Vauxhall’s Luton Dilemma

By Paul Homewood

 

A bit more detail on Vauxhall’s decision to close their Luton factory, which only makes vans:

 

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https://www.vauxhall.co.uk/vans/all-new-vivaro/electric.html

The above, which still appears on their website, confirmed their original plan to make Vivaro electric vans at Luton, alongside diesel vans.

So what has changed?

According to SMMT data, 5367 electric Vauxhall vans were registered in the year to June 2024. Stellantis also say they sold 34632 vans in total in the UK. Although the periods overlap, this would imply an electric ratio of about 15%, well above this year’s LEV mandate of 10%:

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https://www.media.stellantis.com/uk-en/vauxhall/press/vauxhall-is-the-uk-s-best-selling-electric-van-manufacturer-for-third-year-in-a-row

 

On the face of it then, Vauxhall won’t have to pay any fines. However the real problem seems to be that the mandate will rapidly rise from next year.

image

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/manufacturer-news/2023/09/21/zev-mandate-electric-vehicle-targets-to-remain-for-carmakers

It would appear that Vauxhall don’t believe they can hit these targets going forward, and it is easy to see why. Across the market as a whole, electric vans have only penetrated 5.6% this year, even less than last:

image

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/lcv-registrations/ 

 

And why, other than a few niche applications, would any business buy one?

The Vivaro Diesel as an OTR price of £35010, but the electric is priced at £51715.

Most vans tend to do high mileage, so after three or four years, the electric will be worthless on the second hand market, unlike the diesel which will probably be worth a grand or two:

image

image

The electric has a claimed range of 215 miles, but in the real world, with a full load, will probably struggle to do 100 miles. This immediately rules it out for many businesses. I know our van at work would occasionally do more than that in a day. Its typical run was around South Yorkshire, and that could easily entail at least 70 or 80 miles.

An electric van will simple not have the same productivity as a diesel for most applications. In short, while a diesel might do 100 drops a day, and electric might only manage 50. You would therefore need twice as many vans and drivers!

Then there is the issue of where and how you recharge overnight.

When all things are considered, businesses know what is best for them. And so far they have made it clear that they won’t buy electric.

Which brings us back to Vauxhall.

To meet a target of 46% electric in four years time, they must either sell a lot more electric vans, or sell fewer diesel.

And if they sell fewer diesels, that leaves Luton, which makes all the diesel Vivaros, without enough work to be viable. Ellesmere Port, which only makes electric, will take over Luton’s existing electric van work.

The ultimate irony here is that imports of vans and cars are not subject to the ZEV mandate. So Stellantis can instead push French made Citroen vans into the UK market and avoid fines.

As the Vauxhall blurb notes, they are the only van brand made in the UK. Luton’s departure from the scene will simply open the door to vans like the Ford Transit, which is made in Spain and Turkey.

And I can confidently predict that next year, electric van sales will still be in the doldrums, despite Ed Miliband’s crazed policies.

FOOTNOTE

Ford have a range calculator for the Transit, which reduces range to just 91 miles in cold conditions:

 

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November 28, 2024 at 08:54AM

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November 28, 2024 at 08:41AM

“Siberia will become the greatest farming country in the world”

“One of the greatest scientists in the world is Arrhenius of Sweden. He is a chemist and physicist, and has studied this matter. He shows that this proportion of carbon dioxide in the air will make the climate warmer, by acting like the glass roof of a green house. With the carbon dioxide increased from two and one-half to three times, the temperature of the whole world will be raised 8 to 9 degrees centigrade—and Greenland will have a good climate for farming. All the good soil of Canada will be in as temperate a climate as that now enjoyed by Missouri.

Corn will be grown in the Peace River Valley. Oranges will be an orchard fruit in Arkansas and Virginia. The suburban residents of Chicago may literally sit under their own fig trees and scuppernong grape arbors. Cotton will be a stable crop in Iowa. Bananas will fringe the shores of the Gulf. Siberia will become the greatest farming country in the world. The great Antarctic continent—one of the greatest on earth in extent—will be the Western Canada, the Scandinavia, the Siberia of that day, and will have millions of people. Alaska will be as warm as Maine now is. And the heat of all the tropics will be made hotter for thousands of years.”

January 28, 1913

The Pueblo Leader – Google News Archive Search

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November 28, 2024 at 08:08AM

Meet the Woman so Afraid of Climate Change She Made Her Husband Get the Snip and Refuses to Have Children

From THE DAILY SCEPTIC

by Sallust

The Mail has published an article by a businesswoman in her 30s who has vowed not to start a family. She has even persuaded her husband to have a vasectomy after doctors refused to sterilise her. Such decisions are anyone’s free choice, and for any reason they wish, but in this case the claimed reason turns out to be climate change:

For how can I bring an innocent warm bundle into the world when none of us can say that the world will even be habitable for them? In the past few weeks, two new sets of statistics have emerged – the first to widespread hand-wringing; the second to barely a whimper.

