All change for climate and energy policy again in the US as Trump declares victory in the Presidential election. A severe downgrade for government alarmism and linked policies looks inevitable.
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Former President Trump has promised to take the US out of the Paris climate agreement – as he did briefly during his first term in office – and is also reported to be under pressure to pull the US out of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the first time if he becomes president, says Climate Home News.
While leaving the Paris Agreement would be legally straightforward, legal experts are divided on whether Trump could withdraw the US from the UNFCCC without the approval of the US Senate and – if he did – how easy it would be for a future president to re-join.
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Exiting the Paris pact
The Trump campaign has promised to take the US out of the Paris climate agreement if he wins, joining just three other countries outside the landmark climate deal: Iran, Libya and Yemen.
During Trump’s last term in office, the climate-change sceptic managed to yank the US out only briefly – for less than four months. [Talkshop comment – due to Paris Agreement rules, see full article].
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If elected again, this time around Trump would be able to file to quit the Paris Agreement on his first day in office and the US would leave a year later. This would mean the world’s second biggest-emitting country would no longer have to submit a national climate action plan to the United Nations every five years.
As all countries are supposed to publish an updated plan next year, however – before the US under Trump could officially leave – Washington would still be expected to submit one.
Any plan submitted by a Trump administration is likely to be far weaker than one from a Democrat-led government though – and that weakening could be contagious, particularly with regard to geopolitical rival China, the world’s biggest carbon polluter [sic]. [Talkshop comment – carbon dioxide is a vital gas for nature].
UNFCCC case uncertain
Trump could go even further though in cutting ties with the UN climate process. While the Trump campaign has not clarified its position, both Politico and Bloomberg reported that lobbyists have drafted executive orders they hope to get Trump to sign which would pull the US out of both the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The UNFCCC is the founding treaty of the UN climate talks, under which the Paris Agreement was negotiated. It was agreed at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 and includes all countries – even the three that have not ratified the Paris pact.
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UNFCCC budget squeeze
If Trump does pull the US out, Stockholm Environment Institute researcher Richard Klein said that “one of the most direct effects will be on the UNFCCC’s budget”.
The US currently contributes about a fifth of the Bonn-based organisation’s budget. It is already low on funds this year, forcing it to make cut-backs while taking on ever-greater responsibilities in the world’s effort to tackle climate change. With the US out, China would become the UNFCCC’s biggest funder.
A US exit would also change COP climate summits. COP stands for “Conference of the Parties” to the UNFCCC – and if the US left only the Paris Agreement, it would still be a party to the UNFCCC.
But if it left the UNFCCC, it would no longer be a party and become just an observer – the same category as business lobbyists and climate campaigners.
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
November 6, 2024 at 03:24AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 