Tropical timings – the orbit of Neptune


The idea here is to derive the period of Neptune’s orbit from available information and compare it to the ‘official’ figure.

An internet search brings up Neptune: Facts – NASA Science, which says:
One day on Neptune takes about 16 hours (the time it takes for Neptune to rotate or spin once). And Neptune makes a complete orbit around the Sun (a year in Neptunian time) in about 165 Earth years (60,190 Earth days).

That’s the sidereal orbit period, but there’s another one to consider as a further check. Turning to the NASA planetary factsheet for Neptune we find:
Sidereal orbit period (days) — 60,189.018 — 365.256 — 164.79
Tropical orbit period (days) — 59,799.900 — 365.242 — 163.73

The last figure in each row is the ratio of Neptune to Earth i.e. years, not days. The plan is to focus on the tropical year period and see if it lines up with the displays on Arnholm’s solar simulator.

To improve the accuracy we use the tropical year of Earth as published – 365.24219 days:
59799.9 / 365.24219 = 163.726704 tropical years

Comparing this to the 166 tropical year period we’ve investigated in earlier ‘tropical timings’ posts, and originally here:
166 / 163.726704 = 1.0138888
1 / 0.0138888 = 72.00046
72*166 = 11952
11952 / 163.726704 = 72.9997 (73)

Therefore 11952 tropical years (TY) looks like 73 Neptune (tropical) orbits. This can be modelled on the solar simulator, but only within a 3000 year window. A quarter of 11952 is 2988 TY (= 18*166 or 3*996), which we think should be 73/4 = 18.25 Neptune orbits. So Neptune should be 90°(360°*0.25) further forward in its orientation with the Sun than its original position (in year 0) after exactly 2988 TY of orbiting – in theory.

Let’s see how it looks on the solar simulator, which says in its frame of reference it is ‘Looking down on Sun’s north pole’. The first image shows a 2988 TY comparison (7 May of year 0 to 7 May 2988).


It can be seen that the the Earth-Neptune angle with the Sun (above, right) looks a lot like 90°. To be a bit more scientific we can move the date forward by 1/4 of a year (right), when it should meet Neptune whose orbit only moves about 0.55° in that time, so Earth only needs 0.56 days ‘extra’ to make up for that.

These results confirm that the simulator represents the planetary movement of Neptune using the tropical orbit data. This can be extended to Jupiter and Earth as follows:
73 Neptune = 1008 Jupiter (144*7) = 11952 Earth (144*83 or 72*166 TY).

So the Talkshop formula for Neptune’s orbit in tropical years is:
166 – (166/73) TY = 163.726074 TY = 59,799.67 days.
That number is only 0.23 days less than the NASA number (59,799.90 days) over the whole period.
– – –
Image: Neptune

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May 12, 2025 at 03:29PM

British politics in turmoil after Reform’s wins — Greens Deputy even attacks Net Zero from the left

By Jo Nova

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is transforming British politics

The Tories have already dropped Net Zero policies, but now the effects are spreading to Labour and the Greens. Australian spineless political parties should note that voters reward parties who lead the way in dumping Net Zero and immigration.

Just the fear of what might happen at the Council Elections meant Tony Blair, the former Labour PM, dropped the bombshell that Net Zero was unworkable, and that people were being silenced because they were terrified of being called Climate Deniers. A wave of skepticism was sweeping across Europe and Blair wanted to jump in ahead to steer the rebellion somewhat and promote his own plans.

Reform stormed the English council elections in a seismic way — winning 677 seats, twice as many as the Conservatives, and more than sixfold more than Labour.

Now even the Guardian are writing headlines asking if the Labour party will abandon Net Zero? In the end the article is another advert for Net Zero (aren’t they all) but it’s obvious the Guardian editors are worried that Labour might be tossing the idea around.

Two weeks ago this would have been unthinkable.

After Blair’s bombshell, will Labour stick with or abandon net zero?

The win for Farage has rattled the cages so much that even some Greens are saying that Net Zero is hurting the poor (only thirty years too late). The Deputy Leader of the Green Party in England and Wales (which is not the same as The UK Greens) is running for the Party leadership on a whole new thing called “Eco-populism”.

