THE COST AND BENEFIT OF THE GERMAN ENERGY TRANSITION

The German energy transition, initiated in 2000 by the EEG (Renewable Energy Sources Act), is celebrating its 25th anniversary this year. This is a good time to look at the intention, logic and results of this gigantic national project.  

Twenty-five years of German energy transition: a way not to go – Clintel

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January 15, 2025 at 01:37AM

French Nuclear: End of the Line?

“Construction of the advanced ‘European Pressurized Reactor’ (EPR) at Flamanville began in 2007. It was projected to come into service in 2012 at a cost of $3.4 billion. The final cost, according to (Électricité de France) is about $13.7 billion.”

Last month (December 21), the 1,600-MW Flamanville nuclear power plant near Normandy (below) began delivering electricity to the French and European grid. It became the first new unit in France’s once-aggressive nuclear power program since 1996. The new reactor becomes the 57th in the French fleet.

EDF (Électricité de France) the French state-owned electric utility, was once seen as at the forefront of nuclear power, ahead in many ways of even the U.S., which has had its own troubles moving beyond its initial nuclear boom times. No more.

Construction of the advanced “European Pressurized Reactor” or EPR at Flamanville began in 2007. It was projected to come into service in 2012 at a cost of €3.3 billion (or about $3.4 billion). The final cost, according to EDF, is about €13.3 billion ($13.7 billion).

EDF’s Generation 111+ EPR, originally designed by French nuclear developer Areva, has meant a world of trouble for France and some of the other nations that have bought the machines. The first two reactors went to China, where Taishan 1 and Taishan 2 went into service in 2018 and 2019 respectively. While the Chinese are opaque about their nuclear program, the two EPR reactors suffered severe construction delays, taking almost twice the 46 months Areva projected. Taishan 1 was shut down between July 2021 and August 2022 for repairs.

EDF’s EPR experience in Europe, where information is more available and reputable, has been worse. Finland contracted for an EPR its existing nuclear site on Olkiluoto Island. Construction began in 2005 with operation planned for 2009, Olkiluoto 3 went into service in 2023 after multiple problems. The final cost came in at over €11 billion ($11.5 billion), much of that absorbed by Areva.

In Britain, EDF’s British subsidiary is building the two-unit, 3,200-MW Hinkley Point C EPR project. Hinkley Point has suffered similar woes to the other EPR projects. A year ago, EDF announced that the price tag for the two units would hit £41.6-£47.9 billion ($52.3 billion-$60.2 billion), with the first unit coming online in 2029-2031. That remains speculative.

Despite these problems, France is doubling down on nuclear, with a new, scaled-down 1,200-MW EPR design, know as EPR2. In 2022, President Emmanuel Macron announced an aggressive “renaissance” of French nuclear ambitions, starting with construction of six EPR2 units at its Penly site in northern France and another six to follow elsewhere. In July 2023, EDF filed an application with French nuclear regulators for approval of two EPR2 units at Penly.

Macron’s nuclear optimism has generated skepticism (and his government is on shaky grounds, not apparently related to his nuclear enthusiasm).

Veteran French wind energy financier and commentator Jérôme Guillet, who publishes an eponymous Substack newsletter Jérôme à Paris, has doubts about the future of the nukes. He wrote before Dec. 21 that

this is the last gasp of nuclear – maybe some people hope to see Flamanville being finally connected to the grid in France, and multiple PR stunts by Microsoft, Amazon et al. (which are just announcements of developments, i.e. highly conditional commitments to purchase electricity) as the start of a renaissance for the sector, but it’s more like a last gasp – in fact 2024 is most likely the year where wind+solar overtook nuclear in the USA, as well as coal.

Flamanville, he writes, “is likely one of the last nuclear plants to be built in Europe. Hinckley Point may be completed at some point in the future in the UK, but even in France the next ones are in doubt, with decisions on future investments postponed. “By the time any new nuclear plant in the West gets built, the transformation of our power systems towards renewables dominance will be over.”

