Author: Iowa Climate Science Education

ICJ Issues Biased Advice on Climate Change

Activists hoping the opinion from the ICJ’s judges will have far-reaching legal consequences in the fight against climate change Image: Peter Dejong/AP Photo/picture alliance

The media is rampant today with headlines like these:

World Court says countries are legally obligated to curb emissions, protect climate, UN News

World’s top court says major polluters may need to pay reparations for climate harm, CNN

UN’s top court says failing to protect planet from climate change could violate international law, CBC

Top UN court says countries can sue each other over climate change, BBC

Top U.N. Court Says Countries Must Act on Climate Change, New York Times

Etc., Etc., Etc.

I asked perplexity.ai: (bolds in answer supplied by perplexity)

Question: How did the ICJ address scientists disputing IPCC reports like Clintel in its climate advice?

Answer: The International Court of Justice (ICJ), in its advisory proceedings on climate change, did not address or give consideration to scientists or groups—such as Clintel—who dispute the findings of the IPCC. Instead, the ICJ relied heavily and explicitly on the IPCC as the authoritative source on climate science throughout the process.

Key points from the available evidence:

  • The ICJ held a private meeting with IPCC scientists just before hearings began, reflecting the Court’s view of the IPCC as the “scientific pillar” of the climate change regime1.

  • This meeting was not part of the formal, public hearings and did not include scientists who dissent from the IPCC—states and organizations participating in the advisory proceedings had no opportunity to question or respond to IPCC scientists1.

  • The process was criticized for lacking transparency and procedural fairness precisely because it favored a single scientific perspective (the IPCC’s), with no indication that alternative scientific viewpoints were admitted or reviewed1.

  • The UN General Assembly’s request for the advisory opinion itself referenced the “utmost concern [for] the scientific consensus expressed” in the IPCC reports, reinforcing the Court’s mandate to treat the IPCC’s findings as the foundation for its analysis13.

  • Available commentaries and summaries of the ICJ process do not mention any engagement with scientists or organizations disputing IPCC conclusions, nor do they report that groups like Clintel were referenced or invited as experts13.

  • While the ICJ has, in rare past cases, consulted technical experts informally, in this climate case it only announced consultation with IPCC figures, reinforcing the exclusion of dissident scientific voices19.

In summary, the ICJ’s approach gave exclusive scientific authority to the IPCC and provided no forum, reference, or weight to scientists disputing its reports, such as those from Clintel13. The Court did not discuss or acknowledge the existence of such scientific disagreement in its process, instead treating the IPCC’s consensus as fact. This approach has been criticized for its lack of transparency and its failure to incorporate procedural safeguards for alternative scientific views19.

Followup Question: Why might the World Court have misunderstood the legal status of the Paris Accord?

Answer: The World Court might have appeared to misunderstand or at least oversimplify the legal status of the Paris Agreement because the Agreement’s nature is complex and somewhat ambiguous under international law, blending legally binding procedural obligations with politically framed, flexible commitments that lack sharp enforcement mechanisms.

Key reasons explaining why the Court could be seen as misunderstanding or glossing over these complexities include:

  • Legal Flexibility and Lack of Enforcement: The Paris Agreement is a treaty with binding procedural obligations but lacks strong accountability measures, sanctions, or punitive mechanisms for non-compliance1. Articles 13 and 15 establish monitoring and compliance mechanisms that are explicitly “non-intrusive” and “non-punitive,” reflecting the Agreement’s flexible, voluntary essence rather than strict legal constraints on outcome1. Courts may struggle to treat such a hybrid treaty as fully binding in the traditional sense.

  • Ambiguity over Obligation Types: The Paris Agreement distinguishes between “obligations of conduct” (procedural duties) versus “obligations of result” (achieving emission cuts). It requires parties to submit NDCs and report on implementation but does not legally bind States to achieve specific emission targets or outcomes34. This ambiguity can lead to varying interpretations of the Agreement’s binding force.

  • Differing State Practices and Interpretations: There remains disagreement among states and experts about whether the Paris Agreement creates firm legal obligations to prevent climate change or is largely aspirational with voluntary commitments6. Some states perceive it as political guidance rather than a hard treaty, influencing how international bodies perceive its weight.

  • Constraints of International Litigation and Court Jurisdiction: International courts like the ICJ have limited jurisdiction and cannot enforce treaty provisions on states unwilling to submit to their authority1. This constrains how formally the Court can treat the Agreement’s legal status, especially when major emitters are outside its compulsory jurisdiction16. The Court’s advisory role means it clarifies law based on existing commitments but cannot enforce or create new obligations.

  • Interaction with Customary International Law: Some legal scholarship suggests that customary international law—independent but related to treaty law—may impose broader climate duties on states, which complicates whether the Court grounds its decisions on the Paris Agreement alone or on evolving international legal norms1.

