What if Easter Island was a sustainable success story instead of an ecocidal disaster?

Easter Island

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By Jo Nova

It was always the Posterchild Catastrophe of Doomsters, but two new studies suggest Easter Island might be a story of  remarkable human achievement instead.

In environmentalist legends, Easter Island was The Ecocide: they built nearly 1,000 giant stone statues but stupidly chopped down all its trees, and died in horrible wars. It was the sorry tale of ecological collapse and deforestation that we could tell small children at bedtime. After the last trees were sliced and diced, a catastrophe of horrors surely followed as the population of 15,000 people ran out of food and no one could make a boat to escape. Obsidian flakes across the island were interpreted as weapons of war and one anthropologist claimed there was a huge civil war that ended in the battle of 1680. Environmental hell on Earth was here…

But new research on the genomes of some islanders suggests that the population was probably small all along. When the Europeans arrived there were only about 3,000 people, but a genetic analysis suggests there are no signs of a recent collapse in the population. Another study of the fields suggests they made some very sophisticated gardens, but only ever had fields big enough to sustain about 4,000 people. And the obsidian fragments were probably domestic tools.

Adding to the tale of remarkable survival,  apparently the inhabitants somehow managed to get to South America and collected some native Indian genes which they brought back. These survived on for another 15 to 20 generations.

So it may be that an isolated island of only 3,000 people was capable of feeding itself sustainably, somehow making huge statues, and also sailing 3,700 kilometres to South America and then finding their way back again. (Or maybe, wonders Jo, whether some South Americans just managed a one way trip? How would we know? — On that score, the authors of the Nature paper say they can’t tell genetically, but there is archaeological evidence and oral history of trans-Pacific contact from Polynesia right across to South America).

Famed Polynesian island did not succumb to ‘ecological suicide,’ new evidence reveals

Science

Most recently Carl Lipo, an archaeologist at Binghamton University, and his team used satellite imagery and machine learning to map the island’s rock gardens, a method of spreading rocks to improve soil productivity. In a paper in Science Advances in July, they concluded Rapa Nui’s agriculture was far less extensive, and its population smaller, than the “ecocide” theory had proposed. Although the ancient Rapanui did cut down most of the island’s trees, the deforestation did not trigger a cultural or population crisis, they say. “Their ability to adapt was successful,” Atallah Leiva says.

The farmers of Rapa Nui (Easter Island) used rocks to improve the soil:

While it is true that the small island — which is just 63 square miles (164 square kilometers), or slightly smaller than Washington, D.C. — has poor soil quality and limited freshwater resources, researchers have discovered that the story of the Rapanui is one of survival in challenging ecological conditions.

One method the Rapanui used to enhance the island’s volcanic soil was “lithic mulching,” or rock gardening, in which pieces of rock were added to cultivation areas to boost productivity. The rock gardens generated better airflow in the soil, helping mediate temperature swings and maintaining nutrients — including nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium — in the soil.

Yet another paper suggests that the banal truth of the deforestation was not because humans chopped them all down, but because the first settlers bought some rats:

What really happened to the trees

More recently, a picture has emerged of a prehistoric population that was both successful and lived sustainably on the island up until European contact. It is generally agreed that Rapa Nui, once covered in large palm trees, was rapidly deforested soon after its initial colonization around A.D. 1200. Although microbotanical evidence, such as pollen analysis, suggests the palm forest disappeared quickly, the human population may only have been partially to blame.

The earliest Polynesian colonizers brought with them another culprit, namely the Polynesian rat. It seems likely that rats ate both palm nuts and sapling trees, preventing the forests from growing back. But despite this deforestation, my own research on the diet of the prehistoric Rapanui found they consumed more seafood and were more sophisticated and adaptable farmers than previously thought.

