Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

NOAA’s projections about the year 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane season are shown below.

We are now through the June to October part of the 2024 season with only November remaining which has a history of far fewer hurricane and tropical storm monthly occurrences. 

NOAA projected that there would be an 85% chance of an “above normal” year (most people would say “above average”, but we live in the government driven climate alarmism propaganda era) with between 17 and 25 named storms occurring.

Colorado State University North Atlantic statistical data (shown below) developed from NHC “operational best tracks” indicates 15 named storms have occurred to date with only the weaker tail end of the hurricane season ahead in the month of November.

Compared to NOAA’s 85% projected chance of 17 to 25 named storms occurring we have yet to experience the lowest number of 17 let alone the highest number of 25.

The data shows a total of 10 hurricanes have occurred which is at the lower end of the NOAA projection range of 8 to 13 such storms with 4 of those in the major hurricane category which is at the very low end of the 4 to 7 NOAA projection range.

The total year to date year 2024 North Atlantic region ACE of 145.3 is above the long-term historical average ACE of 122.5 as shown below.

Comparing the year 2024 to date North Atlantic Hurricane ACE and hurricane outcomes with other years going back to 1851 (found here) we note the following results recognizing that the lower activity month of November results remain for the year 2024.

The 2024 Hurricane total ACE at end October 2024 is 145.3 with a total of 10 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes and 15 total named storms.

The years 2021 and 2023 achieved comparable North Atlantic ACE values as occurred in 2024 of 145.7 and 145.6 respectively with a total of 7 and 7 hurricanes, 4 and 3 major hurricanes and 21 and 20 named storms respectively.

There are 23 years since 1851 where the North Atlantic total hurricane ACE exceeded 150 (greater than the present year 2024 ACE value of 145.3) starting in year 1878 and ending in year 2020.

Of these 23 years 15 exceeded the year 2024 major hurricane outcome of 4 such storms. These 15 major hurricane years include major hurricane occurrences of 5, 6 and 7 major hurricane outcomes compared to year 2024 with 4 major hurricanes. These higher major hurricane year occurrences range from years 1893 to year 2020. 

The record highest North Atlantic Season total ACE was in year 1933 at 258.6 with that year experiencing 6 major hurricanes resulting in that year’s ACE being 56% greater than occurred in year 2024 and 78% greater than the long term North Atlantic historical average ACE. 

The Year 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane season was not particularly unique and was clearly far from being any kind of “record year” as assessed through the metrics used to evaluate and compare hurricane year outcomes.

The year 2024 Major Hurricane Helene flooding caused in Asheville, North Carolina (with that area falsely claimed as being a “climate haven” by climate extremists) that was so over hyped by climate alarmists had also been severely flooded in 1916 by Major Hurricane Number 4.

The 1916 North Atlantic hurricane season (found here) had an ACE value of 144 (compared to 145.3 for year 2024), 15 named storms (compared to 15 named storms in year 2024), 10 hurricanes (compared to 10 hurricanes in year 2024) and 5 major hurricanes (compared to 4 major hurricanes in year 2024) was basically a 108-year-old “twin” of the year 2024 hurricane season metrics.        

But the real and extraordinary story about the year 2024 hurricane season year is the glaring reality that this year’s season is well below “normal” throughout the Global Northern Hemisphere.

This huge reality is simply hidden and ignored by the climate extremists and their clueless media that base their hype on only the North Atlantic season which accounts for just 21% of the total Northern Hemisphere historical season average ACE outcomes.

Provided below are data showing the year 2024 to date  ACE values for the Northeast Pacific and Northwest Pacific regions which account for 74% of the Global Northern Hemisphere historical season average ACE outcomes.

Also shown below is the year 2024 Northern Hemisphere ACE outcome to date clearly demonstrating the far below “normal” outcomes (only 73% of the historical average ACE) across the globe.   

It is unfortunate and pathetic that the climate extremist media works so hard concealing the clear picture provided by measured climate science data which demonstrate that the world is not facing a climate emergency.