Month: September 2024

Beware “Fact Checking” by Innuendo

Kip Hansen gives the game away in his Climate Realism article Illogically Facts —’Fact-Checking’ by Innuendo.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

The latest fad in all kinds of activism to attack one’s ideological opponents via “fact checking”.    We see this in politics and all the modern controversies, including, of course, Climate Science.

Almost none of the “fact checking sites” and “fact checking organizations” actually check facts.  And, if they accidentally find themselves checking what we would all agree is a fact, and not just an opinion or point of view, invariably it is checked against an contrary opinion, a different point of view or an alternative fact.

The resulting fact check report depends on the purposes of the fact check.  Some are done to confirm that “our guy” or “our team” is proved to be correct, or that the opposition is proved to be wrong, lying or misinformation.  When a fact is found to be different in any way from the desired fact, even the tiniest way, the original being checked is labelled a falsehood, or worse, an intentional lie. (or conversely, other people are lying about our fact!).   Nobody likes a liar, so this sort of fake fact checking accomplishes two goals – it casts doubt on the not-favored fact supposedly being checked and smears an ideological opponent as a liar.  One stone – two birds.

While not entirely new on the fact-checking scene, an AI-enhanced effort has popped to the surface of the roiling seas of controversyLogically Facts.  “Logically Facts is part of Meta’s Third Party Fact-Checking Program (3PFC) and works with TikTok in Europe. We have been a verified signatory of the International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN) since 2020 and are a member of the Misinformation Combat Alliance (MCA) in India and the European Digital Media Observatory (EDMO) in Europe.”source ]   Meta? “Meta Platforms…is the undisputed leader in social media. The technology company owns three of the four biggest platforms by monthly active users (Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram).” “Meta’s social networks are known as its Family of Apps (FoA). As of the fourth quarter of 2023, they attracted almost four billion users per month.”   And TikTok?  It has over a billion users.

I’m doubting that one can add up the 4 billion and the 1 billion to make 5 billion users of META and TikTok combined, but in any case, that’s a huge percentage of humanity any way one looks at it.

And who is providing fact-checking to those billion of people?  Logically Facts [LF].

And what kind of fact-checking does LF do?  Let’s look at an example that will deal with something very familiar with readers here:  Climate Science Denial.

The definition put forward by the Wiki is:

Climate change denial (also global warming denial) is a form of science denial characterized by rejecting, refusing to acknowledge, disputing, or fighting the scientific consensus on climate change.”

Other popular definitions of climate change denial include: attacks on solutions, questioning official climate change science and/or the climate movement itself.

If I had all the time left to me in this world, I could do a deep, deep dive into the Fact-Checking Industry.  But, being limited, let’s look, together, at one single “analysis” article from Logically Facts:

‘Pseudoscience, no crisis’: How fake experts are fueling climate change denial

This article is a fascinating study in “fake-fact-checking by innuendo”. 

As we go through the article, sampling its claims, I’ll alert you to any check of an actual fact – don’t hold your breath.   If you wish to be pro-active, read the LF piece first, and you’ll have a better handle on what they are doing.

The lede in their piece is this:

“Would you seek dental advice from an ophthalmologist? The answer is obvious. Yet, on social media, self-proclaimed ‘experts’ with little to no relevant knowledge of climate science are influencing public opinion.” 

The two editors of this “analysis” are listed as Shreyashi Roy [MA in Mass Communications and a BA in English Literature] and Nitish Rampal [ … based out of New Delhi and has …. a keen interest in sports, politics, and tech.]  The author is said to be [more on “said to be” in a minute…] Anurag Baruah [MA in English Language and a certificate in Environmental Journalism: Storytelling earned online from the Thompson Founation.]

Why do you say “said to be”, Mr. Hansen?  If you had read the LF piece, as I suggested, you would see that it reads as if it was “written” by an AI Large Language Model, followed by editing for sense and sensibility by a human, probably, Mr. Baruah, followed by further editing by Roy and Rampal.

The lede is itself an illogic.  First it speaks of medical/dental advice, pointing out, quite rightly, that they are different specializations.  But then complains that unnamed so-called self-proclaimed experts who LF claims “have little to no relevant knowledge of climate science” are influencing public opinion.   Since these persons are so-far unnamed, LF’s AI, author and subsequent editors could not possibly know what their level of knowledge about climate science might be.

