Author: Iowa Climate Science Education

The Zero-Emissions Vehicle Mandate: a Timeline

This has been sitting on my laptop for a week or two, so I thought I’d post it here. I may add more dates, whether inside the existing timeline or after it. If any Clisceppers know of anything I’ve missed, I would be grateful for an alert.

Date Event
2011 Phillip Hammond was Transport Sec when the original announcement of the end of sales of conventional cars by 2040 was made. (Can’t find the announcement; it was on 21st September 2011 that Hammond gave a speech in Japan, which described the £5,000 grant for plug-in vehicles.)
26 July 2017 Michael Gove announces the end of petrol and diesel car sales by 2040.
BBC headline: “New diesel and petrol vehicles to be banned from 2040 in UK”
July 2017: Gov’t document: “UK plan for tackling roadside nitrogen dioxide concentrations” The government has already taken significant action to improve air quality. The UK was the first country in the world to announce in 2011 our intention that conventional car and van sales would end by 2040, and for almost every car and van on the road to be a zero emission vehicle by 2050.
Note the framing here: to reduce NO2 concentrations, not to avert climate change.
11 September 2017 BBC headline: “Volkswagen plans electric option for all models by 2030”
VW will double investment in zero-emission vehicles to 20bn euros (£18bn) as it seeks to put the diesel emissions scandal behind it. … Speaking at the Frankfurt motor show, Volkswagen chief Matthias Mueller told the BBC the firm had “got the message”. “Customers want clean vehicles. People want to have clean air, and we want to make our contribution here,” he said. The German firm, whose brands include Seat and Skoda, also said it would place orders worth more than 50bn euros for batteries to power the cars.
4 February 2020 BBC headline: “How will the petrol and diesel car ban work?”
The Committee on Climate Change believes the cost of electric cars will be similar to that of petrol or diesel vehicles by 2024-25. [Wrong. See some comparisons below.]
November 2020 Government document
(Worth reading to behold the level of delusion that was, and still is, in the high minds of the mighty.)
The Green Industrial Revolution: sale of ICE cars to be banned in 2030.
In three years, the time horizon has been shortened by a decade. The announcement of the ten-point plan was made in the run-up to COP26. The PM was Boris Johnson, and the Business Secretary (and head honcho of COP26) was Alok Sharma.
“From 2030 we will end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans, 10 years earlier than planned. However, we will allow the sale of hybrid cars and vans that can drive a significant distance with no carbon coming out of the tailpipe until 2035.“
It sounds as if cars would be allowed to continue being sold until 2035 unless they were producing soot, but that wasn’t the case.
As a Freudian slip, I originally wrote “ten pint plan.” Which seems happy luck, as it is a perfect description of the GIR.
20 September 2023 Sunak blinks. (Cliscep link, with full speech) The ban on sales of ICE cars is pushed back to 2035. However, the small print says that the green juggernaut rolls on. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak:
“People are already choosing electric vehicles to such an extent that we’re registering a new one every 60 seconds. But I also think that at least for now, it should be you the consumer that makes that choice, not government forcing you to do it.“
He omits to mention that the Zero Emission Vehicle mandate, with a sliding permitted quota of ICE vehicles each year from 2024, will shortly be announced. The allowable 2024 quota of ICEs will be 78% of sales. By 2030, it is 20%. Sunak might also have mentioned that most of the sales are to fleet buyers, and that by and large, private citizens are not interested.
16 October 2023 Sunak blunk (Cliscep link.) The Zero Emission Vehicle mandate is announced in the Commons by Transport Secretary Mark Harper. Harper: “…today we have laid another world-leading piece of legislation: the zero-emission vehicle mandate. Manufacturers will now meet minimum targets of clean car production, starting with 22% next year and reaching 80% by 2030.“
Other pithy phrases include “…manufacturers are on board. They will deliver a mandate that they helped shape…”
I hope the manufacturers remember that, when they all go bust.
4 December 2023 Hansard link. The Commons votes on the ZEV order. The vote is carried 381 to 37. Telegraph: David Jones, a former Cabinet minister who voted against the measure, said it “completely negates” Mr Sunak’s pledge to delay net zero targets. He told The Telegraph: “[The vote] took everybody by surprise. We all assumed that there was going to be a more sensible and gradual transition to net zero, and this has completely undone that.
4 July 2024 Labour wins the General Election. Their manifesto commitment is to reinstate the 2030 cut-off for conventional vehicles.

