Author: Iowa Climate Science Education

Green Blues…As Fog Persists For Days In Germany, Green Energy Output Falls To Near Zero!

At 5 p.m. last Wednesday, Germany’s 1602 offshore wind turbines in the North and Baltic Seas stood still…solar output was also near zero. Germany had to scramble to keep supply going. 

The enemy of green energy: the high pressure system

By

In the words of Professor Claudia Kemfert: It is a myth to believe that solar and wind do not provide enough electricity. The myth that there will be enough wind and sunshine somewhere in Europe was shattered at the beginning of November 2024. Daniel Wetzel describes the situation in the online Die Welt (pay article)

At 5 p.m. on Wednesday, solar power was only supplying a single megawatt hour. The 1602 offshore wind turbines in the North and Baltic Seas – each one the size of the Eiffel Tower – were at a complete standstill. Zero electricity production.

The onshore wind turbines produced only 114 megawatt hours at that hour, with German electricity consumption at 63,000 megawatt hours. Transmission system operator Amprion described the situation on the LinkedIn web portal on Thursday: ‘The minimum feed-in from wind and PV was just around 100 megawatts in total (in the period from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m.).’

This means that the 87,000 megawatts of photovoltaic capacity and around 72,000 megawatts of wind power installed in Germany with triple-digit billion-euro subsidies were virtually unused for hours on end. There was no danger to the power supply, it was said. ‘No sun, no wind – yesterday and today there was a dark doldrums in Germany,’ explained Amprion on Thursday: ‘But our system management had everything under control.’”

Without the fossil power producers and foreign countries, things would have looked bad. A situation that was to be expected – but was consistently smiled away. Instead, graphics of the annual cycle were waved around to show that sun and wind would complement each other perfectly.

The fatal thing about the situation is the prices. Fossil power generation has been made politically more expensive and in times of shortage, prices really go through the roof. Die Welt added:

The peak prices of the past week are possibly just a harbinger of what is to be expected in the coming winter. The expert agency “Montel” quotes energy market experts who expect price peaks of 1000 euros per megawatt hour in the event of further wind lulls. This is because in times of low wind power production, increasingly expensive gas-fired power plants have to step in, which then define the market price level.

Traders interviewed by “Montel” also referred to the German nuclear and coal phase-out, which has reduced the base load-capable power plant capacity that can produce regardless of the weather. The imminent onset of the autumn and winter cold in Europe is also likely to drive up prices. This is because France in particular will then see a sharp increase in its own consumption, as many heating systems in the country are powered by electricity. The surge in demand for electricity in France is likely to further increase the relative shortage on the European Power Exchange and thus drive up prices.”

 

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November 10, 2024 at 10:34AM

Updated CCGT Costs Confirmed As Much Cheaper Than Renewables

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/electricity-generation-costs-2023

I asked DESNZ to send me their workings for the Levelised Generations Costs published last year. At the time, they put a cost of £114/MWh on CCGT, or £54/MWh excluding the irrelevant Carbon Cost).

I was particularly interested in what the costs would be based on current fuel costs.

The spreadsheet they sent me shows they have assumed operating efficiency of 53%. In other words to produce 1 MWh of electricity, you need to input 1.886 MWh of fuel.

Their original costings assumed a natural gas price of 64p/therm in 2025, falling to 56p in 2026, then rising back to 67p by 2049 (all at 2021 prices). The levelised costs are based on the cost over the 25-year lifetime of the plant.

The most recent DESNZ fossil fuel price assumptions, published in September, list a price next year of 75p, then dropping back to 70p. Prices after 2030 are highly subjective and should not really concern us, though DESNZ think they will drop further, notingthat increasing liquification capacity will put downward  pressure on prices:

Remember these are all presented in real terms, at 2023 prices.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fossil-fuel-price-assumptions-2024

If we plug in the 75p price for next year, we get a fuel cost of £48.29/MWh, compared to the figure of £43 in the Levelised Cost report.

Using 70p/therm, which looks to be representative of the next ten years or so, that cost drops to £45.07/MWh. That would indicate a total cost, excl Carbon Cost, of about £56/MWh.

Remember that the operational costs are still costed at 2021 prices, but they are small enough to make little difference.

It is these sort of costs that we need to be comparing with the known CfD prices for offshore wind, currently around £82/MWh.

Although I have dismissed Carbon Costs as not being a cost as such, it is worth noting that the Levelised Cost of £60/MWh for carbon implies a Carbon Price of about £174/tonne CO2. (Curiously the spreadsheet uses £83.03/tonne, giving a cost of £28.66/MWh.) Carbon Prices this year have been around £40/tonne, thus adding about £14/MWh to CCGT generation costs.

Given that gas power tends  to set the wholesale market price of electricity, currently around £80/MWh, that £14 makes a big difference. Put another way, if the Carbon Pricing scheme was abolished, wholesale prices could  potentially drop to £66/MWh.


I can email the spreadsheet to anybody interested.

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November 10, 2024 at 08:06AM

Open Thread

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November 10, 2024 at 04:05AM

Exposed: Washington Post Capital Weather Gang defies owner Jeff Bezos

Related links: Bezos commentary | Warm DC weather article | Dry Northeast weather article

via JunkScience.com

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November 10, 2024 at 03:34AM