Who exactly are they smearing here?

The first is:

“One such ‘expert,’ Steve Milloy, a prominent voice on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), described a NASA Climate post (archive) about the impact of climate change on our seas as a “lie” on June 26, 2024.”

It is absolutely true that Milloy, who is well-known to be an “in-your-face” and “slightly over the-top” critic of all things science that he considers poorly done, being over-hyped, or otherwise falling into his category of “Junk Science”, posted on X the item claimed. 

LF , its AI, author and editors make no effort to check what fact/facts
Milloy was calling a lie, or to check NASA’s facts in any way whatever.

You see, Milloy calling any claim from NASA “a lie” would be an a priori case of Climate Denial: he is refuting or refusing to accept some point of official climate science.

Who is Steve Milloy? 

Steve Milloy is a Board Member & Senior Policy Fellow of the Energy and Environment Legal Instituteauthor of seven books and over 600 articles/columns published in major newspapers, magazines and internet outlets.  He has testified by request before the U.S. Congress many times, including on risk assessment and Superfund issues.  He is an Adjunct Fellow of the National Center for Public Policy Research.

“He holds a B.A. in Natural Sciences, Johns Hopkins University; Master of Health Sciences (Biostatistics), Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health; Juris Doctorate, University of Baltimore; and Master of Laws (Securities regulation) from the Georgetown University Law Center.”

It seems that many consider Mr. Milloy to be an expert in many things.

And the evidence for LF’s dismissal of Milloy as a “self-proclaimed expert”  having “little to no relevant knowledge of climate science”?  The Guardian, co-founder of the climate crisis propaganda outfit Covering Climate Nowsaid “JunkScience.com, has been called “the main entrepôt for almost every kind of climate-change denial”” and after a link listing Milloy’s degrees, pooh-poohed him for “lacking formal training in climate science.”  Well, a BA in Natural Sciences might count for something. And a law degree is not nothing. The last link which gives clear evidence that Milloy is a well-recognized expert and it is obvious that the LF AI, author, and editors either did not read the contents of the link or simply chose to ignore it.

Incredibly, LF’s next target is “… John Clauser, a 2022 Nobel Prize winner in physics, claimed that no climate crisis exists and that climate science is “pseudoscience.” Clauser’s Nobel Prize lent weight to his statements, but he has never published a peer-reviewed paper on climate change.“

LF’s evidence against Clauser is The Washington Post in an article attacking not just Clauser, but a long list of major physicists who do not support the IPCC consensus on climate change:  Willie Soon (including the lie that Soon’s work was financed by fossil fuel companies) , Steve Koonin, Dick Lindzen and Will Happer.   The Post article fails to discuss any of the reasons these esteemed, world-class physicists are not consensus-supporting club members. 

Their non-conforming is their crime.  No facts are checked.

LF reinforces the attack on world-renown physicists with a quote from Professor Bill McGuire:  “Such fake experts are dangerous and, in my opinion, incredibly irresponsible—Nobel Prize or not. A physicist denying anthropogenic climate change is actually denying the well-established physical properties of carbon dioxide, which is simply absurd.”

McGuire, is not a physicist and is not a climate scientist, but has a PhD in Geology and is a volcanologist and an IPCC contributor.   He also could be seen as “lacking formal training in climate science.”

But, McGuire has a point, which LF, its AI and its human editors seem to miss, the very basis of the CO2 Global Warming hypothesis is based on physics, not based on what is today called “climate science”. Thus, the physicists are the true experts . (and not the volcanologists….)

LF then launches into the gratuitous comparison of “fake experts” in the anti-tobacco fight, alludes to oil industry ties, and then snaps right to John Cook.

John Cook, a world leader in attacking Climate Change Denial, is not a climate scientist.  He is not a geologist, not an atmospheric scientist, not an oceanic scientist, not a physicist, not even a volcanologist.   He  “earned his PhD in Cognitive Science at the University of Western Australia in 2016”.

The rest of the Logically Facts fake-analysis is basically a re-writing of some of Cook’s anti-Climate Denialists screeds.  Maybe/probably resulting from an AI large language model trained on pro-consensus climate materials.  Logically Facts is specifically and openly an AI-based effort.

LF proceeds to attack a series of persons, not their ideas, one after another:  Tony Heller, Dr. Judith Curry, Patrick Moore and Bjørn Lomborg.