The bottom line is that the genetic analysis only has about 15 samples from remains of Islanders of the 1800s and while the rock garden analysis used field trips they also relied on some satellites and AI, so no one really knows for sure. The catastrophist environmentalist story almost certainly ran away with itself, but there is an element of indigenous sainthood working the other way too:

“Working with Indigenous groups, we face so many tropes and outdated narratives that people keep perpetuating—even scientists,” says Kathrin Nägele of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, who wrote an accompanying commentary for Nature. “I hope this … ancient DNA [study] puts the last nail in the coffin of this [collapse] narrative.”

Most likely the Rapanui were remarkable survivors who were just as capable of screwing things up as any of us. Hopefully scientists will figure out what really happened, instead of beating us over the head with their favorite ideology.

Lord give us a dispassionate scientist…

REFERENCES

Davis et a (2024)  Island-wide characterization of agricultural production challenges the demographic collapse hypothesis for Rapa Nui (Easter Island),  Science Advances, 21 Jun 2024 Vol 10, Issue 25 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ado1459

Moreno-Mayar, J.V., Sousa da Mota, B., Higham, T. et al. Ancient Rapanui genomes reveal resilience and pre-European contact with the Americas. Nature 633, 389–397 (2024). https://ift.tt/sB1l9KJ

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September 19, 2024 at 05:30PM

Artemis I Demonstrated Adequate Radiation Shielding for Manned Lunar Missions

Guest “We already knew this from the Apollo Program” by David Middleton

NASA’s “crash test dummies” Helga and Zohar, along with an array of radiation instrumentation demonstrated that the Artemis spacecraft provides adequate shielding for short duration lunar missions. The results of these measurements were recently published in Nature.

a, Radiation instrumentation and phantoms inside Orion. These consist of the NASA HERA system, the ESA EAD system, as well as the NASA CAD and DLR M-42 instruments. The HERA system and the EADs were hard-mounted at various distinctly shielded locations in Orion. CAD and M-42 were placed on the front and back surfaces (skin) and inside (organs) (M-42) of the MARE phantoms (Extended Data Figs. 1–4). b, Placement of the instrumentation and hardware inside the Orion spacecraft. c, The Orion flight profile with respect to radiation for the NASA Artemis I mission. After launch at 06:47 UTC on 16 November 2022, Orion passed the inner (proton-dominated) and outer (electron-dominated) Earth radiation belts. Orion then ventured into interplanetary space dominated by GCRs. It passed the Moon twice on 21 November (first lunar fly-by at a distance of 130 km) and on 5 December (second lunar fly-by at a distance of 128 km). During these fly-bys, the Moon acts as a shield against GCRs. Orion re-entered Earth’s atmosphere over the South Pole and landed in the Pacific Ocean close to San Diego, California on 11 December 2022 at 17:40 UTC. Nature ISSN 1476-4687

The paper is open access, with the full text freely available. Here’s the abstract:

Abstract

Space radiation is a notable hazard for long-duration human spaceflight1. Associated risks include cancer, cataracts, degenerative diseases2 and tissue reactions from large, acute exposures3. Space radiation originates from diverse sources, including galactic cosmic rays4, trapped-particle (Van Allen) belts5 and solar-particle events6. Previous radiation data are from the International Space Station and the Space Shuttle in low-Earth orbit protected by heavy shielding and Earth’s magnetic field7,8 and lightly shielded interplanetary robotic probes such as Mars Science Laboratory and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter9,10. Limited data from the Apollo missions11,12,13 and ground measurements with substantial caveats are also available14. Here we report radiation measurements from the heavily shielded Orion spacecraft on the uncrewed Artemis I lunar mission. At differing shielding locations inside the vehicle, a fourfold difference in dose rates was observed during proton-belt passes that are similar to large, reference solar-particle events. Interplanetary cosmic-ray dose equivalent rates in Orion were as much as 60% lower than previous observations9. Furthermore, a change in orientation of the spacecraft during the proton-belt transit resulted in a reduction of radiation dose rates of around 50%. These measurements validate the Orion for future crewed exploration and inform future human spaceflight mission design.

George et al., 2024

Artemis II

Artemis II could launch as early as September 2025. The 10-day mission to orbit the Moon will be the first manned mission to the Moon since Apollo 17 in December 1972.

