Does anyone seriously think any of these demands will be met? They’ve all been made before and the CO2 graph continues its steady rise, while assorted predictions of climate mayhem fail to show up. Some nations have swallowed the net zero dogma but many more haven’t, making increasing use of coal, gas and oil to grow their economies. The steady drip-drip of UN-led alarmism isn’t going to deter them.
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Nations must collectively commit to cutting 42% off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), says UNEP (via Phys.org)—and back this up with rapid action—or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years, according to a new UN Environment Program (UNEP) report.
Updated NDCs are to be submitted early next year ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil. UNEP’s “Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!” finds that a failure to increase ambition in these new NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6°C–3.1°C over the course of this century.
This would bring debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies.
The 2.6°C scenario is based on the full implementation of current unconditional and conditional NDCs. Implementing only current unconditional NDCs would lead to 2.8°C of warming.
Continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming. Under these scenarios—which all operate on a probability of over 66%—temperatures would continue to rise into the next century.
Adding additional net-zero pledges to full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs could limit global warming to 1.9°C, but there is currently low confidence in the implementation of these net-zero pledges.
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The report also looks at what it would take to get on track to limiting global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28% by 2030 and 37% from 2019 levels by 2035—the new milestone year to be included in the next NDCs.
“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before—starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges—or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead and well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.
“I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now, set the stage for stronger NDCs, and then go all-out to get on a 1.5°C pathway.
“Even if the world overshoots 1.5°C—and the chances of this happening are increasing every day—we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot.”
The consequences of delayed action are also highlighted by the report.
Full article here.
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Image: Thermometer with Fahrenheit and Celsius units [credit: Stilfehler at Wikipedia]
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
October 27, 2024 at 03:39AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 