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The Lancet and Air Pollution

The Lancet and Air Pollution

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By Paul Homewood

 

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We’ve pretty much covered the topic of air pollution and premature deaths already this week.

But this latest study has just been published by The Lancet.

No doubt, it will be used to press for more, wonderful renewable energy, and less fossil fuels.

These are the findings, (my bold):

 

 

Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015.

 

The study seems to share the same methodology as previous studies, and is based around statistical models. The paper describes its methods:

Attributing deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to ambient air pollution requires spatially and temporally resolved estimates of population-weighted exposure, specification of a theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), estimation of relative risks across the exposure distribution, and estimates of the deaths and DALYs for diseases linked causally to air pollution. We combined estimates of exposure and relative risk to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF), the proportion of deaths and DALYs attributable to exposure above the TMREL. The numbers of deaths and DALYs for specific diseases were multiplied by the PAF to estimate the burden attributable to exposure.

In short, they have to guess the exposure to PMs in different regions across the world since 1990, guess the “safe exposure level”, guess the relative risks for various exposures, and guess the number of deaths that might have arisen from all of this.

In other words, the results depend on the assumptions you feed the model. Change these, and you could easily get ten times the number of deaths, or a tenth.

 

There are some parts of the study that are worth noting though.

First the geographic distribution. The table below lists the data for the ten most populous countries:

 

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We find that the the Asian countries (excl Japan and Russia) listed account for 2.5 million of the world total of 4.2 million.

At the other end of the scale, death rates in the US and Japan are way below rest. Clearly this is a problem for the developing world, and much less so for the US and Europe.

It is of course no secret that air pollution is a very real problem in much of Asia, and part of this arises from household fuels.

 

 

The second thing to note is the role that population ageing plays:

 

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In the US, for instance, there has been less exposure to pollution since 1990, and consequently less deaths as a result.

However, this has been partly offset by an ageing population. As I commented the other day, we all have to die of something sooner or later. An, sadly, when we get to 80, we are much more likely to succumb to respiratory disease. Particularly when we may have been exposed to polluted air for many decades previously.

Indeed, this ageing factor is apparent across every country except Nigeria.

In reality, the increase in deaths estimated by the study since 1990 simply reflects the fact that people have not died from other causes first.

Increased population also accounts for more deaths.

 

Taking this issue of age into account, the study reckons that deaths from air pollution in the UK has nearly halved since 1990, from 44.0 to 22.8 deaths per 100,000.

How many of these are due to exposure in the past is open to question.

 

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It does not take a genius to work out that countries like China desperately need the sort of air pollution controls that the we in the west have had for decades.

They also badly need access to reliable, cheap energy so they don’t have to rely on burning wood and coal at home.

Provision of modern, clean power stations will achieve all of this in a way that renewable energy never will.

 

As for us in the west, we must not be afraid to acknowledge just how much things have improved in the last few decades. Without doubt death rates will continue to plummet.

But we must be very careful we don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.

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April 14, 2017 at 09:36AM

China Chief Climate Negotiator: Where’s the Money?

China Chief Climate Negotiator: Where’s the Money?

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Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Top Chinese Climate Negotiator Xie Zhenhua has responded to a parade of official reassurances about the Paris Climate Agreement, by demanding to know when “developed” countries will start paying China the money which was promised in Paris.

Signatories to climate change agreement in dispute over financing

China’s negotiator says developed countries have not met their commitments.

A gap of at least $40bn in financing commitments is hampering efforts to combat climate change, signatories to the Paris agreement have warned, as they try to keep the agreement going in the face of doubts over US support under President Donald Trump.

Disputes over who will foot the bill comes as the Trump administration’s energy secretary, Rick Perry, scuppered a joint statement about climate change at a G7 energy meeting in Rome this week.

…

The Paris agreement to limit global temperature rises to under 2 degrees Celsius includes financial commitments from developed countries to help developing nations deal with climate change. Before its adoption it was agreed this amount should reach $100bn a year. However, it has been estimated that only $60bn has been committed so far.

Climate ministers from Europe, India, Brazil and South Africa have gone to Beijing in recent weeks, hoping to sustain momentum from the Paris talks despite the Trump administration’s dismantling of US regulations meant to limit American emissions. But discussions have quickly run up against the issue of financing.

“Developed countries have not met their commitments. In their reports a lot of their commitment is in the form of development aid. That doesn’t meet the commitment to contribute to new funds,” China’s top climate change negotiator, Xie Zhenhua, told a briefing on Tuesday. “A lot of countries don’t want to chip in. I said to the European minister: that’s your problem as developed countries. It’s your responsibility to work together and sort it out.”

…

Meanwhile, red tape prevents funds that have been committed from flowing to developing counties, said Ravi Prasad, India’s minister for environment, forest and climate change, calling the $60bn in commitments “highly suspicious” since the sum included previously allocated funds including aid. “When we go behind the numbers we find there has been a reclassification of the bilateral flows,” Mr Prasad said.

Mr Xie said: “Enthusiasm isn’t the problem but there are some doubts. I believe other countries feel the same.”

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This bizarre diplomatic pantomime reinforces my view that the entire international climate movement is a mirage funded by US taxpayers.

In my opinion the only reason China signed up to their non-commitment to do something about CO2 emissions, is they expected the USA to borrow money from China, then return that money back to China as climate aid – which would have left US taxpayers an international laughing stock, paying off loans which have already been paid back to China.

Now Trump seems likely to cancel the payments, China wants to know why they should keep pretending.

European ministers might have the “enthusiasm”, but so far at least they aren’t putting up their own cash.

