The whys of the hurricane season so far

The Impact "Scoreboard" so far has us at a record tying amount of hurricanes that have hit the US thru September 4th. 

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September 29, 2024 at 11:59PM

State Courts Should Not Be Writing US Climate Laws

Judges shouldn’t write laws that anti-fossil fuel factions can’t get Congress and People to enact

Paul Driessen

Earth’s climate has changed numerous times over the past half-billion years. But activists claim any recent or future changes result from fossil fuel use and agricultural practices.

Those activities raise still minuscule levels of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide (0.04, 0.0002 and 0.00003 percent of the atmosphere, respectively), allegedly altering climate and weather. Water vapor, Earth’s complex and chaotic climate system, and powerful solar and cosmic forces that combined to bring the Carboniferous Period (coal age), ice ages, a Little Ice Age, warm periods, and fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are supposedly no longer relevant.

UN, US and EU climate activists, politicians and bureaucrats then blame fossil fuels for heat waves, cold spells, hurricanes, wildfires, floods, droughts and even abusive husbands. Kamala Harris says manmade climate change forced millions of illegal migrants to cross our borders since 2021.

Despite all this, the climate consortium has failed to get enforceable, workable international treaties that compel all countries to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It’s failed to get the US Congress to enact national legislation – or make a convincing, robustly debated case that reducing a few GHGs can stabilize planetary temperatures and climate conditions that have never been stable.

So the consortium employs other devious strategies: regulating fossil fuel technologies and agricultural practices into oblivion; ignoring the 63% of global GHGs that come from China, India and a hundred other developing countries; and censoring and silencing experts and talk show hosts who present inconvenient facts, data and analyses.

Climate activists are also filing lawsuits in state courts against eight US oil companies whose products together account for a tiny fraction of the 11% of global GHGs emitted by the United States.

Nearly three dozen ultra-progressive jurisdictions want friendly in-state judges to decide complicated issues that arise from and affect every family, business, city, state and country on Earth. Instead of scientific and legislative debates and processes, they want one judge punishing energy companies for causing “dangerous climate change.”

The litigants claim they’re trying to save our planet from climate cataclysms. Their real goal is reducing our driving, flying, household heating and cooling, red meat consumption, living standards and free speech rights, even if doing so has minimal or no effect on emissions or the climate.

They want to avoid higher-profile federal courts that would more likely examine their far-fetched claims from national, international, scientific and economic perspectives. They’re worried that the US Supreme Court may decide whether far-left cities or states can circumvent legislative processes and instead use state courts to impose radical environmental and social agendas.

There is nothing ethical, legal or constitutional about this crony forum-shopping and backroom dealing. That’s another reason the plaintiffs panicked about the Supremes’ potential intervention, and argue that state judges can competently litigate the matter.

To ensure judicial “competence,” the Environmental Law Institute launched a parallel effort, the Climate Judiciary Project (CJP), to ensure that judges receive an “authoritative, objective and trusted education on climate science, the impacts of climate change, and the ways climate science is arising in the law.”

Of course, as Humpty Dumpty would have told Alice, when the CJP uses a word (like authoritative, objective, trusted, science or justice), it means just what they choose it to mean, neither more nor less, because the ultimate question is who is to be master – activist litigators and judges, or We the People and our elected representatives.

Raising even more questions, the CJP is funded by the same outfits that finance these climate lawsuits. The JPB Foundation gave $1 million to the CJP and $1.15 million to the far-left Tides Foundation’s Collective Action Fund, which pays the Sher Edling law firm to file lawsuits like these. The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation donated $500,000 to the CJP and $150,000 to the Action Fund. And so on.

The left knows their political ploy will tumble if the highest court in the land reviews the cases. That would be bad for them but good for our system of checks and balances, for common sense, and especially for reliable, affordable energy, jobs, healthcare and modern living standards.

Over 80% of our energy still comes from oil, gas and coal. Wind and solar are notoriously unreliable, require expensive backup power, and need a dozen times more raw materials per unit of electricity than natural gas generators. They cannot provide petrochemical products, including clothing, cosmetics, fertilizers, paints, plastics, pharmaceuticals and wind turbine blades.

“Renewable” energy is not clean, green, renewable or sustainable. Manufacturing batteries for electric vehicles and grid backup involves mining for numerous metals and minerals, in energy-intensive processes that destroy habitats, pollute air and water, and injure and poison miners and their families.

Much of that mining occurs in countries with corrupt governments and desperately poor families, like Congo and Myanmar where child and slave labor are pervasive. Ships haul the materials to China, the world’s largest polluter, which monopolizes the global battery production market and uses more coal, slave labor and pollution-intensive processes to produce “clean, green” energy products.

The EVs get marketed as “zero emission” vehicles, because there is no exhaust – and people don’t know this sordid history or that the electricity charging their batteries comes mostly from coal- or gas-fired power plants. And battery fires are furious and toxic.

Wind turbines also depend on oil, gas and coal for the metals and minerals in their towers and generators, fiberglass-and-epoxy blades and concrete-and-rebar bases. Solar panels blanketing hundreds of square miles of former cropland and wildlife habitat cause similar impacts. Sea-based wind turbines harm and kill wildlife, including endangered whales; land-based turbines kill millions of birds.