In sum, the World Court may have been perceived as misunderstanding the Paris Agreement’s legal status because the Agreement is simultaneously a legally binding treaty in form with procedural and transparency obligations, yet it remains politically flexible, non-punitive, and ambiguous regarding enforcement or specific outcome obligations. This hybrid nature poses challenges for courts in characterizing it strictly as a binding treaty imposing strong legal duties, thus potentially giving the appearance of oversimplification or misunderstanding in the Court’s advice.

Therefore, the Court’s approach likely reflects the difficulty of interpreting a treaty designed to maximize participation through flexibility rather than strong binding commitments, rather than a simple misunderstanding of the Paris Agreement’s status1346.

 

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July 23, 2025 at 04:59PM

CLAIM: Heatwaves to increase in frequency, duration under global warming

When I saw this press release from Portland State University, I knew I would not have to look far to spot the bias and/or error. First it’s a climate model, second, it’s the WORST climate model, CMIP6 -Anthony

Via Eurekalert:
As the climate becomes warmer on average, it makes intuitive sense that we will see more hot days and we’ve had predictions of this for some time. However, the duration of heatwaves — how many days in a row exceed a temperature that is unusually hot for a given region — can be very important for impacts on humans, livestock and ecosystems. Predicting how these durations will change under a long-term warming trend is more challenging because day-to-day temperatures are correlated — tomorrow’s temperatures have a dependence on today’s temperature.

This study takes this effect into account, along with the warming seen in current and historical observations and projected for the future by climate models for a wide range of land regions. Not only do the heatwave durations increase, but each additional increment of warming causes a larger increase in the typical length of long heat waves. In other words, if the next decade brings as much large-scale warming as a previous decade, the additional increase in heatwave durations would be even larger than we’ve experienced so far.

Abstract

Heatwaves are expected to both increase in frequency and duration under global warming. The probability distributions of heatwave durations are shaped by day-to-day correlations in temperature and so cannot be simply inferred from changes in the probabilities of daily temperature extremes. Here we show from statistical analysis of global historical and projected temperature data that changes in long-duration heatwaves increase nonlinearly with temperature. Specifically, from analysis informed by theory for autocorrelated fluctuations applied to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model simulations, we find that the nonlinearity results in acceleration of the rate increase with warming; that is, each increment of regional time-averaged warming increases the characteristic duration scale of long heatwaves more than the previous increment. We show that the curve for this acceleration can be approximately collapsed onto a single dependence across regions by normalizing by local temperature variability. Projections of future change can thus be compared to observations of recent change over part of their range, which supports the near-future-projected acceleration. We also find that the longest, most uncommon heatwaves for a given region have the greatest increase in likelihood, yielding a compounding source of nonlinear impacts.

Journal Nature Geoscience


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July 23, 2025 at 04:04PM

BBC Wants Poor Countries To Sue Us For Making Them Better Off

By Paul Homewood

h/t Philip Bratby

 

 image

A landmark decision by a top UN court has cleared the way for countries to sue each other over climate change, including over historic emissions of planet-warming gases.

But the judge at the International Court of Justice in the Hague, Netherlands on Wednesday said that untangling who caused which part of climate change could be difficult.

The ruling is non-binding but legal experts say it could have wide-ranging consequences.

It will be seen as a victory for countries that are very vulnerable to climate change, who came to court after feeling frustrated about lack of global progress in tackling the problem.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce379k4v3pwo

It is now time to shut down the BBC, who now seem to hate the Britain so much.

There is no such thing as a “UN Court”, in legal terms at least. And if some tin pot country dares to sue us, we should tell them to get lost. Who are they going to send round to collect their damages? The far left moron, Justin Rowlatt maybe?

Meanwhile, maybe the BBC might care to abandon fossil fuels completely, if they are really so damaging to those poorer countries. And that goes for the left wing idiots who wrote this ridiculous story – Esme Stallard and Georgina Rannard.

I am sure they are enjoying a lovely lifestyle, thanks to the very fossil fuels they demonise.

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July 23, 2025 at 02:47PM

COPocalypse Now

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

The next UN Climate Change Conference, COP30, will be held in Belém, Brazil, from November 10-21, 2025. Near as I can tell, “COP” stands for “Conference of Party-goers”, because most of what goes on at these quackathons is eating and drinking. And asking for money. Here’s Josh on the subject—previous COP, same story.

Each country was required to submit its plan for how it will fight the eeevil CO2, called an “NDC” for “Nationally Determined Contribution”, by February 25th.

I got to wondering how many of the 197 countries that belong to the United Nations have submitted updated national climate plans to the UN so far. Turns out it’s only about 8-10% depending on how you count … and tragically, one of them is from the US. I guess Biden holdovers slipped it out the door when Trump folks weren’t watching, or maybe before the inauguration.

So I went and got the document from the link.