Jerome is also dismissive of the specter of furious growth in electric demand, which is fueling much of the nuclear boosterism. “Despite all the breathless announcements about AI and data centers,” he observes, “overall demand is mostly stable in the US (increasing by 2% in 2024 after decreasing by the same in 2023), and shrinking fast in Europe.” He concludes:

Some are blaming European deindustrialization (and collective suicide caused by crazy green policies and/or naivety about Russia, (even if these are two contradictory and inconsistent arguments) but the trend predates the war in Ukraine. The reality is that we are continuously improving industrial processes while moving towards services, and a service economy is less energy intensive than a more primitive one. Even in emerging markets energy intensity is going down fast.

————

This was originally posted at The Quad Report, the blog site of electricity expert Kennedy Maize.

The post French Nuclear: End of the Line? appeared first on Master Resource.

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January 15, 2025 at 01:09AM

Engines Galore Seek to Dethrone the BEV

By Duggan Flanakin

There are a plethora of new automobile engines their creators hope will capture the commercial marketplace in the near future. The engines are designed to run on methanol, ammonia, hydrogen, nitrogen, and (surprise?) lithium. Another company has a motor shaped like a donut that operates inside the wheels.

Hydrogen

The Indian state of Kerala is pioneering the use of “green” hydrogen in transportation. The Kerala Green Hydrogen Valley project, initiated by the Agency for New and Renewable Energy Research and Technology (ALERT), is creating a complete hydrogen value chain to showcase how hydrogen can reduce emissions across industries.

Kerala wants hydrogen-fueled, rather than battery-electric, heavy-duty trucks to replace diesel trucks, as they can travel long distances without sacrificing carrying capacity. The Kerala State Road Transport Corporation is focused on hydrogen buses. The Kochi Water Metro project has included hydrogen boats as part of an integrated transport system.

Despite these grandiose plans, India will need hydrogen refueling infrastructures which cost an estimated US$2 million per station – far above the cost of installing charging stations for battery-electric vehicles. Heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell systems also need improvements.

The U.S. Department of Energy recently boasted that a hydrogen-powered truck traveled over 1,800 miles on a single fill-up of hydrogen fuel. The truck – the H2Rescue – is a prototype developed by DOE in partnership with the U.S. Army, the Department of Homeland Security, FEMA, the Naval Research Lab, and Accelera by Cummins. No word yet when or even whether the experimental truck will be placed into real-world service.

The truck, powered by a Cummins Accelera hydrogen fuel cell engine paired with a 250-kilowatt traction motor, is being designed for use in emergency response, military, and utility scenarios. With an initial 386 pounds of hydrogen in its tanks, the truck traveled California roads during rush-hour traffic at speeds between 50 and 55 miles per hour.

Methanol

German engine manufacturer MAN Energy Solutions is developing a new dual-fuel methanol engine for the maritime industry. The MAN 175 DF-M is expected to be available for retrofitting into its successful MAN 175D high-speed engine by the end of 2026. Caterpillar Marine is also working on a dual-fuel methanol engine model set for field tests in 2026.

MAN’s dual-fuel engine is available in configurations with 12, 16, and 20 cylinders, each with an internal diameter of 175 mm for mechanical or electrical propulsion and onboard power generation with a power range between 1,500 and 2,000 rpm. The engine is optimized for ferries, offshore supply vessels, tugboats, and other working vessels. Customized versions can be fitted for superyachts and other marine applications.

The dual-fuel engine has already been awarded “fuel ready” certification from Det Norske Veritas, a global risk management and quality assurance organization based in Norway. The DNV certification affirms that the engine is optimized for diesel-electric and diesel-mechanical propulsion with the implementation of dual-fuel methanol technology.

Nitrogen

The Dearman Engine Company has been developing and researching a liquid nitrogen engine solution for over a decade. Beginning in 2014, DEC embarked on a project in collaboration with Ricardo, E4tech, MIRA, and leading British academic and research institutions to develop a zero-emission piston engine that runs on liquid nitrogen with the exhaust being cold air.

DEC says that liquid nitrogen’s benefits include its simple design with low production costs, as it utilizes most of the existing powertrain supply chain. The engine require minimal maintenance with no loss of capacity over its lifespan.

DEC claims that the energy provision of nitrogen engines is 700 times more powerful than that of hydrogen. Hydrogen engines use either combustion or electrochemical reactions, both of which must overcome problems with energy density and storage. But pressurized nitrogen turns turbines directly with minimum energy loss.

