By Paul Homewood
h/t Doug Brodie
Prof Michael Kelly is back with this damning analysis of Net Zero:
There is also a useful summary of his interview here.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
June 19, 2025 at 03:41AM
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness/Philip Bratby
The Earth could be doomed to breach the symbolic 1.5C warming limit in as little as three years at current levels of carbon dioxide emissions.
That’s the stark warning from more than 60 of the world’s leading climate scientists in the most up-to-date assessment of the state of global warming.
Nearly 200 countries agreed to try to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above levels of the late 1800s in a landmark agreement in 2015, with the aim of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change.
But countries have continued to burn record amounts of coal, oil and gas and chop down carbon-rich forests – leaving that international goal in peril.
"Things are all moving in the wrong direction," said lead author Prof Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds.
"We’re seeing some unprecedented changes and we’re also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well."
These changes "have been predicted for some time and we can directly place them back to the very high level of emissions", he added.
At the beginning of 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could only emit 500 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) – the most important planet-warming gas – for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C.
But by the start of 2025 this so-called "carbon budget" had shrunk to 130 billion tonnes, according to the new study.
That reduction is largely due to continued record emissions of CO2 and other planet-warming greenhouse gases like methane, but also improvements in the scientific estimates.
If global CO2 emissions stay at their current highs of about 40 billion tonnes a year, 130 billion tonnes gives the world roughly three years until that carbon budget is exhausted.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4l927dj5zo
The BBC are still under the illusion that the Paris Agreement in 2015 was ever going to make the slightest bit of difference to anything.
It was obvious at the time that global emissions would carry on rising, because China, India and all of the other developing were not put under any obligations to do so.
And if GHG emissions had been cut to near zero, as these climate scientists demand, we would already be back in the dark ages.
These so-called scientists cannot even get their facts right. According to the BBC, they claim that “The rate of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, raising the risks of flooding for millions of people living in coastal areas worldwide.”
This is an outright lie, as there has been little change in trends since the late 1880s:
There is not the slightest evidence that global temperatures now are any higher than many other periods in recent human history, or that the climate is any worse than in pre-industrial, Little Ice Age times.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
June 19, 2025 at 03:30AM
Something is seriously amiss when: ‘If France hadn’t shut off its connection to Spain’s cascading problems, all of Europe could have shut down.’ Net zero mania is a disorder of the mind, or of government minds at least, that urgently needs correcting. In the critical moment, batteries of course proved useless. Ditching dispatchable power is like sawing off the tree branch you’re sitting on.
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Updated Man of La Mancha lyrics could read: “To dream the impossible dream of clean, green, net-zero electricity, to fight the unbeatable foe of manmade climate cataclysms, we must run where the brave dare not go”, writes Paul Driessen @ CFACT.
Don Quixote saw windmills as malevolent and dangerous dragons. Spain’s governing classes view them from the Chinese perspective: benevolent and magical dragons.
They’ve erected over 22,000 gigantic windmills to harness the wind and generate electricity. Portugal has nearly 3,000. Together, when conditions are perfect, they can generate almost 38 gigawatts.
Like Cervantes’ hero, the elites also want “to reach the unreachable star” – or at least capture the energy from one star: the sun. Spain and Portugal together also have 38 GW of photovoltaic solar panels.
However, the Iberian Peninsula neighbors have long ignored the dark sides of the forces they seek to commandeer.
. . .
On April 16, for the first time, for a few minutes, Spain generated 100% of its electricity with wind, solar, and hydro power.
A fortnight later, on April 28, a prolonged blackout sent Iberia into chaos. Lights, televisions, refrigerators, cell phones, and traffic lights went dark. Trains, subways, and elevators trapped passengers. Airports canceled flights. Hospital backup power provided only basic and emergency services.
The outage even struck parts of France and Belgium. It was Europe’s biggest blackout ever. If France hadn’t shut off its connection to Spain’s cascading problems, all of Europe could have shut down.
Just a week later, another blackout hit Spain’s Canary Islands.
Power outages are nothing new. But the Spain-Portugal blackouts underscore fundamental problems with the supposedly “inevitable transition” from coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear electricity to wind, solar, and battery power [Talkshop comment – meaning battery *storage*].
They show that the only inevitability will be more frequent and severe blackouts – because of our soaring reliance on electricity … political decisions to mothball or destroy reliable generating systems … and ideological commitments to “green” energy.
We’re effectively being told: You’ll have electricity when it’s available – not necessarily when you need it. In this modern technological era, that is absurd, outrageous, intolerable, and dangerous.
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
June 19, 2025 at 03:24AM
This article says the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry is ‘struggling with a shortage of supplies and suspected fraud’, and questions whether it’s merely a ‘token effort’ on aviation emissions. It could even be that, like the idea of more fast roads generating more journeys and more traffic, increasing SAF supply merely helps to boost the total volume of flights, so defeating the strange concept of reducing ’emissions’ of the vitally important to nature trace gas CO2, under the banner of ‘net zero’.
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This is the starting point for Europe’s lofty dreams of greener air travel – a collection point in Malaysia for greasy plastic bottles filled with discarded frying oil, thousands of miles from its final destination, says Climate Home News.
One Saturday morning last month in the city of Melaka, volunteers in green T-shirts rushed over as Adibah Rahim and her husband drove into the central square, eager to unpack, weigh and register her consignment of used cooking oil (UCO) – the “liquid gold” in European plans to ramp up production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
Rahim left the collection point 90 ringgit ($21) richer, three ringgit per litre of oil – a welcome boost to her family’s household budget.
. . .
When made from waste such as UCO, rather than agricultural commodities like soy or palm oil, backers say SAF can slash planet-heating emissions [Talkshop comment – unsupported assertion] by up to 80% over kerosene jet fuel, without taking up land that would otherwise be used for food crops, or fuelling forest destruction.
But behind SAF’s climate-friendly facade, a months-long investigation by Climate Home News and its partner The Straits Times has uncovered an opaque global supply chain that exposes jet fuel providers and their aviation clients to significant fraud risks, raising doubts about the climate benefits of the sector’s main green hope for the years ahead.
As SAF producers scramble for limited raw materials to meet new blending quotas in Europe and growing demand elsewhere, barely used and virgin palm oil is being passed off as UCO to traders that supply fuel companies, experts and industry operators told us.
Palm oil that is not considered waste is not permitted under European Union rules for SAF because of its links to deforestation.
Our reporting focused on the UCO trade between Malaysia, the world’s second-biggest palm oil producer, and Spain, the EU’s largest aviation market and home to one of its SAF pioneers – oil-and-gas giant Repsol.
. . .
Shrinking air travel’s carbon footprint
Europe’s green aviation fuel refineries are boosting output because of new requirements by the EU and the UK for planes to use more SAF in the coming decades. From the start of this year, fuel supplied to airports across Europe needs to contain at least 2% of SAF, with targets rising gradually over the next 15 years, putting huge strain on tight global supplies.
SAF is crucial for shrinking aviation’s carbon footprint, according to industry body the International Air Transport Association (IATA), and is expected to account for 65% of emissions reductions by 2050, when the sector has committed to reaching net zero.
In 2023, emissions from international plane travel accounted for 2.5% of the world’s energy-related carbon emissions. As air travel increases, and other sectors are more easily able to decarbonise, that share is set to grow.
Full article here.
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Image credit: infra.global
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
June 19, 2025 at 03:22AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 