: September 2024

Daily News 26 Sep 2024

A recent article at the New York Post by Bjorn Lomborg, titled “Shrinking island, vanishing polar bears — the climate scare stories that turn out to be false,” points out that many of the harms the mainstream media claims climate change is supposed to be causing, for example, to polar bears, the Great Barrier Reef, and Pacific island nations, have not happened. This is true. None of the catastrophes that climate alarmists crow about have come to pass.

Lomborg writes that two major themes can be seen in the last 20 years of climate change coverage from government and media: “stubborn unwillingness by campaigners to acknowledge any inconvenient science, and ever-shifting favorite stories, first elevated and then dropped by the wayside.”

He says the one constant throughout those shifting stories is “a fixation on scaring the public, which has in turn shaped bad climate policies.”

This is true; illustrated nicely by the shifting narratives surrounding global greening in particular. Years ago, the dominant narrative was that desertification, or the deaths of lush ecosystems, was our future due to climate change. This was presented as a looming catastrophe in the media and in schools. Now that decades of data show the reverse is happening, that leaf coverage is actually expanding over time amid modest warming, the alarmists say the greening is dangerous, as covered in detail in this Climate Realism post.

Lomborg explores a variety of examples illustrative of climate crisis stories that are false, and sometimes abandoned or downplayed as they have falsified by data that has emerged over time. One case study Lomborg discusses is the polar bear craze.

He writes that “after years of misrepresentation, it finally became impossible for them to ignore a mountain of evidence showing that the global polar bear population has increased substantially from around 12,000 in the 1960s to around 26,000 in the present day.”

The alarmist media has tried to claim that melting sea ice is causing more polar bear encounters and aggression towards humans. However, the simpler explanation is that there are so many more bears than there used to be, and also more human beings in areas where bears naturally live. This is another attempt for media to spin a positive (bear populations recovering from previous overhunting) into a negative.

The second false alarm case study that Lomborg discusses is the missing decline of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and other coral reefs.

Lomborg recalls that “scientists predicted the reef would be decimated by 2022,” and “The Guardian even published an obituary.” He points out that the GBR has more coral cover right now in 2024 than at any point in time since recordkeeping began in 1985.

“The good news gets a fraction of the coverage that the scare stories did,” Lomborg writes.

Climate at a Glance and Climate Realism have repeatedly had to debunk false claims made in the media that the GBR and other barrier reefs are declining, so Lomborg’s point is accurate. It is rare that the media hypes any good news the way it does bad news about various ecosystems such as the GBR, a embarrassing admission from them after they spent decades catastrophizing about it. Even when they do begrudgingly report the record coral extent and data trends, both globally and in the GBR, they can’t help but try to warn that they still might suddenly reverse course and die off.

Lomborg’s also refutes claims that islands like Tuvalu are sinking below the waves because of rising sea levels. He points out that “almost all atoll islands are increasing in size,” which the New York Times (NYT) only just decided to share with their readership earlier this year, who, if they only relied the NYT for their knowledge of the issue, up to that point had likely been under the impression that the opposite was true.

“While rising sea levels do erode land, additional sand from old coral is washed up on low-lying shores,” Lomborg explains, and “studies have long shown this accretion is stronger than climate-caused erosion, meaning the land area of Tuvalu is increasing.”

It’s not just that; scientists have known for decades that atoll islands uniquely change with changing sea levels, scientists from over a hundred years ago such as Charles Darwin proposed that reef-based islands grow upwards towards the light even as sea levels change. In 2010, multiple studies reported that Tuvalu and other islands were actually growing. Eight of the nine coral atolls in Tuvalu have grown, and 75 percent of the nation’s smaller islands have also grown.

It is heartening when major news publications like the New York Post publish work done by Lomborg and other climate realists, who bravely insist on relying on available real-world data in the face of an onslaught of stories and reports referencing scary climate model scenarios. No doubt the Post will get some hate mail for it, but it is a sign of a good news organization dedicated to serving its reader’s interests by following the facts where ever they lead, even on controversial topics, to publish the truth, however unalarming, rather than hyperbole and lies.

via Watts Up With That?

