Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Encouraged by the reception of my previous post “Eight Ten-Thousandths Of A Degree Per Gigaton“, which ranged from warm acceptance through amused contempt to outright hostility, I’ve expanded my research to analyze the CO2 emissions of the late great State of California.

In my post linked above, I found that IF the IPCC is correct (which is a big “IF”), for each gigaton (Gt) of avoided CO2 emissions, there is an avoided global warming of 0.0008°C. Please read that post for the detailed calculations.

And utilizing that relationship, here are the past and projected future California CO2 emissions.

Figure 1. California historical and projected emissions, and the avoided warming we MIGHT get from the drop in emissions.

WOW! For all of our sacrifices here in California, for all the money we’ve spent and are projected to spend, we MIGHT cool the world twenty years from now by 0.006°C … be still, my beating heart …

Now, as to how much that has cost and will cost, the numbers are hard to come by. Here are some major costs:

• The California solar mandate is estimated to increase the cost of newly constructed single-family homes by approximately $8,400 each. There are ~ 60,000 new single-family homes built each year in California. That’s about half a billion dollars per year for the next 20 years until 2045, or $10 billion total.

• The “Renewable Mandates” and rooftop solar subsidies have made current California electricity about $0.15 per kWh more expensive than its neighbors. Average since 2004 is about $0.10 per kWh more expensive. California’s annual electricity consumption in 2023 was approximately 287,220,000,000 kWh. That’s a cost of $35 billion per year times 20 years (2025-2045) equals $700 billion, plus $29 billion times 20 years (2004-2024) gives a total of $1.3 TRILLION. And that’s with the totally unrealistic assumption of no increase in either consumption or electricity costs.

But hey, the Governor’s “green” pals are getting rich … however, I digress …

• Since the inception of California’s “Cap And Trade” program, it has generated ~ $5 billion in total revenue. The current cost of said climate indulgences is about $35 per ton. So if say half the upcoming emissions decreases will be due to the Cap and Trade system, that’s another $110 billion.

• The California ban on gas-powered appliances in new single-family homes goes into effect in 2030. It is estimated to increase the price of new homes by ~ $24,000. Sixty thousand new homes per year, times $24,000 per home, times fifteen years 2030-2045 gives a total cost of ~ $22 billion.

That’s a total of about $1.5 TRILLION dollars, and it doesn’t count the cost of other California CO2-related laws and regulations. The increase in electricity demand from electric houses and electric cars alone will be another huge cost. A trillion and a half hard-earned taxpayer dollars … and all of that to MAYBE reduce the temperature in 2045 by six-thousandths of one degree C.

Seriously. 0.006°C.

Meaningless. Unmeasurably small. Lost in the noise.

And please, don’t say that if only everyone did it, everything would be wonderful. At a cost of $1.5 terabucks for a reduction of 0.006°C, it would cost us OVER $250 TRILLION DOLLARS to perhaps maybe possibly reduce the 2045 temperature by one degree … madness.

Hopefully, this lunacy is subsiding, but I fear California will be the last to get the memo …

Best to all,

w.

PS—Most folks have no idea how huge a trillion dollars is.

Suppose we had a trillion dollars and we wasted a million dollars a day on climate starting today. In that case, we’d waste the last million around October 30th of the year 4762AD … surely we have better things on which to spend a million dollars a day for the next 27 centuries. For that amount, we could turn the world into paradise …

PPS—When you comment please quote the exact words you are referring to. Avoids many misunderstandings.