A little over three years ago I posted a brief follow up to Oil is Dead, Long Live Oil. It had the title “The Answer My Friend Ain’t Blowing in the Wind”. In view of the recent (and ongoing) dunkelflaute, it struck me as an opportune time to update it with a “Part 2”.

Yesterday the BBC website asked “Why has the UK weather been so gloomy lately?” Clicking on the link produces a new headline with the explanation: “Dreary weather in the UK blamed on anticyclonic gloom”. It goes on to tell us:

Is the weather getting you down? You are not alone. Mist, fog, low cloud and a distinct lack of sunshine seems to be the norm so far this month.

It is mild for the time of year but it has typically been dull, grey and misty…

…High pressure, or an anticyclone, is currently influencing our weather.

Such areas of high pressure block rain-bearing fronts and often mean extended dry periods. In the summer this often leads to warm, dry and sunny days with light winds. In autumn and winter, while sunny, clearer days are possible, high pressure can also result in “anticyclonic gloom”.

This is when high pressure traps an area of moisture close to the surface of the Earth. The moisture forms low cloud, mist and fog, which then cannot lift and clear as the winds are so light and the sunshine at this time of year is so weak.

As the high persists, the low cloud continues to feed itself by re-thickening overnight as temperatures drop and moisture condenses.

…Some parts of the country recorded no sunshine at all during the first week of November. ….change is still a long way off….

The Guardian (it and the BBC always seem to be in lockstep) also produced an article (“‘Anticyclonic gloom’ blamed as English village sees no sunshine since October – UK has had average of just three hours of sun over past week, but skies should start to clear from Sunday”) on the subject, studiously (just like the BBC) avoiding the term dunkelflaute (and its implications for energy policy) and also choosing the term “anticyclonic gloom” instead.

I imagine that tells Cliscep readers nothing new. What those articles don’t mention to BBC and Guardian readers is the implication that this has for UK energy policy, especially in the week that NESO has produced a report which Mr Miliband claims vindicates his plan for a decarbonised grid by 2030, but which many thinking people recognise is actually a damning indictment of this policy’s folly. Nowhere does the BBC or Guardian reports advise readers that sunless windless days mean that renewable energy sources (wind and sun) produce only a tiny proportion of their nameplate capacity.

For much of this week gas has been providing more than 60% of the UK’s electricity needs, and because the dunkelflaute has extended to much of western Europe as well as to the UK, input from the interconnectors has been variable and often minimal. As I began writing, at 7.20pm on Friday 8^th November) I see from the excellent iamkate website that gas was then producing 53.8% of our electricity needs in the UK, solar was obviously producing nothing, but wind had finally stepped up to supply 11.2%, and interconnectors were doing better than they have for much of the week, supplying a net 11.7% (the gross figure was higher, but we were also supplying Ireland with some electricity). It’s gratifying to see that the interconnectors are finally helping, but the downside is that we are probably paying a hefty price for this help.

At that specific point, the price was £126.66 per MWh. This compares with an average price for the past week of £95.73 per MWh, which in turn is much higher than the average price over the last year of £68.72 per MWh.

While the EurAsia Daily website’s English may not be perfect to those who have English as a first language, it’s good enough to enable readers to understand that the problem isn’t confined to the UK:

There was no wind in Europe and electricity prices soared. The shutdown of wind farms had to be compensated by gas generation. In Germany, prices during peak hours increased by 8 times. Experts believe that this is a wake-up call for the region.

If on Sunday the maximum price for wholesale electricity in Germany during peak hours was no more than 128 euros per MWh, then on Wednesday, November 6, it already reached 805-820 euros per MWh. That’s how much wholesale electricity cost from 18.00 to 20.00, according to the NordPool exchange.

The maximum prices have become record since the peak of the energy crisis in 2022. And the reason was the windlessness. This period is called Dunkelflaute, when static high-pressure systems cause weaker than usual winds. According to the Institute of Solar Energy Systems. According to Fraunhofer, the share of wind generation in Germany has fallen from an annual average of 32% to almost zero. Wind turbines operate at only 7% of their capacity.

The problem, of course, is that if an anticyclone settles over western Europe and the UK, then the oft-repeated claim that it’s always windy somewhere is proved to be false. At this time of year, and through the winter, when demand for electricity – in the UK and northern Europe at least – is greatest, then such limited sun as does appear may well be hidden behind clouds. If the whole of western Europe is watching its solar and wind farms producing next to nothing, then the interconnectors won’t help (save to the extent that perhaps the French might sell us some very expensive nuclear-generated electricity and the Norwegians might sell us some very expensive electricity generated by hydro power). None of this looks like energy security, nor does it look like the cheap energy that Mr Miliband promised the electorate.

Winter hasn’t got going yet. If there are more dunkelflautes, it could be a very expensive winter indeed. And there may well be more dunkelflautes:

An article published two days ago on the Recharge website claims:

Unexpected wind and solar droughts in countries that are increasingly dependent on renewables pose a threat to system reliability, said Chinese, Canadian and US academics in a paper published in Nature.

Researchers have previously highlighted the danger of almost weeklong periods of cloudy and calm conditions that could have a huge impact on a grid reliant on renewables…

…The researchers stressed the difference between variability, which can be managed with short-duration battery storage; and resource droughts, which require backup generation and long-duration energy storage to prevent blackouts.

Research has noted an increased frequency and severity of extreme climate and weather episodes, they said, some of which could lead to “long spells of low wind and solar energy generation.”

Will those in charge of things take any notice or will they plough on regardless with their ideologically-driven and logic-free policies? Sadly, my money is on the latter, but they can’t say they haven’t been warned – by Cliscep, by the weather, and by researchers.

Postscript

To give solar the benefit of the doubt, here’s an update on electricity generation in the UK at 2.45pm on Saturday 9^th November (when it continues to be cold, grey and still, at least where I live). Gas is still doing the heavy lifting (58.1%); wind remains lamentable (5.6%) and we might as well not bother with solar (2.1%). The interconnectors are supplying 12.1% but the price is currently £96.76 per MWh.