Author: Iowa Climate Science Education

Cheltenham DCNN 4967 – Where are the likes of now?

51.89556 -2.08088 Likely CIMO assessment Class 5S Installed 1/1/1874 Closed 31/1/2001

The centre of the 10 metre radius circle marks the tree that was planted on the site of this former weather station that set the 1990 all time national “record”. A nearby memorial plaque honours the achievement. When reviewing a former Scottish record breaking site Greycrook, Tim channon made these interesting remarks

“I’ve posted this article so it is on file and as an incidental where looking at record breaking sites tends to show poor sites. Curiously records or near records tend to be set followed by site cessation or sudden site change / equipment change.

No mention of an instrument check or a site check.”

So I decided to further investigate this claim …………….

Up until the late 1970s the UK’s highest recorded temperature was regarded as 38.06°C on 22/7/1868 at Tonbridge in Kent. Despite being measured by an eminent scientist and member of the Royal Society,  Dr George Hunsley Fielding, it was later expunged from the records (over 100 years after the event) as being inaccurate. Many disputed this removal, nevertheless the decision was upheld. This left the official UK record being changed to 9/8/1911 of 36.7°C independently recorded at both Raunds in Northamptonshire and Canterbury in Kent. {An interesting observation is that despite recording the annual highest temperatures several times over the years, both the Raunds and Canterbury sites were closed down with no nearby replacements.}

This new record stood for 79 years until 3/8/1990 when Cheltenham entered the arena. Here is a local press report into the background of this record breaking site. A snippet below:

A charming tale of a dedicated observer at a manual station. However, to consider the site, the location is well known, marked locally and still just visible (blurry) in the 2001 Google Earth Pro aerial image. It was then, as now, not only an unnatural location in Montpelier Park but very regularly subject to large scale events as noted in the article above. Although a park, it is surrounded on all sides by housing and busy roads, winds are broken by trees and is in a significant Urban Heat Island creating this artificial sun trap. Whatever classification it may have been allocated by the Met Office back then, it would be CIMO class 5S (subject to shading) by today’s yardstick. Attempting to get a street view image of the modern site supplied this.

The weather station site was almost dead centre of the above, just to the end of the Marquee to the left and just before the smaller green banner in the distance. I have been informed by a former local resident that there was a similar style event to the above on that record breaking day (apparently these are very common throughout the summer high season) and I am trying to get documentary proof to confirm this. {Talkshop comment: if anyone can help in confirming this please put a note in comments}

It is quite clear the site was, as Tim put it, one of those “poor sites” at the best of times and was very probably further compromised by event activity. More damning is that the CEDA archives do not show that any calibration test or site inspection followed. The Met Office seemed somewhat desperate to break that 79 year old records simultaneously set at two different locations over 135 miles apart.

Although that day in 1990 was obviously very warm, was the high point actually verified by other readings in the area? Meteorological site “WeatherSpark” provides a very detailed analysis of areas over time as detailed below. This is well worth a detailed read as it indicates, from surrounding area data, that the Cheltenham site reading was likely an abnormal spike and only indicative of an extremely local and possibly non-meteorological nature.

https://weatherspark.com/h/y/39569/1990/Historical-Weather-during-1990-in-Cheltenham-United-Kingdom

As I discussed in my letter to Peter Kyle, these types of manual reporting stations were often closed if not deemed worthy of the expense or difficulty in converting to early forms of automation, though automation here should not have presented any problem. When the observer retired, they simply closed it down as readings were probably considered far too unreliable. The reporter in the article above suggests it was moved to the nearby airport – whatever did actually happen, there is no CIMO assessed climate reporting station now in the locality – the somewhat unreliable Hartpury College being the nearest.

An amusing sideline to this part of the story goes to the ineptitude of BBC reporters. An archived article about the Cheltenham record includes the line ” A Leicester weather station recorded a temperature of 37°C in Cheltenham, one degree higher than the previous record in 1911.” I seriously doubt the residents of Cheltenham in Gloucestershire would appreciate re-location to Leicestershire!