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September 26, 2024 at 12:01PM

Daily News 26 Sep 2024

Rethinking all-of-the-above with Commonwealth Foundation’s André Béliveau

Gabriella speaks with Commonwealth Foundation’s André Béliveau about rethinking all-of-the-above for energy abundance. Tune in to learn more!

via CFACT

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September 26, 2024 at 11:08AM

Daily News 26 Sep 2024

Fatal Flaw Discredits IPCC Science

By way of John Ray comes this Spectator Australia article A basic flaw in IPCC science. Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Detailed research is underway that threatens to undermine the foundations of the climate science promoted by the IPCC since its First Assessment Report in 1992. The research is re-examining the rural and urban temperature records in the Northern Hemisphere that are the foundation for the IPCC’s estimates of global warming since 1850. The research team has been led by Dr Willie Soon (a Malaysian solar astrophysicist associated with the Smithsonian Institute for many years) and two highly qualified Irish academics – Dr Michael Connolly and his son Dr Ronan Connolly. They have formed a climate research group CERES-SCIENCE. Their detailed research will be a challenge for the IPCC 7th Assessment Report due to be released in 2029 as their research results challenge the very foundations of IPCC science.

The climate warming trend published by the IPCC is a continually updated graph based on the temperature records of Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature stations dating from the mid 19th Century. The latest IPCC 2021 report uses data for the period 1850-2018. The IPCC’s selection of Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature records is not in question and is justifiable. The Northern Hemisphere records provide the best database for this period. The Southern Hemisphere land temperature records are not that extensive and are sparse for the 19th and early 20th Century. It is generally agreed that the urban temperature data is significantly warmer than the rural data in the same region because of an urban warming bias. This bias is due to night-time surface radiation of the daytime solar radiation absorbed by concrete and bitumen. Such radiation leads to higher urban night-time temperatures than say in the nearby countryside. The IPCC acknowledges such a warming bias but alleges the increased effect is only 10 per cent and therefore does not significantly distort its published global warming trend lines.

Since 2018, Dr Soon and his partners have analysed the data from rural and urban temperature recording stations in China, the USA, the Arctic, and Ireland. The number of stations with reliable temperature records in these areas increased from very few in the mid-19th Century to around 4,000 in the 1970s before decreasing to around 2,000 by the 1990s. The rural temperature recording stations with good records peaked at 400 and are presently around 200.

Their analysis of individual stations needs to account for any variation in their exposure to the Sun due to changes in their location, OR shadowing due to the construction of nearby buildings, OR nearby vegetation growth. The analysis of rural temperature stations is further complicated as over time many are encroached by nearby cities. Consequently, the data from such stations needs to be shifted at certain dates from the rural temperature database to either an intermediate database or to a full urban database. Consequently, an accurate analysis of the temperature records of each recording station is a time-consuming task.

This new analysis of 4,000 temperature recording stations in China, the USA, the Arctic, and Ireland shows a warming trend of 0.89ºC per century in the urban stations that is 1.61 times higher that a warming trend of 0.55ºC per century in the rural stations. This difference is far more significant than the 10 per cent divergence between urban and rural stations alleged in the IPCC reports; a divergence explained by a potential flaw in the IPCC’s methodology. The IPCC uses a technique called homogenisation that averages the rural and urban temperatures in a particular region. This method distorts the rural temperature records as over 75 per cent of the temperature records used in this homogenisation methodology are urban stations. So, a methodology that attempts to statistically identify and correct some biases that may be in the raw data, in effect, leads to an urban blending of the rural dataset. This result is biased as it downgrades the actual values of each rural temperature station. In contrast, Dr Soon and his coworkers avoided homogenisation so the temperature trends they identify for each rural region are accurate as the rural data are not distorted by the readings from nearby urban stations.

The rural temperature trend measured by this new research is 0.55ºC per century and it indicates the Earth has warmed 0.9ºC since 1850. In contrast, the urban temperature trend measured by this new research is 0.89ºC per century and indicates a much higher warming of 1.5ºC since 1850. Consequently, a distorted urban warming trend has been used by the IPCC to quantify the warming of the whole of the Earth since 1850. The exaggeration is significant as the urban temperature record database used by the IPCC only represents the temperatures on 3-4 per cent of the Earth’s land surface area; an area less than 2 per cent of the Earth’s total surface area. During the next few years, Dr Willie Soon and his research team are currently analysing the meta-history of 800 European temperature recording stations. When this is done their research will be based on very significant database of Northern Hemisphere rural and urban temperature records from China, the USA, the Arctic, Ireland, and Europe.

