This has been sitting on my laptop for a week or two, so I thought I’d post it here. I may add more dates, whether inside the existing timeline or after it. If any Clisceppers know of anything I’ve missed, I would be grateful for an alert.
| Date | Event |
| 2011 | Phillip Hammond was Transport Sec when the original announcement of the end of sales of conventional cars by 2040 was made. (Can’t find the announcement; it was on 21st September 2011 that Hammond gave a speech in Japan, which described the £5,000 grant for plug-in vehicles.) |
| 26 July 2017 | Michael Gove announces the end of petrol and diesel car sales by 2040. BBC headline: “New diesel and petrol vehicles to be banned from 2040 in UK” |
| July 2017: Gov’t document: “UK plan for tackling roadside nitrogen dioxide concentrations” | The government has already taken significant action to improve air quality. The UK was the first country in the world to announce in 2011 our intention that conventional car and van sales would end by 2040, and for almost every car and van on the road to be a zero emission vehicle by 2050. Note the framing here: to reduce NO2 concentrations, not to avert climate change. |
| 11 September 2017 | BBC headline: “Volkswagen plans electric option for all models by 2030” VW will double investment in zero-emission vehicles to 20bn euros (£18bn) as it seeks to put the diesel emissions scandal behind it. … Speaking at the Frankfurt motor show, Volkswagen chief Matthias Mueller told the BBC the firm had “got the message”. “Customers want clean vehicles. People want to have clean air, and we want to make our contribution here,” he said. The German firm, whose brands include Seat and Skoda, also said it would place orders worth more than 50bn euros for batteries to power the cars. |
| 4 February 2020 | BBC headline: “How will the petrol and diesel car ban work?” The Committee on Climate Change believes the cost of electric cars will be similar to that of petrol or diesel vehicles by 2024-25. [Wrong. See some comparisons below.] |
| November 2020 Government document (Worth reading to behold the level of delusion that was, and still is, in the high minds of the mighty.) |
The Green Industrial Revolution: sale of ICE cars to be banned in 2030. In three years, the time horizon has been shortened by a decade. The announcement of the ten-point plan was made in the run-up to COP26. The PM was Boris Johnson, and the Business Secretary (and head honcho of COP26) was Alok Sharma. “From 2030 we will end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans, 10 years earlier than planned. However, we will allow the sale of hybrid cars and vans that can drive a significant distance with no carbon coming out of the tailpipe until 2035.“ It sounds as if cars would be allowed to continue being sold until 2035 unless they were producing soot, but that wasn’t the case. As a Freudian slip, I originally wrote “ten pint plan.” Which seems happy luck, as it is a perfect description of the GIR. |
| 20 September 2023 Sunak blinks. (Cliscep link, with full speech) | The ban on sales of ICE cars is pushed back to 2035. However, the small print says that the green juggernaut rolls on. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak: “People are already choosing electric vehicles to such an extent that we’re registering a new one every 60 seconds. But I also think that at least for now, it should be you the consumer that makes that choice, not government forcing you to do it.“ He omits to mention that the Zero Emission Vehicle mandate, with a sliding permitted quota of ICE vehicles each year from 2024, will shortly be announced. The allowable 2024 quota of ICEs will be 78% of sales. By 2030, it is 20%. Sunak might also have mentioned that most of the sales are to fleet buyers, and that by and large, private citizens are not interested. |
| 16 October 2023 Sunak blunk (Cliscep link.) | The Zero Emission Vehicle mandate is announced in the Commons by Transport Secretary Mark Harper. Harper: “…today we have laid another world-leading piece of legislation: the zero-emission vehicle mandate. Manufacturers will now meet minimum targets of clean car production, starting with 22% next year and reaching 80% by 2030.“ Other pithy phrases include “…manufacturers are on board. They will deliver a mandate that they helped shape…” I hope the manufacturers remember that, when they all go bust. |
| 4 December 2023 Hansard link. | The Commons votes on the ZEV order. The vote is carried 381 to 37. Telegraph: David Jones, a former Cabinet minister who voted against the measure, said it “completely negates” Mr Sunak’s pledge to delay net zero targets. He told The Telegraph: “[The vote] took everybody by surprise. We all assumed that there was going to be a more sensible and gradual transition to net zero, and this has completely undone that. |
| 4 July 2024 | Labour wins the General Election. Their manifesto commitment is to reinstate the 2030 cut-off for conventional vehicles. |
As noted, the CCC thought that there would be price parity between EVs and ICEs by 2024-5. Looking at Carwow today (24.xi.2024) that is not yet the case, despite manufacturers’ urgency to shift EVs.
Hyundai Kona from: £23,042
Hyundai Kona EV from: £31,958
Differential: about 39%
BMW 4 Series from: £40,754
BMW i4 from: £45,982
About 13% more.
Vauxhall Corsa: £17,487
Vauxhall Corsa Electric: £23,756
About 36% more.
[Go https://www.carwow.co.uk/ and add to the URL the name of your favourite manufacturer for a list of deals on all models.]
via Climate Scepticism
November 24, 2024 at 08:33AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 