Years of alarmist claims of the imminent end of Arctic summer sea ice have blown up big-time, so excuses have to be found. They claimed CO2 from human causes was the dominant driver of modern warming, while any other CO2 source was natural and OK. Their models predicted a relentless rise in temperatures, with Arctic sea ice the obvious evidence of the supposed climate problem. They still claim the Arctic is warming 4 times (or some other multiple) faster than the rest of the planet. Now they say: Natural climate variation is the most likely reason for the ‘slowdown’ as CO2 hasn’t declined, but it’s only a ‘temporary reprieve’. Twenty years and counting is a lot of ‘temporary’ non-effectiveness of their greenhouse gas ideas. Cognitive dissonance springs to mind.
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The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005, says The Guardian.
The finding is surprising, the researchers say, given that carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning have continued to rise and trap ever more heat over that time. [Talkshop comment – only surprising to those who thought CO2 was a dominant factor in climate].
They said natural variations in ocean currents that limit ice melting had probably balanced out the continuing rise in global temperatures.
However, they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some point in the next five to 10 years.
The findings do not mean Arctic sea ice is rebounding. Sea ice area in September, when it reaches its annual minimum, has halved since 1979, when satellite measurements began. [Talkshop comment – but it was rising for years before 1979, at the same time that CO2 was rising].
The climate crisis remains “unequivocally real”, the scientists said, and the need for urgent action to avoid the worst impacts remains unchanged.
The natural variation causing the slowdown is probably the multi-decadal fluctuations in currents in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which change the amount of warmed water flowing into the Arctic.
The Arctic is still expected to see ice-free conditions later in the century, harming people and wildlife in the region and boosting global heating by exposing the dark, heat-absorbing ocean. [Talkshop comment – why would people in the Arctic not want a bit more warmth?]
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
August 21, 2025 at 01:43PM
Iowa Climate Science Education 