Why Was It So Mild Last Month?

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By Paul Homewood

 

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It was unusually mild last month in England. According to the CET, it was 3.0C warmer than the 1961-90 average.

Global warming, I hear you cry. Well, maybe, but things are not quite that simple.

 

The first thing I should point out is that, although the 1961-90 average was 5.7C, the more relevant average for 1981-2010 was nearly a full degree warmer, at 6.6C.

The second thing to note is that last month was not the warmest on record. The warmest March was way back in 1957, with 1938 in second place.

 

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This gives a clue that we are observing a “weather” phenomenon, rather than a “climate” one.

 

A look at the distribution of daily temperatures gives some further clues as to what is going on.

Below is the “normal” distribution of days within temperature bands, based on the 1961-90 baseline.

 

 

Although the average mean temperature for this period was 5.7C, it is worth noting that the most common band is 7C to 7.9C. The next most common is 6C to 6.9C.

In other words, days when it is a degree or two warmer than average are perfectly common.

Now let’s add this year’s distribution:

 

 

For a start, we can see that there have been no days below 4C. (The coldest day was actually 4.8C). In an average March (1961-90 baseline), there would be 11 days colder than this.

At the other end of the scale, we find that the number of days above 8C has been much higher than average this year.

 

What is really interesting though is when we compare this March with those other warm ones in 1957 and 1938.

 

 

We can see that the distributions are extremely similar in those years as last month.

And, indeed, the weather was also very similar in 1938 and 1957.

In both of those years, there was persistent high pressure to the east, which pulled in south-westerly winds, and also led very dry weather over the east of the country.

 

 

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Fast forward to 2017, and we can see a very similar pattern of rainfall.

 

 

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The reality is that the mild weather which we experienced last month was no more than a weather event.

 

 

 

Sources

All CET data from:

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April 6, 2017 at 10:30PM

Poland Rejects EU Climate Policy, Prime Minister Warns

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Poland doesn’t agree with the introduced European Union (EU) climate policy norms, Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydlo announced Wednesday.

“As for climate policy, our position is clear: we do not agree with the norms that have been introduced. We will be consistent in protesting and looking for new solutions,” Szydlo said.

She made the remarks at a press conference when asked about Poland’s strategy towards the EU climate directive, considering that the country’s power industry is based mainly on coal.

Szydlo referred to an amendment to the National Emission Ceilings Directive (NEC) that aimed at reducing emissions from industry, traffic, power plants and agriculture. National emission commitments concern the period after 2020, but targets after year 2030 are also set.

The prime minister added that the EU climate norms were not only problem to Polish economy but to the other central European countries as well. “We will protect our economy,” Szydlo said.

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April 6, 2017 at 09:21PM

UK Looking To Renege On Climate Goals Post-Brexit – Reports

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April 6, 2017 at 09:21PM

Shale Boom Is Helping America’s Trade Balance with China

via The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
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The United States has been exporting crude oil for less than a year and a half after the four-decade ban on exports was lifted, but already buyers are lining up to tap this new, stable supply.

Canada has bought up most of this crude to date, but China just surpassed our northern neighbor to become the biggest buyer of American crude in February. The FT reports:

To date, Canada has taken about half of the 239m barrels exported since the US ban was lifted, while China bought only 7 per cent, according to US census bureau data. But recent pipeline upgrades, and the surge in shale oil and gas production since the 2000s, has created ample supply and pushed output from Texas and Oklahoma into the Gulf Coast, depressing prices enough to justify the shipping cost to Asia. […]

Exports have begun flowing even as China goes head-to-head with the US as the world’s top oil importer. Within the next three to five years China is expected to become the world’s largest oil-refining nation, surpassing the US.

China has eyes on becoming the world’s biggest refiner of crude oil, and it knows that the United States is a much more reliable supplier than the Middle East. Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Institute for Energy Studies at Xiamen University, admitted as much to the FT, saying that “the Middle East is very risky, so we need to diversify, to look at all continents.”

This is an opportunity for the United States to help address its lopsided trade balance with China.

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April 6, 2017 at 08:50PM