As noted, the CCC thought that there would be price parity between EVs and ICEs by 2024-5. Looking at Carwow today (24.xi.2024) that is not yet the case, despite manufacturers’ urgency to shift EVs.

Hyundai Kona from: £23,042

Hyundai Kona EV from: £31,958

Differential: about 39%

BMW 4 Series from: £40,754

BMW i4 from: £45,982

About 13% more.

Vauxhall Corsa: £17,487

Vauxhall Corsa Electric: £23,756

About 36% more.

[Go https://www.carwow.co.uk/ and add to the URL the name of your favourite manufacturer for a list of deals on all models.]

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November 24, 2024 at 08:33AM

COP29: The Globalist Climate Grift Collides with Trump’s America First Renaissance

As COP29 wrapped up in Baku, it left behind a trail of broken promises, hollow platitudes, and a $300 billion-per-year climate finance pledge that’s already being treated like Monopoly money. For the attendees, this summit was supposed to be a turning point—a global kumbaya to double down on the Paris Agreement and guilt developed nations into more climate cash giveaways. Instead, they woke up to a rude reality: President Donald J. Trump is back, and he’s armed with a cabinet determined to shred the green bureaucratic utopia faster than Greta Thunberg can say, “How dare you?”

The $300 billion package to “help” developing nations has been hailed as a win—if you define a win as forcing Western taxpayers to underwrite wind farms in nations where electricity is still considered a luxury. Naturally, the recipients aren’t satisfied. They’re already calling it “woefully insufficient,” which roughly translates to, “Nice start—now double it, and maybe we’ll stop complaining.”

But the real story isn’t the faux climate unity in Baku; it’s the cataclysmic shift coming out of Washington, D.C. With Trump’s return, the U.S. is poised to leave the Paris Agreement (again), freeze out the global climate aristocracy, and make American energy great again.

The Paris Agreement: RIP (Again)

The Paris Agreement has always been an expensive farce, a symbolic gesture masquerading as a global solution. Its main purpose? To transfer wealth from productive nations to the politically corrupt under the guise of “climate justice.” Of course, China—the world’s largest emitter—sits pretty with vague promises and no actual obligations. Trump’s exit from this scam is as much common sense as it is a necessity.

Trump and his new team understand what the COP29 crowd can’t admit: The Paris Agreement was designed to shackle the U.S. economy while letting the real polluters off the hook. It’s nothing more than a glorified wealth redistribution scheme, and the American taxpayer is the mark.

Meet Trump’s Cabinet of Climate Wreckers

If COP29 delegates are sipping antacids with their organic, fair-trade coffee this morning, it’s because Trump’s cabinet picks read like a climate alarmist’s worst nightmare.

Doug Burgum: Secretary of the Interior

Burgum’s move to Interior promises a full-throttle return to energy dominance. Forget Biden’s endless federal land drilling moratoriums—Burgum is unlocking American resources faster than climate activists can chain themselves to a bulldozer. The Department of the Interior will no longer be a playground for environmental lawyers; it will become what it was always meant to be—a steward of American land for energy, jobs, and growth.

His first move? Opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling, where billions of barrels of oil lie under pristine tundra that activists think is too good for human use. Burgum isn’t here to hug trees—he’s here to power the nation.

Lee Zeldin: EPA Administrator

Trump’s pick of Zeldin to head the EPA is genius. A staunch critic of the administrative state, Zeldin knows that the EPA has been hijacked by ideologues who care more about regulating cow flatulence than addressing real environmental issues. Expect Zeldin to gut the EPA’s endless red tape, dismantle Biden’s climate executive orders, and end the absurd “waters of the United States” rule that treats mud puddles like the Mississippi River.