Pleadings and briefs in lawsuits brought in carefully chosen liberal state courts can ignore inconvenient facts like these, often preventing judges and juries from considering them.

They can target a few American oil companies for alleged climate cataclysms, while ignoring all other oil and coal companies worldwide, and countries that emit 89% of greenhouse gases. The state court lawsuits essentially and preposterously assert that production and refining processes used and products sold by these few oil companies are causing climate changes unprecedented in Earth and human history.

Recent Supreme Court decisions reveal why climate alarmists and rent-seekers are alarmed that the Court might intervene. West Virginia v. EPA held that, in the absence of clear legislative authority, government agencies cannot unilaterally issue regulations that have “major” economic or political significance.

Loper Bright Enterprises, Inc. v. Raimondo reversed the “Chevron deference” rule. Silent or ambiguous statutory texts no longer give administrative agencies unfettered power to interpret laws in ways that let them increase control over people’s lives and livelihoods.

Liberal state court decisions in these climate cases would have monumental consequences – for our environment, economy, lives and nation – despite Congress never having given any agency or court any such authority.

The Supreme Court should definitely intervene here – to ensure that these complex scientific, economic and political issues are fully studied, debated, vetted and voted on – not relegated to biased courtrooms.

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of books and articles on energy, environment, climate and human rights issues.

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September 29, 2024 at 08:06PM

Anthropocene: Cockroach of the Geologic Time Scale!

Guest “Zombie killing” by David Middleton

Geology says the Anthropocene is horst schist…

March 20, 2024

The Anthropocene

In 2001 the atmospheric chemist, Paul Crutzen, proposed that human activity was impacting natural environmental conditions to the extent that we had effectively left the natural stable conditions of the Holocene and moved into a new interval that he named the Anthropocene. In response to this suggestion, the Anthropocene Working Group (AWG) was established in 2009 on the initiative of Phil Gibbard (PLG: the then chair of the Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy; SQS). The remit of the Working Group was to examine the evidence for human induced climate change as reflected in the recent geological record, and to determine whether this was sufficiently compelling for a new stratigraphic unit to be included in the Geological Time Scale (GTS) and, if so, at what rank. The Working Group, initially led by Jan Zalasiewicz (JAZ) and latterly by Colin Waters (CW), deliberated for 15 years before finally submitting a report to the SQS in late October 2023.

[…]

Following standard ICS procedure, it was expected that there would be 30 days allotted for the discussion of the AWG proposal, to be followed by 30 days for voting. Because of a possible conflict of interest, JAZ and MAH recused themselves from the administration of the voting process (although both participated in the discussion), and the discussion and ballot were conducted by the 1st vice-chair Professor Liping Zhou (Beijing University: LPZ) and Professor Adele Bertini (University of Firenze: AB), and who ensured that the process adhered strictly to the rules of ICS. However, when the discussion period ended and the Secretary moved to call a vote, both JAZ and MAH objected saying that the discussion period had been of insufficient length and that additional information on the Anthropocene proposal had been excluded. This did not find favour with a substantial number of SQS members who were anxious to move forward to the ballot. In order to meet the request for more time, however, LPZ and AB agreed to extend the discussion period, which was initially expected to end in late December, until the end of January. Voting finally began on 4th February, in spite of further objections from JAZ and MAH based on their view that adequate time was not allowed for discussion. It ended on 4th March at which point the results were declared.

The outcome was a decisive rejection of the Anthropocene proposal: 4 votes in favour; 12 votes against; and 3 abstentions. Three members did not vote, including JAZ and MAH, who then began a campaign questioning the legitimacy of the vote on procedural grounds and alleged contravention the ICS statutes. It is important to stress that there was no question of impropriety against either LPZ or AB, both of whom acted with complete integrity throughout a difficult process and who carried out their duties fully in accordance with the statutory requirements of ICS. Nor can the integrity of the SQS membership be called into question. All who participated in the process are geological scientists of the highest calibre, from a range of countries, and with wide expertise in
Quaternary stratigraphy and chronology. It is clear from the comments that were made during the course of the discussion period, that many were unconvinced by the arguments in the AWG proposal, and their misgivings are clearly reflected in the decisive nature of the voting outcome.

The vote of the SQS has been recognized as valid by the ICS Executive, and that recognition has been near unanimously supported (15 yes, 1 abstention, 1 conflict of interest) by the chairs of the seventeen IUGS subcommissions, who are the ICS voting members. Although their proposal has been decisively rejected, the AWG has performed an important service to the scientific community by assembling a wide body of data on human impacts on global systems, and this database will be an essential source of reference well into the future. Moreover, the Anthropocene as a concept will continue to be widely used not only by Earth and environmental scientists, but also by social scientists, politicians and economists, as well as by the public at large. As such, it will remain an invaluable descriptor in human-environment interactions. But it will not be recognised as a formal geological term but will more usefully be employed informally in future discussions of the anthropogenic impacts on Earth’s climatic and environmental systems.