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April 14, 2017 at 09:21AM

To fight climate change, a new bill would ban all fossil fuels by 2050

To fight climate change, a new bill would ban all fossil fuels by 2050

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In a publicity stunt tied directly to the People’s Climate March, Sen. Jeff Merkley (Ore.-D) will announce new legislation that would ban fossil fuels by 2050. Merkley said he will introduce the bill the week of April 24, ahead of the planned rallies across the country. The legislation, co-sponsored by Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt-I), is […]

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April 14, 2017 at 08:26AM

Huge Ancient Methane Seeps Discovered in the Canadian High Arctic

Huge Ancient Methane Seeps Discovered in the Canadian High Arctic

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From the GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA

Boulder, Colo., USA: Cretaceous climate warming led to a significant methane release from the seafloor, indicating potential for similar destabilization of gas hydrates under modern global warming. A field campaign on the remote Ellef Ringnes Island, Canadian High Arctic, discovered an astounding number of methane seep mounds in Cretaceous age sediments.

This is the first methane mound, Canadian High Arctic. Credit: Stephen Grasby and Geological Society of America Bulletin

Seep mounds are carbonate deposits, often hosting unique fauna, which form at sites of methane leakage into the seafloor. Over 130 were found covering over 10,000 square kilometers of the Cretaceous sea floor. They occurred over a very short time interval immediately following onset of Cretaceous global warming, suggesting that the warming destabilized gas hydrates and released a large burb of methane. Given that methane has 20 times the impact of CO2 as a greenhouse gas, such a release could have accelerated global warming at that time. This discovery supports concerns of potential destabilization of modern methane hydrates.

Background
A field campaign was run during 2009-2011 to map the geology of Ellef Ringnes Island. Around the same size as Jamaica, this is one of the most remote and difficult to access islands in the Canadian High Arctic, and as such not much was known about the geology. A remote helicopter supported field camp was established in 2009, with a peak of 30 geoscientists working from the camp in 2010 as part of the Geological Survey of Canada’s GEM Program. The island, and its neighbor Amund Ringnes Island, were named after brothers who founded Norway’s Ringnes Brewery that funded the exploration of the region conducted by Otto Sverdrup in the early 1900s

As part of this work, Krista Williscroft, Stephen Grasby, and colleagues intended to reinvestigate strange spaghetti-like rock that was noticed, but the origin not understood, during the first geologic mapping of the island in the 1970s. Years later, a geologist saw a sample of this feature sitting on his colleague’s desk and was intrigued by its spaghetti like nature. Chemical analyses revealed that this was a carbonate rock formed by the oxidation of methane, and the spaghetti texture was formed by fossil tube worms. This was shortly after the first discovery of methane cold seeps in the modern oceans and became the first recognition of such features in the geologic record. In this case, it was known to have formed during the Cretaceous, the time of the dinosaurs roamed the earth, around 110 million years ago. Sadly, these original samples were lost, and given the remoteness of the location, it was not possible to gain more, limiting any further work.

Methane Cold Seeps
Methane cold seeps are similar to the more famous black smokers in that they form isolated ecosystems as oasis in the deep ocean, but are lower temperatures and form away from mid-ocean ridges. They forms at sites were natural methane gas leaks into seawater. Microbes oxidase this methane as a source of energy and produce carbonate deposits as a by-product. In the modern world, these sites are characterized by an unusual abundance of tube worms, bivalves (clams), molluscs, and other animals that survive on the microbial mats that grow there. In the rock record, they stand out as very unusual features that have this strange spaghetti-like appearance related to fossil tube worms and an abundance of other fossils. As they form in deep water they also stand out as resistant carbonate mounds in rock that is otherwise easily eroded shale.

New Discovery
In 2010 the intention was to revisit the site first discovered in the 1970s. It stood out as a small mound on the otherwise rolling landscape of arctic tundra. From this site another mound could be seen in the distance, which raised the tantalizing possibility of a second site. Some hard walking through thick mud paid off when it was reached, revealing another fossil methane seep. From there a further mound could be seen, and on and on. This lead to more than four weeks of trudging from mound to mound through muddy tundra, and the discovery of over 130 methane seep mounds in the rock record. This is now one of the most extensive sites of these features known anywhere in the world, covering more than 10,000 square kilometers.

Implications
A key feature of this discovery is recognition that all the seep mounds formed during a very narrow range of geologic time. Because they form by leakage of methane into seawater it implies that something at that time caused a large release of methane into the ocean. The timing is coincident with a period of global warming, and Williscroft and colleagues suggest that it was this warming that released methane frozen as methane hydrates in the sea floor, as a relatively sudden methane “burp.” If correct, this has important implications for modern warming of the Arctic Ocean. Similar frozen methane hydrates occur throughout the same arctic region as they did in the past, and warming of the ocean and release of this methane is of key concern as methane is 20x the impact of CO2 as a greenhouse gas. Release of methane hydrates has previously been suggested as a mechanism to drive runaway greenhouse events, as warming oceans releases trapped methane that causes further warming and releases more methane. The extensive methane seep mounds across the remote arctic island of Ellef Ringnes may be a caution from the past regarding potential impacts of modern warming of the Arctic Ocean.

FEATURED ARTICLE

Extensive Cretaceous methane seepage, Ellef Ringnes Island, Canadian High Arctic
Krista Williscroft, Stephen E. Grasby, Benoit Beauchamp, Crispin T.S. Little, Keith Dewing, Daniel Birgel, Terry Poulton, and Krzysztof Hryniewicz; http://ift.tt/2nNDrmT.
Contact: Steve Grasby, steve.grasby@canada.ca. A higher-resolution version of each image is available from Steven Grasby.

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April 14, 2017 at 08:19AM