From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

UK Electricity Consumption

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-section-5-energy-trends

The REF’s new report on green energy subsidies noted that renewables subsidies are now costing £25.8 bn per year – or over £900 per household annually – about one third of which, £280, will hit the average domestic electricity bill directly.

For a long time, part of the gaslighting around the cost of Net Zero has been focus people’s attention over the impact on their energy bills.

However, as John Constable pointed out, only about a third of the cost hits the public directly via their electricity bills, because only a third of electricity is consumed by domestic users.

The other two thirds is used by industry and commerce, transport and the public sector.

But that does not mean that the public at large don’t end up footing the entire bill one way or another.

Higher electricity costs for industry and commerce mean higher prices in the shops. And higher electricity costs in the public sector mean higher taxes or poorer public services.

At the worst, businesses may shut or move their production abroad, leaving us all worse off.

Miliband and co would love you to think you are only paying a hundred quid or so for Net Zero. People would be horrified to learn that the price is nearer a thousand quid a year.

And that cost is of course just for starters. When we all have to buy expensive EVs and heat pumps we don’t want, we will be much worse off.

With an upcoming Valero Refinery closure in California, the 5^th largest economy in the world will be more dependent of China for its demands for transportation fuels and oil derivatives to make products.

Ronald Stein, P.Ev. is an engineer, columnist on energy literacy at America Out Loud NEWS, and advisor on energy literacy for the Heartland Institute and CFACT, and co-author of the Pulitzer Prize-nominated book “Clean Energy Exploitations.”

Mike Umbro is an environmental leader, with a Master of Energy Business from the University of Tulsa and a Master of Environmental Management- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University and proud Californian. He founded Californians for Energy & Science to study the environmental and economic benefits of locally produced energy.

                                    Co-authored by Ronald Stein, P.E. and Mike Umbro

Published April 28, 2025, in America Out Loud NEWS

https://www.americaoutloud.news/another-refinery-closure-in-california-increases-the-states-dependency-on-china

Over the last several decades, California’s passion to transition away from fossil fuels has overregulated and overly burdened just the SUPPLY of oil production and refining but has not reduced the increasing materialistic DEMANDS of the world for the more than 6,000 products and transportation fuels made from those fossil fuels. Thus, China is savoring the future with their many refineries coming online to meet the DEMANDS of society.

The recent announcement that the Valero Benica Refinery in Northern California will be  closing by the end of 2026 was disappointing, but shockingly, a prelude to more closures in the future. The Valero refinery at Benicia represents almost 9% of the state’s crude oil processing capacity to meet the materialistic demands of the States’ residents. 

Just last year, in October 2024, Phillips 66 announced that it would close its Wilmington-area refining complex this year, which will further reduce the state’s gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels production capacity, wiping out more than 8% of the state’s crude oil processing capacity. Losing another 1.3 billion gallons in annual gasoline output will only worsen the state’s supply challenges to meet the demands.

Governor Newsom’s policies, just on the “supply” side of the equation, continue to force California, the 5^th largest economy in the world, to be the only state in contiguous America that imports most of its crude oil demands from foreign countries. California crude oil production is in terminal decline, driven by the lack of drilling permits, despite ample reserves. That dependence on foreign imports has increased imported crude oil from foreign countries from 5 percent in 1992 to more than 60 percent today of total consumption.

The West Coast gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels market is isolated from other supply/demand centers as California is an energy island isolated from all States East of the Sierra Mountains. The Sierra Mountains are a natural barrier that prevents the state from pipeline access to any of that excess oil from fracking East of the Sierra Mountains. As such, the West Coast is susceptible to unexpected outages of West Coast refineries as it is unable to backfill an unexpected loss in supply of crude oil.

Because California is an isolated energy island  market with no incoming oil pipeline connections over the Sierra Mountains from other states, in-state refinery closures will increase importation to meet demands for transportation fuels – sourced primarily from foreign countries like China, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Iraq, Columbia, and Russia. 

California transportation fuel demands have staggering numbers from the in-state refineries:

• With all its 145 airports, inclusive of 9 international airports and 41 military airports, that demand 13 million gallons of aviation fuel daily.  In 2019, California consumed 16.7% of the national total of jet fuel, making it the largest consumer of jet fuel in America.
• For its 30 million vehicles, California is the second-largest consumer of motor gasoline among the 50 states consuming 42 million gallons a day of gasoline, just behind Texas.
• Diesel fuel is the second largest transportation fuel used in California, consuming 10 million gallons a day of diesel to support the state’s 35 million registered vehicles.
• California refineries supply 45% of Arizona’s and 88% of Nevada’s transportation fuels, so any disruption in California impacts all three states.
• California’s northern and southern fuel supply systems are not connected, requiring ocean-going vessels to transport fuel between them.

The efforts of California toward the oil production and refining “supply” have had minimal impact on the growing materialistic “demands” of what is made from those fossil fuels.

• The mandating for a transition to EV’s has had minimal impact on gasoline consumption as most EV’s are second vehicles for low milage usage. The workhorse vehicles for major milage demands are still reliable and affordable internal combustion engines.
• Hospitals and airports continue expanding to meet the demands of society. Both hospitals and airports did not exist 200 years ago as they only exist today because of the more than 6,000 products and transportation fuels made from fossil fuels.