[…]

International Union of Geological Sciences

The PNAS paper cited In the I effing love science article features this graphic:

“Temporal changes in anthropogenic fingerprints per year per 100 records detected from global geological archives for the last 7,700 y. (A) Full-range record from 2050 BCE (not shown before 2500 BCE due to no fingerprints). (B) Enlarged record from 1750 to 2010 CE. The light blue line and dashed line denote the maximum values before 1750 CE and between 1750 and the 1930s. Temporal changes in anthropogenic fingerprints per year are shown in SI Appendix, Fig. S7. The original proxy records for detecting fingerprints are provided in Dataset S02 ” Kuwae et al., 2024

OK… Anthropocene: 1940-1980 RIP.

Next?

Reference

Kuwae M, Yokoyama Y, Tims S, Froehlich M, Fifield LK, Aze T, Tsugeki N, Doi H, Saito Y. Toward defining the Anthropocene onset using a rapid increase in anthropogenic fingerprints in global geological archives. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Oct 8;121(41):e2313098121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2313098121. Epub 2024 Sep 23. PMID: 39312679.

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September 29, 2024 at 04:06PM

Solar electricity production always highest during summer?

In previous post, I showed graphs presenting a comparison between the average daily production of intermittent energy sources and the average daily import/export balance over a one year period. Although this way of presenting is perfectly suitable to find the average relationship between the import/export balance and the production of solar and/or wind, it is of course a highly idealized situation that will hide the influence of intermittent electricity sources on the grid. Production of electricity by solar and wind doesn’t only vary during the day, but there is also seasonal variability involved.

This becomes clear when I repeat that exercise on a monthly basis instead of an annual basis. This is the monthly solar performance in 2023:

Chart027b: Belgium Solar vs Import/Export balance 2023 (monthly)

This graph shows that there is hardly any solar electricity production in the beginning of the year, it then increases in the first half of the year to decrease again in the second half to end at hardly any solar electricity production in December.

However, looking closer at this graph, the values of the months July and August don’t make much sense. Solar electricity production should be the highest in those two months, but that doesn’t seem to be the case here.

Generally, I expect January production the lowest of the year, then gradually increase until its peak in July to finally slowly tapering down back towards the minimum at the end of the year. However, the production in July is considerably lower than in June and August is roughly as low as July, followed by September that is higher than August. This is not as expected because at our latitude, July and August have the longest daytime of the year and that doesn’t match what is shown in that graph.

I initially assumed that this July-August dip might be the result of curtailment in the summer months, but then that didn’t seem right. It is mostly wind that is curtailed, not solar. That made me curious whether there was thát much more sunshine in July and August that it necessitated curtailment or whether there was just too much intermittent production relative to the demand.

I quickly found the sunshine hours of 2023 as compared to the average over the 1981 – 2010 and 1991 – 2020 reference periods:

Month Sunshine
hours
2023
Average
1981-2010 1991-2020
January 32.6 58.6 59.1
February 81.3 76.6 72.9
March 83.1 114.0 125.8
April 149.0 157.0 171.3
May 230.6 191.1 198.3
June 307.8 187.7 199.3
July 185.4 200.7 203.4
Augustus 181.4 189.5 192.5
September 194.1 143.0 154.5
October 107.7 112.6 112.6
November 37.3 66.3 65.8
December 20.0 45.1 49.1

This is how it looks as a graph.

Chart027c: Belgium Sunshine hours 2023

That explains a lot! Although the number of sunshine hours over the year seems slightly higher compared to the two reference periods, the distribution was rather different. The number of sunshine hours in May was quite higher than the average, but it was June that stuck out head and shoulders above the rest. July and August were both below average, followed by September that again was higher than average. May and June had the highest number of sunshine hours in 2023, instead of July and August as I would expect.

So, this aberration in the first graph in this post apparently is a combination of the well above average sunshine hours of May, June and September contrasting with the slightly below average number of hours of July and August, resulting in that production dip during those two summer months.

I also re-created the graph for wind:

Chart027b: Belgium Wind vs Import/Export balance 2023 (monthly)

Wind is much more stable over the year and there is slightly more wind in winter than in summer, therefore somewhat complementing solar (which is on average less present in winter and strongly present in summer). There are however exceptions. February is a winter month, so one would expect the production of electricity to be among the highest, yet this is not the case.

Wind is more stable because, give it enough time, surpluses and shortages will cancel each other out over the day. On the other hand, the sun will always be absent during the night and only present during the day, having its peak just after noon. That is what gives average solar electricity production that bell shape and average wind electricity production its rather stable trajectory.

Even in this highly averaged environment, it shows that solar and wind are intermittent and even general claims like there is more solar in summer months or there is more wind in winter months, don’t necessarily fly.

In this case, a lower production of solar electricity in July and August combined with low wind conditions might have been a good thing, at least from a balancing perspective (because of the traditionally low demand in this period). That is however not a given and the opposite (high demand combined with low production) could also be true.

Post Scriptum
The same exercise for solar and wind combined:

Chart027b: Belgium Solar+Wind vs Import/Export balance 2023 (monthly)

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September 29, 2024 at 03:50PM