Cawdor Castle No 2 DCNN 1012 – Nothing at all to do with the “Scottish play” but largely fiction nonetheless.

57.52520 -3.92449 Met Office CIMO Assessed Class 5 installed 1/10/1997

Despite many modern myths Cawdor Castle was not even built in the times of King Macbeth and there is no reference to it in the the play. Any allusions to it are fictional. Similarly the weather station is neither old nor actually particularly near the castle itself with dubious data.

There really is nothing to say in favour of this site. It is typical of very many Scottish sites in yet again being in a horticultural environment with greenhouses, hotbeds, cold-frames and general garden support for the main walled gardens and maze. This is a manual reporting station and its record keeping is very good indeed with most of its 26 operating years completed in full – presumably a function of the garden staff. What always baffles me is why any meteorologist would feel it acceptable to add data from this site to the national historic temperature record – is this really anything like the natural surrounding countryside? For comparison a close up.

The trees to the east and north fulfil their function of breaking all the chill easterly/northerly winds for the benefit of the walled gardens. The walling itself further blocks breezes with the proximity of buildings absurdly close. The image below shows 10 metre and just 3 metre (10 feet) radius circles – it is hard to imagine a more compromised site, though this is actually not unusual in these types of sites in Scotland.

There is also a private weather station in Cawdor which reports its data to the Met Office WOW website. Below is a more typical view from the location of this PWS much more representative of the surrounding area – completely different to the Castle grounds.

Cawdor Castle weather station is virtually useless for weather prediction and even more so for climate reporting being in a totally unnatural location. I will shortly be publishing the full list of Met Office weather stations so completely inappropriately located in walled gardens. There an astonishingly large number and Cawdor Castle is one of them.

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April 21, 2025 at 05:21AM

Vale Pope Francis: A Legacy of Faith Over Facts

Pope Francis’s death marks the end of a papacy that boldly thrust the Catholic Church into climate change politics, most notably through his 2015 encyclical Laudato Si’.

His fervent advocacy, framed as a moral imperative to save “our common home,” reshaped the Church’s role in global debates, and at a cost. By leaning on institutional authorities like the IPCC, Francis blurred the once sacred line between religion and science, a divide the Church had respected for some time. His reliance on contested climate narratives, without engaging the underlying science, sidelined dissenters—dismissing “climate deniers” as “foolish” in a 2024 CBS interview. Shame.

Laudato Si’ was a masterstroke of moral rhetoric, tying environmentalism to Catholic social teaching. It inspired movements like the Laudato Si’ Action Platform and pushed Catholic institutions toward divestment from fossil fuels. Shame.

By prioritizing institutional consensus over open inquiry, Francis stifled the Church’s potential as a neutral arbiter. His calls for “decisive action” at COP28 and interfaith climate declarations, like the 2024 Jakarta statement, showed zeal but ignored economic trade-offs and ignored the failure of climate models. The simulation models are useless at forecasting weather and climate, useful as political tools.

To his credit, Francis’s heart was with the poor, whom he saw as climate change’s worst victims. His push for “ecological debt” forgiveness for poorer nations was a sincere, and foolish, plea.

What if science limits the meaning of our lives; there is no purpose beyond that which we create? Some of us will live on—through our genes, our inventions, our writings or the good works we have sponsored. Even Pope’s die, and that which he has writ cannot be erased, not one line of it however foolish.

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April 21, 2025 at 04:51AM

Shetland’s Viking Windfarm Scandal

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Hugh Sharman

OFGEM have opened an investigation into constraint payments for Moray East offshore wind farm:

Ofgem is investigating the compliance of Moray Offshore Windfarm (East) Ltd (the owner and operator of Moray East Offshore Windfarm) with the requirements of condition 20A of the Electricity Generation Standard Licence Conditions (known as the Transmission Constraint Licence Condition, or “TCLC”).

A transmission constraint is defined in the TCLC as any limit on the ability of the national electricity transmission system, or any part of it, to transmit the power supplied onto the system to the location where the demand for that power is situated. In order to manage transmission constraints, National Energy System Operator (“NESO”) routinely uses the balancing mechanism (“BM”) to increase and decrease the amount of electricity produced by different generators.

Typically, when managing a transmission constraint, NESO will only have a limited number of alternatives available to it. This creates a risk that generators could exploit their position by charging NESO excessive prices to reduce their output. The TCLC prohibits them from doing so.

Since it began operating in the BM in September 2021, Moray East Offshore Windfarm has been regularly instructed by NESO to reduce its generation to manage transmission constraints. Its bid prices since then appear expensive relative to the expected marginal cost of reducing generation for this generator. Our investigation will assess whether these bid prices were excessive during periods of constraint.  