The nitrogen engine has zero tailpipe emissions and low overall greenhouse gas emissions, and its fast-refueling time is comparable to gasoline or diesel engines. The engine can harness waste heat from the coolant loop to integrate with other waste heat recovery systems; it can also provide both propulsion power and cooling.

DEC says this technology is highly relevant for industrial applications, mining, inland waterway applications, and the built environment. The only exhaust is cold air, conducted through the vaporization and expansion of cryogenic fluids. Ambient or low-grade waste heat is used as an energy source with the cryogen providing both the working fluid and heat sink.

Lithium

German researchers from the University of Kaiserslautern-Landau have introduced a prototype quantum engine powered by lithium. The engine operates by manipulating the quantum states of lithium atoms to generate energy.

Results of the university’s research highlight the engine’s potential to redefine energy production, opening doors to innovation like ultra-efficient quantum batteries that last longer and charge faster. This technology holds promise for applications beyond engines, potentially reshaping how energy is produced and consumed across industries.

For the engine to function effectively, lithium atoms must be maintained at temperatures nearing absolute zero to minimize thermal interference and ensure precise control over the quantum states. Magnetic fields shift atoms between the two quantum states of lithium atoms — fermion and boson states. This is the critical step in the energy conversion process.

Researchers found innovative ways to control the quantum states of fermions and bosons. Fermions cannot occupy the same quantum state simultaneously, but bosons can share identical states. The research uncovered a method to toggle between these states to optimize engine performance – yet to date, the prototype has achieved only a 25% efficiency rate, lower than that of conventional thermal engines.

The Donut Motor

Electric motor manufacturer Donut Lab has designed a donut-shaped in-wheel motor to power electric vehicles. The new motor has a big hole in the middle that allows it to fit perfectly into a wheel.

The donut motor fits into a 21-inch hoop, delivers up to 845 horsepower and 3,171 pound-feet of torque while weighing only 88 pounds. The resultant removal of drivetrain components, half-shifts, and other parts further reduces overall weight. With no motor housed in the vehicle’s body, there is extra space to increase seating area and cargo capacity.

Donut Lab claims its motors are up to 50% cheaper to manufacture, but the in-wheel motors make the wheels heavier than conventional wheels. This means they add unsprung mass (weight below the suspension) that can negatively impact handling and braking.

The company is also developing a version of its donut motor for semi-trucks that will provide 200 kW and 2,212 pound-feet of torque per wheel. The technology is already being used on the road in a few electric bicycles developed by Verge Motorcycles, Donut Lab’s parent company.

BMW, too, has developed its own in-wheel electric motor in partnership with Munich-based tech firm DeepDrive. The BMW in-wheel motor, currently in the testing phase, features a unique dual-rotor design.

This sampling barely scratches the surface of emerging automotive technology worldwide – but all of these reports were issued within a two-week period at the end of 2024. Innovation and free markets, not government mandates, continue to drive the future of transportation.

Duggan Flanakin is a senior policy analyst at the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow who writes on a wide variety of public policy issues.

This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and made available via RealClearWire.


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January 15, 2025 at 12:01AM

Joe Romm’s the Climate Ate My Homework! (re Southern California fires)

From MasterResource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

“In a rational and moral world, the catastrophe of the Los Angeles fires, fueled in part by climate change, would be one of many climate ‘Pearl Harbors’ that might help wake up the public to the urgent need for climate action.” (- Joe Romm, last week)

“Is it just a coincidence that the worst of the worst happened in California, the Climate State? The Green State? The DEI State? Joe, the mainstream is not buying your ‘Climate Ate My Homework’ reasoning.” (below)

Just add “policy” in two places in Romm’s quotation above, and substitute “inaction” for “action” at the end, and his conclusion can be fixed. But who is Joe Romm? And what is his track record? I have tangled with Angry Joe for decades (I am a ‘sociopath’ to him) and can address these questions.

Who Is Joe Romm?

Joe Romm has been a trenchant voice for climate alarm and forced energy transformation (wind, solar, batteries, efficiency) for many decades. [1] I have challenged him ever since the 1990s when his energy-efficiencies dreams led him to praise Enron (“a company I greatly respect”) and its most fraudulent division, Enron Energy Services.

