Arctic Warming Reverse! New Study Finds Winter Arctic Sea Ice “To Increase Towards 2020”
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It is not uncommon to hear from Europe’s media that climate change is to blame whenever a weather anomaly occurs on the old continent. The reason for the climate change of course gets attributed to man and fossil fuel emissions.
Ocean drives
Therefore, it is all the more interesting that a new paper has just been published, telling us Europe’s climate is foremost driven by ocean cycles.
In a paper by Marius Årthun et al appearing in Nature Communication titled: Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean, researchers checked whether anomalous heat in the Gulf Stream’s northern extension provided predictability of northwestern European and Arctic climate.
Result: “Variations in ocean temperature in the high latitude North Atlantic and Nordic Seas are reflected in the climate of northwestern Europe and in winter Arctic sea ice extent” and that “a significant part of northern climate variability thus can be skillfully predicted up to a decade in advance based on the state of the ocean“. No, not CO2.
New study shows that ocean cycles allow for “skillful prediction” of northern climate. Source: Nature Communication here.
Norway will cool
What does it mean for the immediate climate future? The paper’s abstract writes:
Particularly, we predict that Norwegian air temperature will decrease over the coming years, although staying above the long-term (1981–2010) average. Winter Arctic sea ice extent will remain low but with a general increase towards 2020.”
If the authors are correct, it’s obvious that for the next few years CO2 will not be able to prevent Norway from cooling and winter Arctic sea ice from growing. That means the ocean is a more powerful driver. The Arctic obviously is strongly connected to the oceans, much more so than some alarmist scientists would have us believe.
Winter sea ice rebound expected
The authors also make further interesting points that certainly should be a surprise to those stuck on rapid manmade warming and ice melt. For example the scientists found an influence of “poleward ocean heat anomalies on northern climate” and that it may be possible to make predictions for the region beyond decades.
They write: “Our sea ice prediction is furthermore in agreement with recent model results predicting a rebound in winter sea ice extent as a result of decreased poleward heat transport.”
According to the authors, he North Atlantic has been cooling recently, a trend which is “predicted to continue over the coming years” and that “a further cooling of Norwegian SAT [surface air temperature] might therefore be expected” beyond their prediction horizon.
Ocean variability exerts “strong influence”
The authors emphasize there is “compelling evidence that oceanic variability exerts a strong influence on northern climate on multi-annual timescales“.
The entire paper is available here.
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June 23, 2017 at 08:41AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 