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/investigation-moray-offshore-windfarm-east-limiteds-compliance-tclc

According to the Telegraph, Moray East was paid £100 million in the two years to September 2023.

The problem is the usual one we see regularly – Moray East is situated off the North East coast of Scotland. When there is too wind, the transmission system cannot cope with the flow of electricity to south where the demand is.

https://www.morayeast.com/project/about-moray-east

Leaving aside the question of whether Moray East has done anything wrong or not, the real guilt for this abuse of public money lies with whoever allowed this wind farm to be built in the first place in a location where it would not be possible to fully utilise its output.

Because of political decisions made over this project and many others like it in northern Scotland, we are now faced with a bill running into tens of billions, for upgrading the grid.

As we know, these decisions were made in the mad, headlong rush to decarbonise, alongside the SNP’s obsession with an “energy independent” Scotland.

But amidst all of this waste of money, maybe the biggest scandal of the lot is what has been going on up in the Shetlands, where the giant Viking onshore wind farm has begun operating.

Originally proposed in 2005, it has led to growing concerns about its environmental impact.

As long ago as 2019, the Herald reported that the project was tearing the island community apart:

It is an issue that has divided a community for more than a decade.

When plans for a giant wind farm to be built on pristine peatland on Shetland were proposed in 2005, it was presented to the islanders as a community-owned enterprise with the potential to earn them £37 million a year.

But after 14 years and growing concerns over Shetland’s fragile biodiversity being shattered by the 155 meter turbines being built on pristine peatland and the infrastructure required to construct them, hundreds of islanders are now calling for the project to be scrapped.

Frank Hay, chairman of Sustainable Shetland, an action group formed in 2009 to take on the council-owned Viking Energy Shetland (VES) and partner Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE)’s multi-million pound Viking Wind Farm, said: “It’s basically economics against the environment. The scale of the wind farm and where they are proposing to build the turbines, it’s simply not right.”

The risk of peatslides is just one of the concerns held by local meteorologist and geologist Allen Fraser. He said: “Most of the access roads are floating roads on peat more than five metres deep, which will disrupt the natural drainage into the valleys, resulting in erosion and peatslides.

“Carbon release and pollution risk was not properly investigated. It is clear from the works already begun that planning and environmental constraints placed on the developers are being circumvented or ignored.”

Mr Fraser said: “The wind farm and others granted or in the planning process will stretch in a practically unbroken line through the length of the islands for more than 70 kilometres, all on peat, on an island chain of low hills that is 110 km long and only 10 km wide at the widest point.

“Access roads and power lines, along with at least 12 super quarries, will 
criss-cross and permanently scar the hills for 150 km.”

Richard Lindsay, head of Environmental and Conservation Research at the University of East London, who has visited the site, said: “The simple fact is that just 30cm of peat over one hectare contains the same amount of carbon as one hectare of tropical rainforest – around 280 tonnes.

Campaigners have argued that Shetland cannot support the £700m interconnector cable that would transmit energy from the islands to the Scottish mainland. Mr Fraser said: “Not one amp of power generated by these giant windfarms is for use in Shetland, it is all for export down the cable. There is no guarantee of any community benefit after the shareholders and owners of the windfarms have taken their cut.”

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17858289.green-energy-scheme-tearing-island-community-apart

The campaigners were right to complain about the interconnector.  Hans Marter of Shetland News takes up the story with this new article:

What was promoted as the UK’s “most productive onshore wind farm” is turning out to be one of the country’s most poorly performing.

Rather than producing electricity at a load factor of around 50 per cent, as forecast and promoted by owner SSE Renewables, the Viking Energy wind farm has so far been churning out electricity at a rate of just 17 per cent of what is potentially possible.

The 103-turbine project became operational in summer last year.

The average load factor for onshore wind farms in the UK currently stands at 26.34 per cent, according to Renewables UK. For offshore projects the average output rises to just over 40 per cent.

The £600 million wind farm in the central mainland of Shetland is standing idle for long periods due to constraints and bottlenecks in the national grid network.

The Viking wind farm ranked third for the highest amount of energy going unused in the UK in 2024 as reported by Shetland News in January.

The SSE-owned project saw over 464,000 MWh of energy constrained in the final five months of the year, data from the Renewable Energy Foundation (REF) shows.

Only two wind farms – Seagreen and Moray East – had higher totals, with both being offshore developments.

