From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/mexico
While Miliband wants to lead us over the cliff, the rest of the world is just getting on as normal.
Mexico is another country which continues to increase emissions. Even their Paris NDC was explicit about this, as it pledged only to cut emissions from a theoretical Business as Usual scenario. The resulting targeted emissions in 2030 would be higher than they were in 2015!
Since then, Mexico has upped the reduction from 22% to 35%, but as Climate Action Tracker point out, they have also upped the BAU:
Mexico’s climate policies continue to go backwards, as fossil fuel use is prioritised and climate-related policies and institutions dismantled. Mexico’s updated 2030 target (NDC), submitted in November 2022 results in higher emission levels than the targets from 2016, breaching both agreements under the Paris Agreement and Mexican Law – where governments committed to improve their targets over time. The updated NDC lacks transparency and disguises its lack of ambition by counting forests differently in the base and in the target year. Mexico will meet the unambitious target with already implemented policies as emissions continue to rise through 2030. With this update, the CAT’s rating of Mexico’s climate targets and action worsens from “Highly insufficient” to “Critically insufficient”.
While the new target includes a larger percentage reduction it still leads to higher emissions. The NDC update increases the percentage reduction of the unconditional target from 22% to 35% (30% with own resources and an additional 5% from agreed international support) by 2030 and from 36% to 40% conditional on additional international support. But the business-as-usual (BAU) baseline, against which the targets are defined, has been revised upwards. In addition Mexico expects a higher contribution of emissions sinks in forests to achieving the target. Together this means that the new target can be met even if emissions excluding those of forestry are higher than what they could have been under the old target.
The 2022 NDC update replaces the 2020 update, which became invalid after a Mexican court found that it is less ambitious than the very first NDC of 2016 and therefore a violation of continuous progression of ambition. The 2022 update is less specific on the contribution of forestry to the target, which may make it more difficult to argue its ambition.
Mexico pursues a “gross-net” approach, meaning it counts only emissions sources in its BAU, ignoring sinks from land use and forestry. However, the NDC does intend to use these sinks to achieve the target, highlighting that nature-based solutions are ‘central’ to achieving the targets. In 2019, reported sinks were almost 200 MtCO2e, or about a quarter of Mexico’s emissions excl. land use, land use change and forestry. While technically allowed, this accounting approach has been criticised as in-transparent for over 20 years.
Mexico’s 2022 NDC update removes the target to peak emissions in 2026 and does not mention any net zero nor other long-term targets.
https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/mexico
In terms of just CO2, it is evident that Mexico never had any intention of cutting emissions:
BP Energy Review
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
via Watts Up With That?
January 3, 2025 at 08:07AM