It’s 35 pages of the usual doublespeak from some committee of pluted government bloatocrats. Being unwilling to hack my way through the govern-mental psychobabble, to get an overview I used the technique I described in Learning With The Dumbest Genius Librarian. Details are in the appendix. After getting Level 1 data and then typing “more”, I get this:


Extended Factual Overview: U.S. 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

Official Target

  • The United States’ 2035 NDC aims for an economy-wide reduction of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 61–66% below 2005 levels by 2035.
  • This target covers all GHG sectors and aligns with the nation’s net-zero goal for 2050.

Sectoral Contributions

Power/Electricity:

  • Achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035, including phase-out of unabated coal plants by 2030 and strengthened regulations on gas plants.
  • This requires a 2–4x increase in renewable capacity additions and a 73–100% reduction in electricity generation from fossil fuels.

Transportation:

  • Target 83–100% share of electric vehicles in new car sales by 2035.
  • Enforce advanced emissions and efficiency standards for all vehicle categories, including freight and aviation.

Industry:

  • Promote widespread adoption of low-carbon manufacturing, carbon capture, and methane reductions, especially in oil, gas, and waste sectors.
  • Methane emissions reductions of at least 35% from 2005 by 2035 are anticipated, with possible higher reductions through intensified measures.

Buildings:

  • Strengthen energy codes, promote electrification, and improve efficiency standards for equipment and appliances.

Agriculture and Land Use:

  • Enhance practices for soil carbon sequestration, reduce agricultural methane, and increase sustainable land management.

Federal and Subnational Roles

  • Success depends on integrated efforts by federal, state, Tribal, and local governments, alongside businesses and civil society.
  • Landmarks such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) form the backbone of federal investments. These are complemented by state policies and non-federal actions, critical for bridging the gap toward the NDC target.

Modeling and Ambition

Scientific Pathways and Analysis:

  • Multi-model studies show that only expansive new policies and cross-sector action will deliver a 56–67% GHG reduction by 2035; current policies alone result in a 34–44% cut.
  • Enhanced ambition scenarios require a national average annual decarbonization rate of 3.7% from 2020–2035, up from 2.2% under current laws.

Methane and Non-CO₂ Gases:

  • Methane is addressed via fees and standards in oil, gas, coal, landfill, and agriculture, aiming up to a 48% reduction by 2035 in some scenarios.

Climate Justice and Equity

  • The NDC emphasizes equity, ensuring that emissions-reduction strategies deliver benefits to vulnerable, Indigenous, and low-income populations.
  • Justice-focused approaches are embedded through consultation and implementation at all levels, aiming to promote a just and inclusive transition.

Yeah, right. Let’s look at a few of those.


  • The United States’ 2035 NDC aims for an economy-wide reduction of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 61–66% below 2005 levels by 2035.
  • This target covers all GHG sectors and aligns with the nation’s net-zero goal for 2050.

Here are US CO2 emissions by year, along with the NDC goals.

Figure 1. US CO2 emissions by year. Red lines show the path to the 2035 goal (62.5% percent of the 2005 emissions, and the 2050 goal (zero). Red dotted line goes from 2005 to 2023, representing an average decrease of -69 megatonnes per year. To achieve the 2035 goal requires an average annual decrease of -117 megatonnes per year, and to achieve the 2050 goal requires -280 megatonnes per year.

It’s a wonderful fantasy, but totally unachievable. The gains since the peak have been because of the replacement of coal by gas, but much of that has already occurred. At present, only about a quarter of CO2 emissions come from electricity, so even if we could bring that to zero, how will we cut the other three-quarters of the emissions?

Then we have:


Power/Electricity:

  • Achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035, including phase-out of unabated coal plants by 2030 and strengthened regulations on gas plants.
  • This requires a 2–4x increase in renewable capacity additions and a 73–100% reduction in electricity generation from fossil fuels.

Yeah, right. Many of the best solar and wind sites are in use. After hundreds of billions in subsidies over decades, solar plus wind provide only 17% of US power. And because they are intermittent, we’ll need fossil-powered backup.

Next, their numbers make no sense. Given the limitations of batteries, to get to 100% clean energy, fossil use must go to zero. But they say it could drop by just 73% and we’d be able to get to clean energy … how?

And further on, we see:


Transportation:

  • Target 83–100% share of electric vehicles in new car sales by 2035.
  • Enforce advanced emissions and efficiency standards for all vehicle categories, including freight and aviation.

Yeah, sure. In 2024, after years of hype and billions in subsidies, EVs are 1.6% of the cars on the US highways. And even at that low level, it’s putting a strain on the grid. If they get to be a large percentage of cars on the road, the grid will crumble … and that’s not even including the huge and growing electricity need for AI.