Megan Kenyon, New Statesman

Zack Polanski is looking to lead the Green Party, and to challenge Labour’s climate policy from the left.

One of Reform’s primary battlegrounds with the government is over climate policy, as Farage wields net zero as a culture war sledgehammer. Polanski similarly hopes to put the pressure on Labour over this issue – but from the left. “I’m really angry about net zero,” he told me, “I’m angry that the government are expecting some of the poorest in this country to step up to net zero, expecting people to install heat pumps or expecting people to get a train rather than a plane, even though a plane is a much cheaper option”. Taken at face value, these words could well have been spoken by a Reform candidate or councillor – almost as though it is out of Farage’s own playbook. “While I may even agree with Nigel Farage’s diagnosis of the problems, it’s very clear that he doesn’t really intend to do anything about those things,” Polanski said.

His solution (of course) is to tax “businesses” — (because they never sell to the poor, and wouldn’t pass on those taxes…. right?)

Polanski believes the government should target UK businesses and the wealthy to shoulder the cost of the green transition via a wealth tax.

Voters flock to parties who stand up for them against the namecallers. (And it’s a shame the Nationals didn’t choose Matt Canavan to lead them!)

 

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May 12, 2025 at 02:41PM

National suicide – a rejection or just a reprieve for the USA?

Will the Left succeed in convincing Europe to commit suicide? Will America follow?

Paul Driessen

“Poor Jud is dead. A candle lights his head! He’s looking oh so pretty and so nice. He looks like he’s asleep. It’s a shame that he won’t keep. But it’s summer and we’re running out of ice.”

In Oklahoma! Curly McClain almost succeeds in convincing Jud Fry to take himself (permanently) out of the competition for Laurey Williams’ hand. But Jud finally catches on to Curly’s clever scheme and angrily confronts the musical’s leading man.

Offstage, in the real world, historian Arnold Toynbee cautioned, “Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder.” Their citizens forget, or reject, the reasons for their accomplishments, health and living standards; replace hard work with self-absorption and a sense of entitlement; and succumb to the belief that the world would be better if they eliminated evils like borders, citizenship, religion and fossil fuels.

Imagine there’s no countries … Nothing to kill or die for, And no religion, too.”

Indeed, the Left has been devilishly ingenious in its efforts to lure the United States, Europe and The West into committing civilizational suicide – by fearmongering us that the planet’s very existence is at stake, and promising that future generations will praise us if we follow “progressive” demands.  

Above all, the Left assures us, replacing oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear power with “clean, renewable, sustainable” wind and solar energy will ensure idyllic temperatures, a perfect climate all year, planetary salvation – and everlasting hosannahs.

Those tempted by these sirens’ calls should ponder my grandmother’s sage adage: “The only good thing about the ‘good old days’ is that they’re gone.” Having grown up on a nineteenth-century farm, Grandma Anna never wanted to live again without indoor plumbing, electricity or refrigerators that replaced ice boxes, ice houses and the risk of “running out of ice” before the next Wisconsin winter set in.

Terror attacks, judicial interference and Blue State resistance notwithstanding, Trump Administration and congressional actions on these fronts suggest that the United States will at least forestall, if not reject, national suicide. Much of Europe, however, seems headed for energy and civilizational collapse.  

Grooming gangs” sexually exploiting young girls, vehicular rampages and knife attacks, frequent gang rapes, enclaves of assimilation-rejecting migrants, and native populations whose lower birthrates make it likely that legal and illegal immigrants will soon dominate demographics, cultures and elections – all are harbingers of slow but steady civilizational decline across much of Europe.

Prolonging these problems, from Britain to France to Germany, ruling liberal/socialist elites are shutting down conservative voices and even entire parties that question or challenge government ideologies on climate change, the energy “transition” to wind and solar, open borders and free speech. Germany’s domestic intelligence service officially classified the popular, populist, anti-green-energy Alternative fűr Deutschland as a “proven far-right extremist” organization; AfD could now be subjected to informants and secret recordings and even banned from future elections.

