The update on the Arctic sea-ice is a bit over time, the Actic sea-ice minimum occurred at the beginning of September of last year. Let’s start with an update of the volume data.

This is the data plotted without trendlines. The 2024 value is lower than the previous year and on par with 2019:

Let’s draw some trendlines. This is the linear trend which doesn’t fit that well, but is rather scary looking:

This is the cubic trend, which fits much more snugly:

Comparing it with the doom prediction of a 2015 iceless Arctic (which sparked my interest in the Arctic trend) clearly shows that something surely happened in the meanwhile:

Now the same for the extent data. The minimum value of 2024 is higher than the previous year, but just barely:

Here is the scary linear trend:

Also here, the cubic trend is fitting much better:

Finally a comparison with a death spiral scenario similar to that of the volume:

Although the Arctic sea-ice minimum extent as well as volume remain among the lowest, there is a trend break from the rapid decline between 2007 and 2012 that gave rise to a barrage of doom claims. The minimum extent as well as volume stay remarkably stable over the last eleven years.

via Trust, yet verify

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January 31, 2025 at 11:39AM