Not having a TV licence, my wife and I tend to browse the TV channels whenever we’re away for a few days on holiday, as we were last week in north east Wales. It’s usually a pointless exercise, as we never find anything we would like to watch (thus confirming us in our decision not to have a licence). Once more, last week, we didn’t find anything of interest to us, but while channel hopping we caught the end of Gardeners’ World, and heard Monty Don telling us that it’s great for gardeners that summer now lasts until October.

And yet, barely had we arrived home than the BBC website had a front page article with the heading “Leaves falling, berries ripe, but it’s hot. Is autumn coming early?” Not according to Monty Don, it ain’t, but is it? Well, the BBC article doesn’t exactly overwhelm its readers with science or data. Instead, as one commenter said, “[t]his isn’t news or even facts it is someone writing a column and then wheeling out people to support their views.” [By the way, the BBC opened the article up to a have your say, and the interest levels could scarcely be lower, with just 66 comments at the time of writing, and quite a few of them are the result of an ongoing disagreement between two people].

The article commences with a pretence that something newsworthy is going on:

It’s still hot in many parts of the UK, but some tree leaves are turning yellow and blackberries are so ripe in hedges that they’re tasting alcoholic.

Hmm. Some tree leaves are turning yellow in August – well, that’s nothing new. Blackberries are ripe. That’s nothing new, either. My wife and I usually go blackberry picking in August, and in some years we’re able to make a start in late July. In fact, just a week ago, we indulged in a spot of brambling, and it seemed to us that the blackberries were poorer than usual, and most of them were far from ripe – possibly as a result of it being a bit drier and warmer than usual, but the oppposite of the claims made by the BBC in this regard.

Next:

There is no formal definition of “early autumn” but experts say signs of the season, like leaves falling or apples being ready to pick, are actually nature becoming stressed by the long hot and dry summer.

The experts who say these things aren’t named, but my experience isn’t of apples being ready to pick any earlier than usual. I picked a few yesterday, but they’re still mostly small, and will probably reach maturity at about the same date as usual – at least where we live.

The BBC majors on this aspect of the story, which doesn’t match my own experience:

At the same time, classic autumn fruits like blackberries and apples – normally ready in September – are hanging off the branches.

Then they go on to qualify this: “…but scientists need more information to be certain about the long-term trend.” What else?

In Cardiff, Wanda O’Connor has grown melons outside for the first time since she started growing food six years ago. [Six years doesn’t signify anything, surely].

She shows me ripening limes and lemons inside her allotment greenhouse. “It’s 38-39C in here,” she says, pointing to a thermometer.

A Have Your Say commenter skewered this rather nicely:

The level of journalism is dismal. “Its 38 to 39 degrees in my greenhouse she says” Its a Greenhouse it WILL be hot as soon as the sun shines on it. My car showed 42 degrees but the actual temp was 31. Growing melons for the first time in 6 years is hardly an [sic] substantial sample.

We are referred to the Met Office report, “State of the UK Climate in 2024” to justify the claim that “Climate change is affecting the timings of biological events including spring and autumn…”. It’s as well that the BBC immediately qualified this claim by saying that “the level of change varies year-to-year.” Actually, the Met Office Report was much more nuanced than this simplistic claim. It says “However, such responses can be complex, and short observational records can make detecting trends difficult”, which to my mind indicates substantially greater uncertainty than the BBC would have its readers believe. Ironically too, the Met Office Report (which is about last year, remember, says “Bare tree dates were a few days earlier than the 1999–2023 baseline due to a slightly cooler than average summer and early autumn.” Yet the BBC tries to argue that autumn is arriving earlier this year for the opposite reasons to last year, namely a warmer and drier summer than the average. The BBC makes its point thus:

The UK has had 71% of the average rainfall for the season so far when it should be 79% by this date, according to the Met Office.

And we’ve had 89% of the average sunshine hours for summer. The Met Office says we would expect 79% by this point.

In my humble submission, these aren’t significant differences from the long-term average. As for the use of a phrase like “should be” in this context – oh dear.

The article asks: “But does it matter if autumn conditions come early?” That pre-supposes that autumn conditions have arrived early, and they haven’t where I live. For example, the BBC article includes this:

Bees are also showing signs of shutting down for the winter, after flowering plants finished producing pollen and nectar in the hot weather. That could leave bees without enough food.

Nope, not here. The bees have had a great spring and summer, and they’re still busy and active. The bee-keepers I have spoken to are very happy.

Inevitably, the Guardian waded in earlier today too: “Early ripening of berries in UK shows nature is under stress, say experts”. Given that it’s more of the same, I won’t go through it line by line. Suffice it to say, we are treated to more soundbites from Kathryn Brown, director of climate change and evidence at the Wildlife Trusts, who was heavily cited in the BBC piece. We are again directed to the UK Met Office’s State of the Climate Report. We are regaled with the same apocalyptic concerns.

What strikes me about this is that it isn’t a coincidence. It appears highly likely that there has been a press release, and that this is a concerted attempt to co-opt favoured media organisations (inevitably the BBC and the Guardian, though no doubt others too will be happy to cut and paste) into spreading the “climate crisis” message, based on little more than the urban heat island that is the south east of England.

There is a final irony here – namely this piece from the Wildlife Trusts’ blog as recently as a week ago. Apparently “The brambles are heavy with fruit this year – fat, dark twinkling jewels tucked away in the barbed tangles.” [Compare and contrast the Guardian’s claim that “some [UK brambles are] now bearing only shrivelled berries”]. Further, from the blog, in direct contradiction of the claims of early brambles becoming shrivelled already: “I’ve been watching these hedgerows for weeks, waiting for the fruit to ripen.” Finally, and most deliciously of all on the irony scale:

This year, the hedgerows have been generous. The toing and throwing between heatwaves and thunderous rainstorms created the perfect conditions for fruit to thrive. After a sparse summer last year, it’s a welcome boost.

In answer to the BBC’s question (“But does it matter if autumn conditions come early?”). No, it doesn’t. One year’s decent summer doesn’t matter. It’s weather, not climate. This year the summer weather has been a lot nicer than it was last year. Please let us enjoy it and stop trying to scare us to death.