There’s more, but I’ll stop there. My brain can’t take the bogus claims of “CLIMATE EQUITY”. I can hear my cranial gears stripping when I start thinking about it. The whole document is a farrago of lies, deceptions, fantasies, and green dreams.

However, there is some very good news.

First, President Trump has pulled the US out of the climate grift entirely, and second, this is a non-binding agreement. Every nation just puts in ridiculous goals and gets to feel all virtuous.

And hopefully, before the 25th Conference of the Party-goers, this document will be withdrawn.

Onwards, we’re gaining ground,

w.

PS—Here it is again. When you comment, please quote the exact words you are discussing. If you can’t figure out why I’m asking this … think harder.

PPS—To replicate and extend my analysis, copy everything below the separator line below, paste it into your favorite AI (I use perplexity.ai), and hit enter. It lets you get a large overview and then dig in to obscure corners.


{https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/2024-12/United%20States%202035%20NDC.pdf}= Topic of Study

1. Input Stage: Topic Declaration

  • Insert your topic of interest between the curly braces above.
  • From this point forward, your topic will be referred to as “M”.
  • All output will be strictly factual, source-verified information related to M.

2. Core Operating Principles

A. Role Definition

  • You are an independent researcher gathering information for article creation.
  • I am strictly your research assistant.
  • My only function is to deliver comprehensive, factual, and verifiable information on M.
  • I do not advise, hypothesize, interpret, or suggest presentation formats regarding M.

B. Boundaries: What I Will Not Do

  • I will not recommend articles or presentation formats for M.
  • I will not provide advice, tips, or writing guidance on M.
  • I will not summarize or interpret M unless quoting or directly citing a primary source.
  • I will only deliver source-backed facts about M.

C. Data Standards & Source Policy

  • All factual claims will be linked to a directly traceable, verified primary source.
  • Examples: peer-reviewed journals, official government/public research databases, established scientific institutions.
  • No data from AI models, platforms without access to the original source, or unverifiable summaries will be used.
  • All links will be embedded as live hyperlinks at the end of the statement.
  • Citations are placed immediately after the corresponding statement, never in a collective footnote or end-of-document format.
  • Each factual claim must be verifiable through the actual URL of the cited source.
  • If a claim cannot be verified by primary evidence, it will be omitted—with the limitation explicitly stated and speculation excluded.

D. Quality Control

  • Before providing any answer, I perform a self-audit:
  • If any component of my response lacks direct traceability to a verified source, it is flagged or excluded.
  • I do not extrapolate, synthesize, or “guess” based on pattern recognition or indirect evidence.
  • If evidence is unavailable or conflicting, this will be clearly stated.

3. Output System: Choose Your Desired Response Level

  • After you submit your topic, you will receive the following prompt:
  • “Which output do you need?”
  • Type “1” for: Basic Information
  • Overview-level summary about the study of M.
  • Type “2” for: Specialized Information
  • In-depth technical knowledge categorized by topics.
  • You may also type “more” at any level to request extended output.

Output 1 – Basic Information on M

  • Goal: Provide a foundational understanding of M.
  • Includes:
  • Introduction to the field
  • General facts
  • High-level points of importance
  • Navigation:
    • Type “2” at any point to move to Specialized Information.
    • Type “more” to expand the Basic Information.

Output 2 – Specialized Information on M

  • Goal: Access deep, subject-specific, and technical content on M.
  • Process & Features:
  • You receive a numbered Table of Contents listing specialized topics related to M.
  • Each of the specialized topics will be followed by 3 numbered subtopics
  • You select a topic by typing “option X” where X is the number of the item.
  • I provide fully-sourced, comprehensive information on that topic.
  • Expandable Topic Navigation:
    • To explore deeper levels:
    • Type “topics … (name of topic)” — and I will return all subtopics of that topic.
    • This structure supports infinite hierarchy:
    • Primary topics → Secondary topics → Tertiary topics … and so on.
    • At any level, typing “more” fetches additional topics at that same level.
    • At any time, type “1” to return to Basic Information.

Citation Enforcement:

  • Every statement is accompanied by a live citation to its primary source in the -style format.
  • No aggregation of sources at the end. Each claim stands alone with its citation.
  • If a traceable, authoritative source is not available for a datum, I will not include the datum.

4. Checking and double-checking. Before delivering any answer, double-check that each citation and reference actually exists and is valid.

5. Workflow Summary

  • Enter your topic between the curly braces — e.g., {constructal flow in climate modeling}.
  • Receive a prompt to choose between:
  • “1” — Basic Information
  • “2” — Specialized Information
  • Use logic commands to explore and navigate:
  • “option X” to select topics
  • “topics … X” to drill deeper into topic structure
  • “more” to extend any current layer
  • “1” to return to Basic view
  • Now: Insert your topic between the curly braces above, and type your output selection (“1” or “2”) to begin.

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July 23, 2025 at 12:08PM