The expertise of these individuals in their respective fields
are either ignored or brushed over.

Curry is a world renowned climate scientist, former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.  Curry is the author the book on Thermodynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, another book on Thermodynamics, Kinetics, and Microphysics of Clouds, and the marvelous groundbreaking Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response.  Google scholar returns over 10,000 references to a search of “Dr. Judith Curry climate”.

Lomborg is a socio-economist with an impressive record, a best selling author and a leading expert on issues of energy dependence, value for money spent on international anti-poverty and public health efforts, etc.   Richard Tol, is mention negatively for daring to doubt the “97% consensus”, with no mention of his qualifications as a Professor of Economics and a Professor of the Economics of Climate Change.

Bottom Line:

Logically Facts is a Large Language Model-type AI, supplemented by writers and editors meant to clean-up the mess returned by this chat-bot type AI.    Thus, it is entirely incapable to making any value judgements between repeated slander, enforced consensus views, the prevailing biases of scientific fields and actual facts.  Further, any LLM-based AI is incapable of Critical Thinking and drawing logical conclusions.

In short, Logically Facts is Illogical.

Defence offered by Facebook in Stossal defamation lawsuit.

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September 16, 2024 at 07:23PM

New Study: 21st Century Megadrought In The SW USA Caused By 45 Years Of East/Central Pacific Cooling

Climate models failed to simulate the observed 1970-2014 Pacific Ocean cooling. The 21st century southwestern US megadrought has been linked to this cooling, which “may have been caused by a forced response to greenhouse gas emissions.”

A new study provides a fresh look at the circular, self-contradictory reasoning that proponents of the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) narrative routinely employ.

The authors acknowledge that the Central and East Pacific region has been cooling since 1970, and that climate models failed to simulate this cooling. The modeling failure stems from the assumption that rising greenhouse gas emissions lead to warming, not over four decades of cooling.

“While AO-GCMs [climate models] predicted a warming SST trend in the Central and East Pacific, the region instead experienced a cooling SST trend from 1970 to 2014…”

After insisting that “internal atmospheric variability has a larger role than SST forcing in explaining SWUS [Southwestern United States] precipitation variance,” and that “most historical droughts are unrelated to SST [sea surface temperature] forcing,” the authors nonetheless pivot, explaining that only during recent decades is the SWUS megadrought causally linked to SST forcing.

“In this study, we confirmed the connection between the Equatorial Pacific SST trend pattern and SWUS precipitation trends with Green’s function approach, which allows us to establish a causal link between SST and precipitation.”

But the SST forcing that suddenly explains recent SWUS drought trends (after not explaining these trends historically) is not the sign expected with rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. No, drought has not been caused by warmer SSTs, but cooler SSTs. They say warmer SSTs will lead to a wetter climate, or less drought.

“…a cooling SST trend from 1970 to 2014…which potentially led to the observed megadrought in the SWUS due to a decrease in precipitation.”

“If the Central and East Pacific continue cooling, a prolonged period of drought is more likely to continue in the SWUS.”

However, in the future, warmer East and Central Pacific SSTs due to rising GHGs are expected (according to modeling) to cause less precipitation, or more SWUS drought. So over 40 years of cooling explains drought now, but sometime in the future warming will explain drought…even though neither warming or cooling SSTs explained SWUS drought historically.

“At least part of the megadrought was related to a lack of precipitation from the cooling Central and East Pacific, rather than due to a significant increase in evapotranspiration from global warming, which will likely cause droughts in the future as anthropogenic climate change worsens.”

But it’s worse than we thought. The authors assert the cooling SSTs causally linked to the 1970s-to-present SWUS megadrought – but that may not be the cause of drought in the future – may be explained by – yes, indeed – rising GHG concentrations. GHG forcing leads to warming SSTs – which, again, may not cause drought now, but may in the future. And yet the recent decades of cooling SSTs may be a response to the rising GHGs too. Rising GHG concentrations may simultaneously cause warming SSTs and cooling SSTs.

“The cooling of the Central and East Pacific not simulated by AO-GCMs [climate models] may have been caused by a forced response to greenhouse gas emissions.”

So let’s review what the authors found with a “Plain Language Summary” of own.

Until recent decades, internal atmospheric variability explained historical trends in drought. Warming or cooling SST trends did not. Then, in recent decades, a cooling SST trend (1970-2014) has been “confirmed” as the causal link to the SWUS megadrought. In the future, however, warming SSTs may cause SWUS megadrought. And both the warming and cooling trends in the SWUS are (and have been) caused by the same mechanism: rising GHGs.