I feel the above demonstrates the start point of a growing imperative on the part of the Met Office to exaggerate and over-stress such trivial and extremely dubious records whilst progressively neglecting scientific integrity. The Cheltenham record was, at best, an outlier but more likely just plain inaccuracy caused by poor siting and/or an unfortunate “intervention by persons unknown” . This latter term was actually used by Phillip Eden, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, when reviewing the subsequent record breaking site in 2003 at Faversham . I shall discuss my own personal knowledge of that particular station’s record in a review shortly. This apparent lack of formal verification seems to reflect the poor quality control of the time as demonstrated at Greycrook and continued with the examples at Motherwell and Floors Castle.

In these more recent examples social media, availability of imagery and extensive access to information made it possible to hold the Met Office to account and correct such errors. In the 1990 (and even the 2003 subsequent record breaking event) these facilities were much less, or not at all, available. Most notable now is that current records such as Coningsby and Cranwell were achieved at sites with no general public access and limited access to photography.

The levels of alleged scientific integrity applied to major retrospective analysis of century old events identified at Tonbridge seem to be totally absent in similar analysis of current events where, it seems, anything goes.

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November 22, 2024 at 10:09AM

Time to ‘Net Zero’ USA out of UN climate meetings

The pressure groups attending COP29 were in full force and their agendas a bit, let’s just say, out there.

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November 22, 2024 at 09:25AM

Saturday

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November 22, 2024 at 08:17AM

Confessing to the Error of Biden’s Ways

by GAO Webadmin

Chris Horner, a lawyer for GAO in many open records cases as well as amicus briefs informing the courts what is actually going on with the regulatory onslaught we are seeing, had a piece in Monday’s Wall Street Journal combining both topics.

This item built on Horner’s most two recent Journal pieces, “The EPA Defies the Supreme Court” (August 2023) and “EPA’s Deceptive Climate Regulations Won’t Stand in Court” (May 2024). The common thread is that a scofflaw band of regulators have gotten far too far over their legal skis, and in so doing were not only too clever but dishonest. Which outright dishonesty should be their agenda’s downfall. However, this requires a Trump administration willing to fight back just as hard, but toward strictly applying a robust body of recent Supreme Court precedent.

It needs to begin now, with the transition. Word counts being the cruel mistress they are, Horner agreed to provide further insights into how a Trump transition and administration would go about expeditiously rescinding Biden’s “suite of rules,” among other overreaches. His comments to GAO include:

Politico reports that right-leaning watchdog groups filed thousands of Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests during the Biden tenure. As counsel in dozens of lawsuits over these requests for GAO and others I have seen troves of records that, while often heavily redacted, nonetheless provide sufficient context to raise serious concerns and warrant further scrutiny. The Trump administration can review all such records in unredacted form to assess the appearance of malfeasance.

Agencies are unlikely to cooperate. As part of the 2016 Trump transition “Landing Team,” I followed the prescribed process for requesting unredacted copies of certain EPA records that had been released, in part, under FOIA. They appeared to be highly relevant to the transition team’s work drafting the plan for an incoming administrator. Career agency employees denied my requests, and those of others.

The bureaucracy loses this control on inauguration day. This time there should be a commitment to follow up, immediately, recognizing this best chance for timely reversal of unlawful rules.

Sadly, this requires not just one attorney in each agency’s general counsel’s office committed to discerning whether errors requiring confession occurred but, just to be sure, also an enterprise management, or IT, professional, capable of reconstructing any overzealous deletions.

Just as important, according to Horner, is for the Trump team to recognize that while the Biden Clean Power Plan 2.0 is a major rule and will doubtless fall under the Major Questions doctrine—possibly even via a stay by SCOTUS in the first half of next year—the Biden EPA’s”suite of rules” are not necessarily all major rules unless the lawyers convince the court to view them cumulatively, as EPA does. To do so, the challengers should seize on EPA Administrator Michael Regan’s excited utterances admitting that he pushed the “suite of rules” to force precisely what SCOTUS ruled in West Virginia v. EPA the Agency does not have the power to force: an agency preference as to how Americans get their electricity.

EPA’s Regan admitted this goal publicly, and seemingly others also did in heavily redacted internal documents even while the Agency denied, in the rule makings, that any power plant retirements would result. Better to just take Regan at his word that these rules are a cumulative attempt at something the major questions doctrine prohibits, and ask the court to accept his own confession.

GAO argued this in its amicus brief in Kentucky v. EPA, as should the challengers if they mean business. Meanwhile, the Trump administration should confess this error and target rescission of those rules, in particular, for their breathtaking violation of the rule against pretext.

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November 22, 2024 at 08:05AM