Zeldin isn’t here to make friends with European technocrats; he’s here to dismantle their favorite tool of economic sabotage. If COP30 delegates want to weep into their carbon-neutral cocktails, so be it. Zeldin has one message for them: “Regulate your own economy.”

Chris Wright: Fossil Fuels’ Fierce Defender

Chris Wright’s appointment as Secretary of Energy is a seismic shift in U.S. energy policy. An unapologetic champion of oil, gas, and nuclear power, Wright knows that the foundation of modern civilization isn’t powered by wishful thinking. Forget solar panels that sputter at night or wind turbines that freeze in the cold—Wright’s focus is on what works: affordable, reliable energy that powers America’s industries and homes.

His first order of business will be dismantling the subsidy gravy train for inefficient renewables, forcing wind and solar to compete on merit rather than handouts. Wright has made it clear: energy policy shouldn’t bankrupt Americans to chase unproven green dreams. Instead, he’ll double down on expanding domestic fossil fuel production, slashing regulations, and reviving nuclear energy to ensure a stable grid and energy independence.

Globally, Wright’s leadership signals that the U.S. is back in the energy game. LNG exports will surge, allies will be strengthened, and adversaries reliant on oil and gas leverage will lose their power. As the climate elite lament his appointment, Wright will be too busy making energy affordable, accessible, and undeniably American.

Ramifications: A Climate Cold War

The global climate aristocracy is in full meltdown mode. Trump’s America First resurgence will embolden other nations to reassess their commitments to the Paris Agreement. Why should Europe foot the bill for global decarbonization if the U.S. isn’t playing along? China and India, of course, will continue building coal plants while pretending to care. The entire climate house of cards is about to collapse under its own contradictions.

Domestically, Americans will see an energy renaissance. Expect gas prices to plummet as drilling returns to full force. The war on natural gas? Over. The assault on coal? Done. Nuclear power? Back in the game. The result: jobs, growth, and cheaper energy for everyday Americans. Meanwhile, climate elites will find themselves increasingly ignored.

COP29: A Comedy of Errors

Let’s take a moment to appreciate the absurdity of COP29 itself. Delegates from 196 nations spent two weeks lecturing the world on carbon footprints while chartering private jets, dining on caviar, and pushing “solutions” that enrich themselves at everyone else’s expense. They even celebrated a global carbon credit market that’s destined to become the Enron of environmentalism.

And then, just as they were finalizing their grandiose agreements, Trump announced his cabinet picks. It’s almost poetic. The timing couldn’t have been better if it were scripted by a Hollywood screenwriter. While COP29 patted itself on the back, Trump’s America signaled that it has no intention of playing along.

The Final Word

The COP29 agreements will go down as another entry in the annals of climate grift history—a collection of empty promises and unenforceable pledges. Trump’s return, coupled with his America First cabinet, ensures that the U.S. will focus on real priorities: energy independence, economic growth, and putting Americans first.

For the climate elite, COP29 wasn’t just a failure; it was a funeral. The Paris Agreement is dead. The global climate agenda is on life support. And America? It’s roaring back to life. Sorry, Greta. Sorry, Baku. The adults are back in charge.

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November 24, 2024 at 08:03AM

COP 29 THE RESULT

 Here is a piece taken from the BBC report on the latest climate meeting in Azerbaijan. What I find unbelievable is the complete faith implied in the quoted projection of temperature change by 2100. Why should anyone have such faith, when virtually all the predictions that have been made in the past have proved false, such as the summer ice-free Arctic, and the rise in world temperatures from computer programmes. Doubt is simply not allowed, despite the many failures. It seems much more like a religion than a scientific study.  

Climate change: Where do we stand?

published at 10:27

10:27

A recent UN report warned that current policies put the world on track for around 3C warming by the end of the century, with other organisations mirroring those figures.

This is well above the target set out in the Paris agreement – which about 200 countries signed in 2015 – which aimed to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

The 1.5C target is still "technically possible", the UN says, but would need significant cuts to emissions in the next 10 years.

Graphic showing world off track for 1.5C target

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November 24, 2024 at 05:46AM

Open Thread

The world’s most viewed site on global warming and climate change

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November 24, 2024 at 04:01AM