This article is headed: ‘Most climate scientists foresee temperature rise exceeding Paris Agreement targets, study finds’. Publishing a study about what people – IPCC scientists in this instance – foresee seems an odd concept, but it serves as another excuse to promote catastrophism, which is probably the main point of it in the run-up to COP29.
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A new survey of climate experts reveals that a majority believe the Earth to be headed for a rise in global temperatures far higher than the 2015 Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 to well-below 2°C, says Phys.org.
The study was published in Communications Earth & Environment. It also shows that two-thirds of respondents—all of them authors on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—believe we may succeed in achieving net zero CO2 emissions during the second half of this century.
This indicates some optimism that mitigation efforts may be starting to bend the emissions curve toward what would be needed to achieve the Paris temperature goal.
A majority also acknowledged the potential for atmospheric CO2 removal, with a median response indicating a belief that the technology could remove up to five gigatons of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) a year by 2050. That is at the lower end of the range believed to be necessary to meet the Paris targets.
“We wanted to survey some of the top climate experts in the world to get some insight into their perceptions of different future climate outcomes,” says the paper’s lead author, Seth Wynes, a former postdoctoral fellow at Concordia, now an assistant professor at the University of Waterloo.
“These scientists also engage in important climate change communication, so their optimism or pessimism can affect how decisionmakers are receiving messages about climate change.”
More is needed to avert catastrophe
The 211 respondents to the survey were generally pessimistic about reaching the Paris targets given current policies, with 86% estimating warming above 2˚C by 2100. The median estimate was 2.7˚C, which is expected to have catastrophic consequences for the planet.
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
October 2, 2024 at 03:41AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 