Mining Industry Needs $2.1 Trillion Dollars in New Investment to Meet Net-Zero Demand for Raw Materials

By Paul Homewood

 

Just another trillion or two!

 

 

 

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Despite the growth in metals supply over the last decade, BloombergNEF’s (BNEF’s) annual Transition Metals Outlook finds that there are still not enough raw materials to meet growing demand. This supply squeeze could slow the adoption of clean energy technologies. In order to meet the demands of a net-zero emissions world, BNEF estimates $2.1 trillion is needed in new mining investments by 2050.

The report indicates that key energy transition metals such as aluminum, copper and lithium could face deficits in primary supply this decade – some as soon as this year. According to BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) – which is driven by the cost competitiveness of technologies and assumes no new policy support – the world could require 3 billion metric tons of metals between 2024 and 2050 to properly build out low-carbon solutions such as electric vehicles, wind turbines and electrolyzers. That number rises to 6 billion tons to reach net zero in 2050.

Kwasi Ampofo, head of metals and mining at BNEF and lead author of the report said, “the prolonged deficit of these metals will lead to higher prices for raw materials, which increases the cost of clean energy technologies. High costs could slow their adoption, and the energy transition at large”.

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November 4, 2024 at 11:51AM

A Greek mountain could help solve the mystery of cloud formation


A pity this wasn’t done earlier, before climate alarm took off. But better late than never, if useful results can be obtained. It’s noted that ‘human made particles generally have a cooling effect on the climate.’
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On the rocky slopes high above lush pine forests and mountain lakes, a group of researchers have just finished setting up their gear, says Phys.org.

Even though the weather at sea level is a comfortable 21 degrees, the researchers need their warm clothes. The temperature rarely climbs above 10 degrees at the top this time of the year.

The mountain is Mt. Helmos on the Greek island of Peloponnese. The rocky peak is already home to an observatory, but in the last couple of weeks new scientific equipment has started claiming more and more space up there.

What the researchers hope to do is solve the mystery of cloud formation and changes in cloud properties.

In the quest to better understand how the climate of the Earth works and is shaped by humans, knowing exactly how clouds are formed and respond to human activities are essential.

But to this day, a lot of details about clouds are unknown, explains Ulas Im, senior researcher at the Department of Environmental Science at Aarhus University.

“Understanding cloud formation is essential to make projections like the one thousands of scientists create every five to seven years, when a new IPCC report comes out. Clouds are the biggest uncertainty of the climate projections in these reports. That is why we are trying to better understand them,” he says.

Together with colleagues from all over Europe, Ulas Im is in the center of a giant research project called Clean Cloud. The idea is to learn more on how clouds and particles in the atmosphere interact, using ground-based and satellite observations, laboratory experiments and models.

To do this, large field experiments are planned in the European climate hotspots: The Arctic and the Mediterranean.
. . .
No clouds without particles
The instruments on the mountain top will soon be immersed in clouds. This enables Ulas Im and his colleagues to study how small particles in the air affect cloud formation.

Because, as he explains, particles are the key to understanding clouds. Without particles like dust, pollen, bacteria and exhaust from cars and factories there would be no clouds.

“The basic idea is that you always have water vapor in the atmosphere. Dust or other particles provides a surface for the water vapor to condense on. When the water condenses on these particles they form the cloud droplets,” he says.

But not all particles seed new clouds. Some particles change the characteristics of the clouds instead.

“Clouds have droplets that are liquid or ice. Some clouds are only liquid droplets. A large fraction of clouds are both. Mineral dust or biological particles like pollen are efficient in making ice in the clouds. Without these the temperature required for the droplets to freeze would be much lower.

“With more ice crystals, clouds become transparent to sunlight, which then reach the Earth’s surface. However, with global warming, we move from ice to more liquid clouds. This is important because clouds with more liquid droplets reflect more of the sunlight back into space and this could affect the temperature on Earth.”

Full article here.

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November 4, 2024 at 11:45AM

Hartpury College DCNN 4938 – Mean Measurement Mayhem.

51.90437 -2.31251 Met Office Assessed CIMO Class 4 Installed 1/11/1998

Hartpury College is a large multi discipline campus that majors on agriculture, veterinary, equestrian and related subjects. Situated close to Gloucester it looks to have one of the most attractive and well equipped campuses of any educational establishment in the country.

Such an emphasis on outdoors related industries naturally led to the installation of a weather station with observations manually taken by a mixture of staff and students. Clearly a site where an understanding of meteorology is a highly relevant part of most curricula. Sadly, weather recording does not seem to be as high on the agenda as it should be………

Firstly the site is rated Class 4 as it is largely surrounded by shrubbery and changeable vegetation typical of agricultural college sites. Shading is not a highlighted issue by the Met Office as the larger trees are to the north and unlikely to cause that problem. Class 4 seems most appropriate, but this does not appear to be a “bad” site and certainly fit for its intended purpose of local conditions reporting.

Problems, however, become noticeable when studying the site’s archived records . There are multiple notes under “Remarks” relating to lack of observations and loss of data. Under Freedom of Information request I obtained mean daily average temperatures for all manual and automatic Met Office weather stations in England for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. In addition to these (presumably arithmetic) “means”, the number of “observation days” was supplied. For automatic stations these obs days are nearly always 365 with a few sites occasionally missing a few days presumably due to technical issues. For manually reporting stations the number of obs days was entirely dependent on the local observers actually attending. For these latter stations the total obs days were hugely variable as I highlighted in the case of Mickleham. Some sites have abysmal records such as Amersham Field Centre which only managed 149 obs days over the entire 3 year (1,095 day) period.

Hartpury College should have been a good example of high reading frequency given the subjects relevance – it was not. The list below is the start of those manually reporting stations for 2021.

The most notable part of Hartpury’s data for 2021, compared to the others, is not only its poor reporting numbers – just 85 out of 365 – but that the Met Office still saw fit to derive an annual mean from such partial data. Bizarre as this fulfillment of a function was (and regardless of how completely ridiculous the derived figure must inevitably be) it produced the UK highest annual daily mean at 13.7°C for 2021……and the Met Office recorded and subsequently released the data.

And the following year a similar outcome. Just 97 readings and the UK hot spot yet again this time at 14.4°C.

Did nobody at the Met Office consider that this highest UK recorded annual daily mean might not be correct? For 2023 the situation changed – more readings, presumably over different periods produced a completely different result.

I contend that if manual weather stations fail to record on an adequate number of days per year then the limited data that is produced should be disregarded in its entirety. Clearly as demonstrated above partial figures will only produce absurd and completely irrelevant data. Hartpury College weather station, for whatever reasons, is somewhat surprisingly consistently failing to meet acceptable reporting standards. In the absence of any improvement its readings should be expunged from archives where it has previously failed to meet requirements. This represents poor standards and somewhat bizarre statistical (mis)representation from the Met Office and really does need to stop..

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November 4, 2024 at 10:12AM

Tuesday

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November 4, 2024 at 10:01AM