This new research has unveiled another flaw in the IPCC‘s temperature narrative as trend lines in its revised temperature datasets are different from those published by the IPCC. For example, the rural records now show a marked warming trend in the 1930s and 1940s while there is only a slight warming trend in the IPCC dataset. The most significant difference is the existence of a marked cooling period in the rural dataset for the 1960s and 1970s that is almost absent in the IPCC’s urban dataset. This later divergence upsets the common narrative that rising carbon dioxide levels control modern warming trends. For, if carbon dioxide levels are the driver of modern warming, how can a higher rate of increasing carbon dioxide levels exist within a cooling period in the 1960s and 1970s while a lower increasing rate of carbon dioxide levels coincides with an earlier warming interval in the 1930s and 1940s? Or, in other words, how can carbon dioxide levels increasing at 1.7 parts per million per decade cause a distinct warming period in the 1930s and 1940s while a larger increasing rate of 10.63 parts per million per decade is associated with a distinct cooling period in the 1960s and 1970s! Consequently, the research of Willie Soon and his coworkers is discrediting, not only the higher rate of global warming trends specified in IPCC Reports, but also the theory that rising carbon dioxide levels explain modern warming trends; a lynchpin of IPCC science for the last 25 years.

Willie Soon and his coworkers maintain that climate scientists need to consider other possible explanations for recent global warming. Willie Soon and his coworkers point to the Sun, but the IPCC maintains that variations in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) are over eons and not over shorter periods such as the last few centuries. For that reason, the IPCC point to changes in greenhouse gases as the most obvious explanation for global warming since 1850. In contrast, Willie Soon and his coworkers maintain there can be short-term changes in solar activity and, for example, refer to a period of no sunspot activity that coincided with the Little Ice Age in the 17th Century. They also point out there is still no agreed average figure for Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) despite 30 years of measurements taken by various satellites. Consequently, they contend research in this area is not settled.

The CERES-SCIENCE research project pioneered by Dr Willie Soon and the father-son Connolly team has questioned the validity of the high global warming trends for the 1850-present period that have been published by the IPCC since its first report in 1992. The research also queries the IPCC narrative that rising greenhouse gas concentrations, particularly carbon dioxide, are the primary driver of global warming since 1850. That narrative has been the foundation of IPCC climate science for the last 40 years. It will be interesting to see how the IPCC’s 7th Assessment Report in 2029 treats this new research that questions the very basis of IPCC’s climate science.

The paper is The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data.

Abstract

A statistical analysis was applied to Northern Hemisphere land surface temperatures (1850–2018) to try to identify the main drivers of the observed warming since the mid-19th century. Two different temperature estimates were considered—a rural and urban blend (that matches almost exactly with most current estimates) and a rural-only estimate. The rural and urban blend indicates a long-term warming of 0.89 °C/century since 1850, while the rural-only indicates 0.55 °C/century. This contradicts a common assumption that current thermometer-based global temperature indices are relatively unaffected by urban warming biases.

Three main climatic drivers were considered, following the approaches adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s recent 6th Assessment Report (AR6): two natural forcings (solar and volcanic) and the composite “all anthropogenic forcings combined” time series recommended by IPCC AR6. The volcanic time series was that recommended by IPCC AR6. Two alternative solar forcing datasets were contrasted. One was the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) time series that was recommended by IPCC AR6. The other TSI time series was apparently overlooked by IPCC AR6. It was found that altering the temperature estimate and/or the choice of solar forcing dataset resulted in very different conclusions as to the primary drivers of the observed warming.

Our analysis focused on the Northern Hemispheric land component of global surface temperatures since this is the most data-rich component. It reveals that important challenges remain for the broader detection and attribution problem of global warming: (1) urbanization bias remains a substantial problem for the global land temperature data; (2) it is still unclear which (if any) of the many TSI time series in the literature are accurate estimates of past TSI; (3) the scientific community is not yet in a position to confidently establish whether the warming since 1850 is mostly human-caused, mostly natural, or some combination. Suggestions for how these scientific challenges might be resolved are offered.

via Science Matters

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September 26, 2024 at 10:03AM