Artemis II Map
NASA
Artemis II will be the first flight with crew aboard NASA’s deep space exploration system: the Orion spacecraft, Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and the ground systems at Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida. During their mission, four astronauts will confirm all of the spacecraft’s systems operate as designed with people aboard in the actual environment of deep space, over the course of about a 10-day mission. The Artemis II flight test will pave the way to land the first woman and next man on the Moon on Artemis III.

The four-person crew will consist of:

  • Commander Reid Wiseman
  • Pilot Victor Glover
  • Mission Specialist Christina Koch
  • Mission Specialist Jeremy Hansen
The Artemis II crew is shown inside the Neil Armstrong Operations and Checkout Building at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida in front of their Orion crew module on Aug. 8, 2023. From left are: Jeremy Hansen, mission specialist; Victor Glover, pilot; Reid Wiseman, commander; and Christina Hammock Koch, mission specialist.
NASA/Kim Shiflett

The SLS rocket will blast off from Kennedy Space Center Launch Pad 39B.

NASA’s Space Launch System rocket carrying the Orion spacecraft launches on the Artemis I flight test, Wednesday, Nov. 16, 2022, from Launch Complex 39B at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. NASA’s Artemis I mission is the first integrated flight test of the agency’s deep space exploration systems: the Orion spacecraft, Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, and ground systems. SLS and Orion launched at 1:47 a.m. EST, from Launch Pad 39B at the Kennedy Space Center. Photo Credit: (NASA/Bill Ingalls)

Reference

George, S.P., Gaza, R., Matthiä, D. et al. Space radiation measurements during the Artemis I lunar mission. Nature (2024). https://ift.tt/3NgrWwn

Just in case it’s needed…

Comparison of lunar and terrestrial basalts. WUWT

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September 19, 2024 at 04:00PM

NASA Sea Level

When their sea level rise predictions were failing, US government agencies simply moved the goalposts, and made up fake data.

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September 19, 2024 at 02:04PM

SC-GHG: Weapon of Mass Social Destruction

A reminder that first there was Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) which purported to estimate future costs of damages from CO2 emissions. Now there is Social Costs of Green House Gases (SC-GHG) which ups the ante by adding purported damages from methane (CH4) and Nitrogen oxides (N2O). At the end of this post are references describing this sordid history.

Remember also the regulators game.  Regulations by far outnumber laws passed by congress, and they impose costs upon businesses and consumers of the targeted industries.  Instigating agencies justify their rules by claiming greater savings from preventing future damages.  So the higher the damages estimates the more intensive and expensive can be the regulations.

Mark Krebs provides a recent example of this in his Master Resource article Heat Pump Subsidies: Never Enough.  It reports on various machinations by the Biden/Harris regime to spend all the money they can on decarbonizing projects before their term ends.  As Biden himself said after terminating his re-election campaign:  We should have named the Inflation Reduction Act what it really was, the Green New Deal.

The article includes this quote from Competitive Enterprise Institute’s (CEI) regarding SCC (with my bolds):

Junk Science Behind Federal Appliance Regs About to Get Junkier

The Biden-Harris administration has embarked on a wave of anti-consumer home appliance regulations over the last several years. Each was justified in part by overblown claims of climate change benefits. And now, the Department of Energy (DOE) has proposed using a new methodology that would further inflate these hypothetical benefits to justify even worse regulations in the years ahead.

DOE is in the process of creating new energy use limits for stoves, dishwashers, furnaces, washing machines, water heaters, ceiling fans, refrigerators, and more. The agency always asserts that consumers experience net gains from these regulations, but CEI has filed comments highly critical of these rosy assumptions. In reality, such rules often raise the up-front costs of appliances more than is likely to be earned back in the form of energy savings. Some rules also compromise appliance choice, performance, and reliability.

But DOE’s fictitious consumer benefits are only part of the problem. CEI has also taken issue with the agency’s assertions that these regulations deliver quantifiable climate change benefits. For example, DOE’s costly 2023 final rule for residential furnaces was estimated by the agency to provide $16.2 billion worth of such benefits.