Perhaps worst of all, Europe may be entering not just a new intellectual Dark Age, but a North Korea-style darkness age – where energy is scarce and costly, factories close, jobs disappear, lighting and heating become luxuries, and governments increasingly control lives, livelihoods and living standards.

Germany and Britain already have among the highest household, business and industrial electricity prices on Earth (nearly 3x higher than average US prices; 3-4x higher than in 30 states). Yet they refuse to frack for natural gas to power generators or build nuclear plants for reliable, affordable electricity … while demanding electric vehicles and heating, and importing more Russian gas to finance Putin’s war machine.

(US states focused on climate and “green” energy also have outrageously high electricity prices.)

Reliability is equally problematic. On April 16, Spain was euphoric: wind, solar and hydro power provided 100% of its electricity. Twelve days later, a long blackout plunged the country into chaos. No lights, refrigerators, TVs or cell phones; no trains, subways, traffic lights or flights; cash only because credit cards didn’t work; hospitals had only limited backup power; people died.

Sunny, Net-Zero Spain has 32 gigawatts of installed solar photovoltaic capacity – blanketing over 315 square miles (5x Washington, DC) with solar panels. But the panels generate power intermittently, unreliably, at only 17% of their rated capacity overall. When solar generation surges (or plummets), its aging grid cannot handle the strain or meet power demands.

The heavily wind-solar Spanish electrical system lacks the “inertia” or “spinning mass” that gas and nuclear power plants provide: the innate ability to respond quickly to changes in demand, prevent fluctuations in voltage and available power, maintain grid stability, and prevent blackouts. And Spain’s few remaining gas and nuclear plants were mostly offline when needed April 28.

Experts estimate that the EU power grid requires at least a $1-trillion upgrade to avoid similar blackouts. The International Energy Agency says Europe must spend $600 billion a year to cover the necessary overhauls; the European Commission puts the grid-upgrade tab at over $2 trillion by 2050.

Net-Zero US states risk similar electricity chaos, financial catastrophes and economic decline. The obvious best example is California – which already imports 20-30 percent of its electricity, depending on wind and sunshine, and increasing amounts of gasoline, as regulations, fines and costs force more refineries to close. The state is also plagued by recurring power outages.

The looming closure of Valero’s Benicia refinery will not only eliminated local jobs and revenues. It will leave California drivers with less fuel (just as EV drivers have to cope with reduce electricity generation), compel the oil-rich former Golden State to import even more fuel from Asia (adding tanker costs and emissions to the equation), deprive Nevada and Arizona of fuels their residents need – and leave Travis Air Force Base largely bereft of fuels for its cargo, refueling and other aircraft.

Here’s the inescapable reality. Wind, solar and grid-scale battery power are not clean, green, renewable or sustainable. These installations and transmission lines blanket scenic, cropland and habitats. They slaughter raptors and kill off whales and other wildlife. The batteries catch fire with dangerous regularity.

Their massive raw material requirements mean mining, processing, manufacturing, pollution and further ecosystem impacts at historically unprecedented scales, to build inefficient, insufficient, but hugely expensive energy systems.

Then, to hopefully avoid recurring blackouts, those systems must be backed up with additional, duplicative, reliable power generation for the hours, days and weeks when wind and sunshine fail to do their job – adding more charges to electricity bills. And wind and solar do nothing to replace the oil and gas feedstocks needed to manufacture over 6,000 vital everyday products.

There’s a better way. Keep producing coal, oil and gas – and relying on coal, gas and nuclear power plants. Scrap plans for new wind, solar and battery systems … and junk the ones we have. Equally important, stop basing energy policy on GIGO climate models that conjure up absurd temperature, weather and other cataclysms that are used to justify pseudo-green energy and destroy civilizations.

That’s simple energy, economic, scientific and moral common sense. There is no reason (except stupidity and recalcitrance) for America (or any nation) to commit economic, cultural and national suicide.

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of books and articles on energy, environment, climate change and human rights issues.


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May 12, 2025 at 12:03PM

Offshore Wind Tech Company Goes Bust

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t idau

 

Meanwhile 162 green jobs have disappeared. Beam, a Bristol-headquartered subsea and offshore wind tech company has fallen into administration.

Business Live have the story here.

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May 12, 2025 at 11:56AM