It would appear the modern version of what constitutes peer-reviewed “climate science” has devolved into something resembling more of a creative writing exercise than actual science.

Image Source: Alessi and Rugenstein, 2024

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September 16, 2024 at 05:16PM

Diving the North Wall, Myrmidon Reef, Part 4. Inaugural Megafauna Expedition, September 2024 

I am yet to dive the North Wall at Myrmidon.  As part of the team onboard the MV Sea Esta I was deck hand, even holding Laura Boderke’s underwater camera, as she waited.  Leaning backwards from a rail at the back of the boat, waiting for First Mate Robert to yell the instruction, ‘Go. Go. Go’.  As the Skipper cut the engine, I passed the camera across, Laura simultaneously fell backwards into the big swell – into the South Pacific Ocean, on the outside edge of Myrmidon Reef that is beyond the Great Barrier Reef proper.

Down. Down. Down they went – Laura, with her scuba buddy Sebastian Falk and Stuart Ireland with his scuba buddy David Armstrong.

So much thanks to Stuart for all the photographs – so we can know what they saw.  He is a truly awesome underwater photographer and cinematographer.  And as greedy as a boy in a sweet shop with a mouth full of milk bottles he has posted so many of these magnificent photographs across at his Facebook page, ‘tis here: https://www.facebook.com/stuireland

Meanwhile I would like to organise an exhibition of the best photographs from our four days at sea – from the inaugural Megafauna Expedition to the still magnificent Great Barrier Reef.   It was not all walls of little corals in soft colours.  There are the monster corals – the single colony of the Porites spp. in the back lagoon at Myrmidon more than three metres across; and of course, the clams saved by the Royal Australian Navy thirty years ago and now all grown up; and I am yet to show a photograph or write a single line about the Yongala – where five of the nine winning photographs were taken and 122 people perished more than 100 years ago.

And there will be a documentary.

Charter of the MV Sea Esta was made possible by Sydney-based philanthropist Simon Fenwick.  Special thanks to owner of Adrenalin Dive and skipper of the MV Sea Esta, Paul Crocombe.   Next time it will be Simon, Paul and I diving the North Wall.

Stuart captured in a photograph by Laura, blowing bubbles, as Dave and Seb safety stop.

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September 16, 2024 at 04:45PM

GROANER of the Week: Climate change-triggered landslide unleashes a 650-foot mega-tsunami

From the “anything and everything is caused by climate change” department comes this groaner of a press release from UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Some points:

1. Glaciers, melt, calve, and make local tsunamis. It’s what they do and have been doing for millennia. Same for rockslides. Nothing new here. No climate change needed.
2. Seismic waves from glacier calving are nothing new, in fact in Antarctic they happen “all the time” according to the University of Leeds. At best, this is a novelty because the signal lasted nine days.
3. The “mega-Tsunami” and seiche (with continued seismic waves) only occurred because the narrow fiord meant the kinetic energy had no place to go. If it were calving to the open ocean, it would have just been another normal blip on the seismic radar and likely not noticed at all.
4. Reading the press release, it is easy to spot where the story has been embellished to make it more drama and less science. Sheesh.
5. The IPCC says there’s no connection between landslides and climate change at all saying in their most recent scientific assessment that they could not find any emerging signal linking climate change to landslides, nor do they anticipate any emergence in the future.

Below is Table 12.12 from  Page 90 – Chapter 12 of the UN IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Emergence of Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs) in time periods. The color corresponds to the confidence of the region with the highest confidence: white colors indicate where evidence of a climate change signal is lacking or the signal is not present, leading to overall low confidence of an emerging signal.

Have a look at the before (left) and after (right) photos below provided in the press release.

This affects nobody. Just another doom-mongering headline grabber for the ignorant press. The only thing true in the press release is the detection of the seismic ringing signal for nine days. The remainder is pure speculation.


Climate change-triggered landslide unleashes a 650-foot mega-tsunami

Wave created a seismic signal that lasted for nine days Peer-Reviewed Publication

University of California – San Diego

'Before' image of landslide site
image: ‘Before’ image of landslide site taken on Aug. 12, 2023 view more Credit: Søren Rysgaard

In September 2023, scientists around the world detected a mysterious seismic signal that lasted for nine straight days. An international team of scientists, including seismologists Alice Gabriel and Carl Ebeling of UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography came together to solve the mystery.