Today, Asia is the region with the greatest number of future petroleum refineries. As of 2021, there were 88 new refinery facilities in planning or under construction in Asia for manufactured gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels used by every transportation infrastructure, and the military, as well as the manufactured oil derivatives that are the basis of most every product being used by mankind.

In the more immediate term, China has plans for multiple new refineries, with at least five projects expected to be completed by 2028, and another three new refineries by 2030, contributing to a broader shift towards integrated petrochemical facilities.

The upcoming closure of Phillips 66 Refinery in 2025, and the Valero Refinery in 2026 will not reduce the materialistic demands of society for the products and fuels from those refineries. The state will obviously be importing less crude oil to refine, but instead, will be importing transportation fuels manufactured in China, the same transportation fuels that are no longer manufactured at those two closed California facilities. Yes, the big winner to meet the continuously increasing demands for the products and fuels from refined oil, appears to be China.

On another front, the current “tariff wars with China” received repercussions from China. China controls most of the rare earth’s metals around the world, thus it is a national security risk to America!  They are now playing those cards, which will start to impact the supply chain of those materials to meet the demands of USA manufacturers.

• Shipments of the magnets, essential for assembling everything from cars and drones to robots and missiles, have been halted at many Chinese ports while the Chinese government drafts a new regulatory system. Once in place, the new system could permanently prevent supplies from reaching certain companies, including American military contractors.

With closure of the Phillips 66 Refinery in 2025, and the Valero Refinery in 2026, a similar national security concern would result from our growing dependence on China to meet the humongous demands for transportation fuels by California, Arizona and Nevada.

Compounding the growing need for more importation to meet the materialistic demands of society will be the West Coast port’s ability to receive transportation fuels as marine facilities in California face increased congestion and dramatic vessel limits.

It’s obvious that the Net-Zero emission policies within California, and their lack of comprehension of “supply AND demand”, and the subsequent over regulations, mandates, and taxes just on the SUPPLY side of the equation, are causing a national security situation for the entire country’s DEMANDs for the products and fuels made from the fossil fuel industry. In the meantime, China is silently supporting the efforts of California and savoring the future with their many refineries coming online to meet the materialistic DEMANDS of society.

Please share this information with teachers, students, and friends to encourage Energy Literacy conversations at the family dinner table.

Click this Link to Sign up for Energy Literacy from Ronald Stein

I’m sometimes asked how ocean circulation can naturally cause global warming, with many assuming solar variability or under sea volcanoes to be the indirect immediate cause.

My New Theory of Climate Resilience will focus instead on ocean upwelling dynamics, particularly in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP), and their modulation by lunar cycles. And I’m thinking in terms of a wind-driven climate.

These lunar cycles will be a topic for another day, in this short note I want to just introduce the idea of upwellings, and specifically for the eastern Pacific Ocean affecting global temperatures.

For centuries, Peruvian fisherman have noticed an increase in surface ocean temperature every so many years that impacts their catch.

The other years there are major deep ocean upwelling with the trade winds thought to drive cold, nutrient- and CO₂-rich deep waters (>1000 m, 2–4°C) to the surface. However, during El Niño years, weakened trade winds are thought to reduce upwelling, allowing warmer intermediate waters (100–500 m, 12–20°C) to dominate, raising sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

To be sure the ocean is layered! Temperatures change with the seasons and other cycles.

The surface mixed layer (0–65 m, 24–28°C) absorbs solar radiation; the intermediate layer is thought to be warmed by western Pacific currents, while the cold deep waters are the source of upwellings bringing nutrient rich waters that feed Peruvian anchoveta.

The Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) is a species of fish of the anchovy family, Engraulidae, from the Southeast Pacific Ocean. It is one of the most commercially important fish species in the world, with annual harvests varying significantly between 3.14 and 8.32 million tonnes depending on ocean upwellings with cycles that appear to be little changed over the millennia. Most of the anchoveta catch is processed into fishmeal and fish oil, which is then exported to feed fish and livestock around the world including even farmed salmon in Chile and pigs in the United States and China.

There are robotic ARGO buoys that float with the currents; individual buoys can drift at depths of between 1 and 2 km, before ascending to the surface every ten days, measuring temperature and salinity as they rise. According to published studies, this ARGO data shows a general increase in sea surface temperatures with further rises of 1–2°C during El Niño years. So, the change is broadly consistent with the UAH satellite temperature data that shows warming since at least 1979 that has occurred as step changes, rather than as a general linear increase.

Last night Australia conservative politics suffered a devastating defeat to the Australian Labour Party in the federal election, though neither side managed to garner very much of the primary vote.

For sure, there are cycles in politics just as there are cycles in life. Recovery, if it is to occur, will perhaps require some reconnecting with core values that once upon a time placed a premium on evidence-based public policies developed with reference to the traditional scientific method while encouraging debate.

For sure, given the importance of energy and that the energy transition is apparently being forced by a climate emergency there is a need for a new theory of climate change that begins with an understanding of natural cycles. To simply claim, however, that climate change is natural is not a theory or even a proper rebuttal. It represents lazy politics currently favoured by conservative opinion leaders who are mostly frightened of my climate science. Shame.

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The image featured at the top of this post is from Nasa Flickr, with thanks. More information at:
https://www.nasa.gov/nasa-brand-center/images-and-media/