The first showed that the U.K. birth rate has fallen to its lowest level since records began. Between 2022 and 2023, the fertility rate for England and Wales decreased from an average of 1.49 children per woman to 1.44 –the lowest rate on record and far fewer than are needed to sustain an ageing population.

And the second set of stats? Those were the ones telling us that 2024 is “virtually certain” to be the hottest year on record, according to the European Climate Service.

A year punctuated by deadly heatwaves and catastrophic storms will end up 1.5°C hotter than pre-industrial levels, and for the first time breach the symbolic point beyond which we stop being able to avoid the most disastrous consequences of climate change – a series of knock-on effects which could see the widespread extinction of animal species and even wipe us out.

For me these two statistics are not unrelated. Raising a human being in today’s world is hard. As reasons not to do it, women cite childcare costs, the hit they’ll take to their career and the difficulty in finding a decent man to have a baby with. As a happily married businesswoman with her own sales company, those reasons don’t apply to me.

She doesn’t pull her punches:

I won’t have a child because of the threat posed by climate change.

Those world leaders who gathered in Azerbaijan for the COP29 climate conference last week should know that women like me aren’t having babies because we are too worried that adding to the global population will simply hasten its demise.

Whenever anyone asks me about my childlessness, I tell them the truth and make no apologies for sounding curt. “Why bring children into a world when we don’t know if it’s going to exist in 100 years?”

The most common answer to this always astounds me: “Oh well, it doesn’t matter to me because I won’t be here then!” It’s such a selfish attitude.

Why have children to fulfil a biological need then not care that the world they will inhabit looks increasingly likely to resemble some post-apocalyptic wasteland? The seas barren, the skies raging, the deserts spreading and no way to turn back this ecological disaster.

I have long been terrified of what the future holds. From the age of six I had recurring nightmares in which I’d find myself being pulled through a hole in the sky, my little body shooting up into space.

It seems she’s not alone:

I am just one woman but my decision is not an especially rare one. One U.S. poll found a quarter of adults without children say climate change is part of the reason – while, in 2021, analysis by a global bank found the decision “to not have children owing to fears over climate change is growing and impacting fertility rates quicker than any preceding trend in the field of fertility decline”.

The U.K.-based BirthStrike Movement comprises women who refuse to procreate “to spare [their] child from a dystopian existence”.

Dismissing any arguments for having children as “selfish” (presumably having children in the pre-modern era when they faced the prospect of high infant mortality, disease, disaster and revolution was unconscionably selfish too, and perhaps more so), she takes care to let the Mail’s readers know how she’s doing her bit to stop Britain turning into a boiling and barren desert:

I’m careful to buy my godchildren sustainable gifts, from local businesses in North Yorkshire where I live. I try to do things with my godchildren that teach them to value the beauty in nature, like long walks and collecting shells at the beach. I grow my own veg and I support local producers whenever I can.

Every day I try to do something to help. I use a lower temperature on my washing machine, drive an electric car and scrupulously recycle. I use Vinted instead of buying new clothes and I have a rescue dog. My entire business is digital: we avoid printing anything and send all documents and contracts digitally. I use public transport to travel to business events.

In a curious twist, she’s worried about the impact of making a decision like hers on her own old-age care:

In fact, who will look after my generation as a whole if there aren’t enough young people to pay for pensions and the NHS?

Economists say the plummeting birth rate spells serious trouble for supposedly selfish women like me, whose fault it is.

But if falling birth rates are worrying political leaders, perhaps they should do something to address it by ramping up our response to climate change.

It’s not the job of younger people solely to fund the elderly (I’ve worked from the age of 16 and take full responsibility for my retirement income) but in any case, whether the state pension keeps pace with inflation may well be the least of our concerns when Norfolk and the Thames estuary are under water and wildfires are raging across our national parks.

The argument seems to be that if governments fall over themselves to devote their every waking minute to preventing climate change, then women like her might have children after all. Perhaps. Or perhaps there’s a subtext. Who knows?

The article is a fascinating insight into the psychological effects of state-sponsored fearmongering, resulting in potentially the greatest catastrophe of all: a culture of total negativity. One wonders why she bothers to go to work, which incidentally appears to be about helping other companies sell more stuff.

Worth reading in full if only to see just how nihilistic the culture of climate change has become.

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November 28, 2024 at 08:03AM