A new study published today in Science provides the stunning solution: In an East Greenland fjord, a mountaintop collapsed into the sea and triggered a mega-tsunami about 200 meters (650 feet) tall. The giant wave rocked back and forth inside the narrow fjord for nine days, generating the seismic waves that reverberated through Earth’s crust, baffling scientists around the world. This rhythmic sloshing is a phenomenon known as a seiche. Fortunately, no people were hurt, but the waves destroyed some $200,000 in infrastructure at an unoccupied research station on Ella Island.

“When we set out on this scientific adventure, everybody was puzzled and no one had the faintest idea what caused this signal,” said Kristian Svennevig, a geologist at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) and the study’s lead author. “All we knew was that it was somehow associated with the landslide. We only managed to solve this enigma through a huge interdisciplinary and international effort.”

Climate change set the stage for the landslide by melting the glacier at the base of the mountain, destabilizing the more than 25 million cubic meters (33 million cubic yards) of rock and ice – enough to fill 10,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools – that ultimately crashed into the sea. As climate change continues to melt Earth’s polar regions it could lead to an increase in large, destructive landslides such as this one.

“Climate change is shifting what is typical on Earth, and it can set unusual events into motion,” said Gabriel, whose work on this study was supported by the European Research Council, Horizon Europe, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and NASA.

When seismic monitoring networks first detected this signal in September 2023, it was puzzling for two main reasons. First, the signal looked nothing like the busy squiggle that earthquakes produce on seismographs. Instead, it oscillated with a 92-second-interval between its peaks, too slow for humans to perceive. Second, the signal stayed strong for days on end, where more common seismic events weaken more rapidly.

The global community of Earth scientists started buzzing with online discussion of what could be causing the strange seismic waves. The discussion turned up reports of a huge landslide in a remote Greenland fjord that occurred on Sept. 16, around the time the seismic signal was first detected.

To figure out if and how these two phenomena might be connected, the team, led by Kristian Svennevig of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, combined seismic recordings from around the world, field measurements, satellite imagery and computer simulations to reconstruct the extraordinary events.

The team, comprised of 68 scientists from 41 research institutions, analyzed satellite and on-the-ground imagery to document the enormous volume of rock and ice in the landslide that triggered the tsunami. They also analyzed the seismic waves to model the dynamics and trajectory of the rock-ice avalanche as it moved down the glacial gully and into the fjord.

To understand the tsunami and resulting seiche, the researchers used supercomputers to create high-resolution simulations of the events.

“It was a big challenge to do an accurate computer simulation of such a long-lasting, sloshing tsunami,” said Gabriel.

Ultimately, these simulations were able to closely match the real-world tsunami’s height as well as the long-lasting seiche’s slow oscillations.

By integrating these diverse data sources, the researchers determined that the nine-day seismic signal was caused by the massive landslide and resulting seiche within Greenland’s Dickson Fjord.

“It was exciting to be working on such a puzzling problem with an interdisciplinary and international team of scientists,” said Robert Anthony, a geophysicist with the United States Geological Survey’s Earthquake Hazards program and co-author of the study. “Ultimately, it took a plethora of geophysical observations and numerical modeling from researchers across many countries to put the puzzle together and get a complete picture of what had occurred.”

The study’s findings demonstrate the complex, cascading hazards posed by climate change in polar regions. While no people were in the area when the landslide and mega-tsunami occurred, the fjord is close to a route commonly used by cruise ships, highlighting the need to monitor polar regions as climate change accelerates. For example, a landslide in western Greenland’s Karrat Fjord in 2017 triggered a tsunami that flooded the village of Nuugaatsiaq, destroying 11 houses and killing four people.

Gabriel said the results could also inspire researchers to comb back through the seismic record to look for similar events now that scientists know what to look for. Finding more seiches could help more clearly define the conditions that give rise to the phenomenon.

“This shows there is stuff out there that we still don’t understand and haven’t seen before,” said Ebeling, who co-authored the study with support from NSF and helped manage a network of seismic sensors that detected the seiche’s vibrations. “The essence of science is trying to answer a question we don’t know the answer to – that’s why this was so exciting to work on.” 


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September 16, 2024 at 04:08PM