I continued to spar with him until the ‘indispensible blog‘ Climate Progress (Center for American Progress) went defunct. (My suspicion is that his emotional, virulent style–“stunning” for the liked; “heads exploding” for the disliked–grew tiresome.)

His exaggerations are legion, including We Don’t have 12 Years to Save the Climate. We Have 14 Months, (July 2019). But go back to his “Mideast Oil Forever?” (The Atlantic Monthly, April 1996), analyzed here, where Joe (and his coauthor Charles Curtis) stated:

… let’s start by examining the likelihood that an oil crisis will occur in the coming decade. Forecasting is always risky, especially where oil is concerned, but consider what a variety of experienced energy hands from every point on the political spectrum have said in the past year alone [many experts quoted–all errant].

That “energy crisis” never happened except for government energy/climate policy increases prices and reducing reliability. The first two oil crises came from price and allocation controls–the third never came from an absence of the same.

And in Romm’s 2007 book, Hell and High Water:

We have no room for error…. Barring a major reversal in U.S. policies in the very next decade, come the 2020s, most everyone will know the grim fate that awaits the next fifty generations. [The alternative to inaction] is a [later] massive, sustained government intervention into every aspect of our lives on a scale that far surpasses what this country did during World War II.

Joe Romm Today

Joe Romm is an expert! Currently a senior research fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media (PCSSM), Romm describes himself as

Former Acting Assistant Secretary of Efficiency and Renewables, Speaker, 2x TEDx, author, “The Hype About Hydrogen.” Economist Paul Krugman: “I have learned a lot of what I know about energy economics from Joe Romm.”

And:

2024 Ban Ki-Moon Award for Environmental Leadership, 2009 TIME magazine “Hero of the Environment” & Rolling Stone one of “100 people reinventing America.” Former Acting Assistant Secretary of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. CNN host Van Jones called me “The communicator’s communicator” after reading my book “How to Go Viral and Reach Millions.” Bill McKibben said, “Joe Romm understands the secret of making things go viral.”

And:

Author of 10 books, including “Climate Change: What Everyone Needs to Know” (Oxford University Press) which New York magazine called “The best single source primer on the state of climate change.”

Never shy, often wrong. Romm’s professional life is as an expert versus the ill-informed public. The premise of climate alarmism and wind/solar/energy/efficiency to save the planet from fossil fuels (really CO2, the nonpollutant) is Romm’s multi-decade theme.

The Latest?

“In a rational and moral world,” Romm states regarding the southern California fire box,

the catastrophe of the Los Angeles fires, fueled in part by climate change, would be one of many climate “Pearl Harbors” that might help wake up the public to the urgent need for climate action. But in our world, the initial flame of disinformation that the fossil fuel companies lit over half-century ago to delay action on climate change has spread like wildfire until it’s a firestorm of falsehoods.

What disinformation! Is it just a coincidence that the worst of the worst happened in California, the Climate State? The Green State? The DEI State? Joe, the mainstream is not buying your “Climate Ate My Homework” reasoning.

Appendix: Romm in Action

“What Is the Difference Between a Psychic and a Climate Science Denier” (March 25, 2014), (expunged, but reviewed here)

I know what the similarities are between psychics and deniers. They both use unscientific methods, generally make stuff up with no evidence to support their views, and have consistently been debunked when scrutinized. What is the difference between a psychic and a climate science denier? In fairness, psychics sometimes guess the right answer.

Earth Day post:

With 7 billion people going to 9 billion, much of the environment is unsavable … the relatively stable environment and climate that made modern human civilization possible will be ruined, probably for hundreds of years … with permanent Dust Bowls in Southwest and around the globe. And that means misery for many if not most of the next 10 to 20 billion people to walk the planet (expunged, but reviewed here).

Enough said … for now.

—————–

[1] Romm, on the other hand, correctly dismisses new nuclear capacity, hydrogen, and carbon capture & storage. He also calls a spade a spade when it comes to the failure of climate mitigation policies. But climate alarm and industrializing the living space with wind, solar, and batteries–and energy-usage bans–is where this authoritarian lives.


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January 14, 2025 at 08:04PM