The 443MW wind farm was supposed to power as many as half a million households, but industry insiders have warned for a long time that any new wind farm project in the north of Scotland was in danger of becoming ‘stranded’ until the national grid is upgraded.

SSE Renewables is however cashing in on constraint payments for the time Viking is not producing any energy.

Chair of local campaign group Sustainable Shetland, Frank Hay, said he was not surprised about SSE being coy about the Viking load factor.

“As is plain to see, this wind farm is very much a part-time operator. Perversely, the Viking wind farm seems to operate mainly when the winds are light,” Hay said.

“It seems ridiculous that the grid inadequacy on mainland UK was not obvious when approval of this wind farm was being considered.

“Unfortunately, it will probably be years before the necessary grid upgrades will be completed and Shetland’s ‘world class wind’ can be fully utilised.

https://www.shetnews.co.uk/2025/04/14/viking-energys-power-output-drops

So there we have it!

£1.3 billion has been spent building Viking and its interconnector, for little apparent benefit for the Islanders or the country at large, who will one way or another end up paying the bill.

Meanwhile it is debatable whether it will actually reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, given the devastation wrought on the peatlands.

But at least its developer, SSE Renewables, can boast:

“Green energy from Viking will deliver a significant contribution to climate change targets and help Scotland’s transition to net zero emissions by 2045 and provide a vital source of economic diversification for the islands”

It’s the sort of economic diversification the Shetlanders could do without, I suspect!


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April 21, 2025 at 04:05AM

No Trump Needed—Wind Just Blew It 


The question posed here about renewables is whether endless subsidies for a so-called ‘energy transition’ are affordable for those forced to cover the costs, especially when the things being subsidised are creating daily problems for electricity supply and grid stability due to the erratic nature of the technology? The Europe section of an OilPrice.com opinion piece follows.
– – –
Now, it’s easy to blame President Trump [for renewables struggling in the USA], but it pays to ask an uncomfortable question: is a technology that is so overwhelmingly dependent on federal policies even worth considering as a cornerstone of any country’s energy supply security?

Certainly, there are plenty of industries that rely on state subsidies, but how many of these, it’s worth asking, rely on these subsidies for their very survival?

The answer is inconvenient for the transition lobby. These are the only industries that literally cannot survive without massive and consistent state financial support. And that essentially makes them unviable in a natural market environment.

For recent proof, look no further than Europe. There is no anti-transition government in Europe. There is no Trump or anything like him at the helm of any European country. And yet it was in Europe that the chief executive of Danish Ørsted insisted that the government step up their financial support for the offshore wind industry to ensure its survival.

As reported by the Financial Times, which spoke to Rasmus Erbroe, “European capitals to commit to consistent annual support for the industry in order to meet offshore wind targets and help reverse rising costs.”

“If you want to deliver on energy security, energy independence, affordability for Europe for the coming decades and meet the targets, then we need to make this change,” the executive said, quite likely believing every word that came out of his mouth was the holy truth. In fact, there is nothing affordable about an energy that cannot absorb its own costs and turn in a profit without government guarantees of that profit.

Yet there are other problems with the transition, too, and Europe is once again the place to look at for proof that these problems are beginning to erode enthusiasm for that transition.

One not inconsiderable problem are negative electricity prices. They made headlines last year, and they are making headlines again as spring arrives and solar generation goes up. France, Bloomberg reported earlier this month, is already struggling with negative electricity prices because of the pick-up in solar generation.

This is what solar proponents sometimes mean when they say solar is cheap: it is cheap, indeed. Alas, this means no profits for operators and a major headache for baseload generators forced to adjust their own output at a not inconsiderable cost.

The surge in intermittent generation is a problem in the UK as well, although it is not famed for its many days of sunshine. Yet even then, solar is turning into an issue. “One of the great engineering challenges of decarbonisation is managing our system when there is lower demand coinciding with higher levels of generation from renewable sources,” the head of resilience and emergency management at the country’s grid operator, the National Energy System Operator, told Bloomberg this week.

All these developments are from Europe. There is no Trump there, no DOGE to axe transition financing, and no plans to cancel the local equivalents of the Inflation Reduction Act—all reasons noted by that WSJ report as examples of how the Trump administration is trying to stop the transition.

Yet the transition in Europe is running into trouble because its problems are fundamental rather than policy-related. Many transition proponents—including the author of that WSJ report—claim the transition is unstoppable, whatever Trump does to it. The above examples, however, suggest this may not be the case.

Full article here.
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Image: Crazy world of climate finance [credit: renewableenergyfocus.com]

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April 21, 2025 at 03:50AM