The agency arrives at this figure by calculating the reduced energy use attributable to the efficiency standards and then estimating the amount of greenhouse gas emissions avoided as a result – mostly carbon dioxide emitted to produce electricity at coal or natural gas-fired power plants. Then it multiplies the tons of emissions avoided by the calculated per unit dollar cost to society of such emissions.

Until now, DOE has relied upon the 2021 Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG 2021). IWG 2021 provides the agency with the per ton Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (SC-GHG) values.

Relying on IWG 2021 was bad enough, but in its most recent proposed rule for commercial refrigeration equipment DOE is switching to an updated 2023 version of SC-GHG provided by the Environmental Protection Agency.

The new methodology takes several already-dubious assumptions in IWG 2021 and stretches them further. For one category of commercial refrigeration equipment covered in the proposed rule, DOE calculates the climate benefits of $48-$320 million dollars under IWG 2021 but a whopping $564-$1,713 million under the new way. That’s around 5-10 times higher.

How Did They Weaponize SC-GHG?

Briefly recapping, the Obama WH activist bean counters pushed numbers around and came up with $51 per ton of CO2 emitted. Then Trump WH said more realistic interest rates give an SCC of $1 per ton CO2.  Then Biden/Harris came into power with a deluge of Excutive Orders (EO), including one that reset SCC at 51$  Maybe you recall scenes like this from early 2021:

That prompted ten states to file for an injunction against Biden’s EO 13990 which was granted by the federal District Court of Louisiana February 2022.  Manhattan Contrarian commented at the time (my bolds):

On taking office, the Trump administration took steps to neutralize the SCC, so that not much has been heard from it for a while. But Biden’s EO 13990 caused the Obama-era version to get re-instated. The Biden people claim that they are working on further tweaks to the regulations, but meanwhile a large group of Republican-led states went ahead and commenced litigation.

With a regulatory initiative obviously intended to force a gigantic transformation of the economy without statutory basis, the Biden people defended against the Complaint using every shuck and jive and technicality known to man. The SCC rules were not “final” because the administration was still working on a few more tweaks (and then a few more, and then a few more); the state plaintiffs lacked “standing” because the harm was to citizens rather than the state itself; and so forth. The court was having none of it.

The heart of the court’s decision is its determination that the SCC falls under the Supreme Court’s “major questions doctrine,” under which the bureaucracy cannot on its own authority impose “new obligations of vast economic and political significance” unless Congress “speaks clearly.” The states had identified some 83 pending projects involving something in the range of $447 and $561 billion dollars as affected by the SCC rule. That impressed the court as easily within the concept of “major questions.”

However in March 2022 the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals stopped the injunction, and in May 2022 the Supreme Court refused a request by plaintiff states to block EO 13990.

From Technical Support Document: Social Cost of Carbon, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide 2021

This table was the same one produced by Obama WH.  Note that at 5% discount rate, CO2 goes from $14 to $32 in 2050.  Obama era regulations presumed the 3% rate which results in $51 up to $85. Note the astronomical numbers for CH4 $1500 per ton up to $3100.  And N2O starts at $18,000 to $33,000.  Hide your cows and fertilizers!.  But that was not expensive enough for Team Biden/Harris .

From the EPA Report on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases: Estimates Incorporating Recent Scientific Advances 2023

So no more 5% rate, and the middle scale is 2% rather than 2.5%.  That starts at $190 per ton of CO2 up to $310 by 2050 and $410 in 2080.  CH4 on the same basis is $1600 to $4200 in 2050 up to $6800 by 2080.  Of course a ton of N2O is unaffordable at $54,000 up to $130,000.

In other words, this regime can regulate the hell out of appliance manufacturers and agricultural operations, among others, justified by such numbers. It started with gas stoves, but won’t end there.

Will anyone put a stop to them?

 

 

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September 19, 2024 at 01:14PM