From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Aesop’s Fable “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” talks about the danger of exaggerating a threat to the point that no one believes you.

The Department of Ecology and the Seattle Times would be well advised to read this ancient story, because they are misleading the people of our state with their claims of a “drought emergency.”

The truth is clear:  such “emergency” claims are contradicted by the facts.

Crying wolf about a non-existent drought not only lessens public confidence in such warnings but wastes money and can lead to a lack of public response when the situation becomes truly serious.

Remember the definition of an emergency (Cambridge Dictionary):

A dangerous or serious situation, such as an accident, that happens suddenly or unexpectedly and needs immediate action

As described in this and my previous blog, the current precipitation situation is not dangerous, did not develop suddenly, and does not require immediate action.

The claims of a drought emergency, centered on Kittitas and Yakima counties (see map), are very weak for many reasons. 

Consider the situation for the reservoirs serving this area.  Water levels are rapidly rising and will soon exceed last year’s level.  Currently, the Yakima region reservoirs are at 67% of normal capacity and most of the snowmelt is in the future.  Thus, the storage levels will improve further.  By a lot.

One reason we can be sure of this is the predicted stream flows (by the Portland River Forecast Center).  The predicted river levels by late summer should be 87% to 105% of normal.   Healthy river levels like this are good for irrigation and for filling reservoirs.

The snowpack is not in an “emergency” state, with relevant basin being 86% of normal (see below from USDA)

The situation this year will be far better (moister) than last year.  But even with drier conditions than this year, agricultural productivity in Washington State was quite good in 2024 (see below), with the greatest weather problem for 2024 being the cold wave last spring (not drought).

Good news on the temperature front this year: no freezing cold wave predicted by the very skillful ECMWF ensemble of many forecasts through the end of the month.  Once in May the threat is over.

I talked to a reporter from WA Ag Information Network today and he had talked to several growers.  They are optimistic about the current season.

So should you.

In summary, the “drought emergency” talk is highly irresponsible and in contradiction to observed facts on the ground.  It is used as a tool to scare people, often with unsupported attempts to connect the fictitious “drought” to climate change.  

Finally, it is interesting to check Google Trends for how many searches have included “drought emergency…see below.  

This term has become more trendy during recent years, with Washington State being the number one place in the nation for using it.  The state with the most reliable and bountiful precipitation in the nation.   That tells you something….

If only Aesop were alive today….

From MasterResource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

“This is where the next frontier of solar energy lies—not in installing the next 100GW—it’s rescuing the first 100GW.” – Cesar Barbosa (below)

And you thought that owning a Tesla was ecological …. Imagine that solar roof that now needs attention with the installer AWOL. The solar industry is about to become the least popular in the U.S. with hundreds of thousands of disappointed customers.

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Cesar Barbosa is busy in a hot new field–solar decommissioning. And repowering too if the tax credit is still there.

“As the founder of NuLife Power Services,” he states, “I’m proud to lead a nationally recognized company specializing in Repowering, Removal & Reinstallation, and Decommissioning for aging solar assets across North America.”

For me, it’s not just about revitalizing solar systems—it’s about building a strong workforce through solid leadership and investing in people who are driven to make a lasting impact in renewable energy.

The name NuLife reflects our mission: giving aging solar systems—and the teams behind them—a chance to shine.

He adds:

My solar company helps clients manage complex end-of-life challenges, specializing in residential portfolio repairs and commercial repowering. My consulting business empowers business owners and managers to unlock their inner champion through a Christian lens.

Busted Sunnova has thousands of customers under 25-year contracts in California, where Barbosa works. What happens to them? And as other solar companies bite the dust … Removing solar panels is and will be a big business indeed.

Warning! Solar Waste Ahead!

In a recent social media post, Barbosa warned:

A bold prediction no one wants to hear: Half of all commercial solar systems installed before 2016 will be underperforming or non-operational by 2030.

The solar industry is obsessed with the future.
Cutting-edge panels (bigger is better). Sleek batteries. Dazzling projections for new installs.

But here’s the reality we can’t afford to ignore: a silent crisis unfolding on rooftops across America—a crisis I’ve been tackling firsthand since 2012, traveling the country with SunPower to address some of the industry’s most pressing system failures.

Across the country, tens of thousands of rooftop solar systems—once hailed as the clean energy revolution—are quietly decaying. Not because the technology failed, but because the industry did. We rushed to install. We cut corners. We promised 25 years of performance… and delivered systems that can’t make it past 10.

He continues:

Here’s what’s killing them:
Inverters are dying—many are already out of warranty, with no replacements available.

Wiring and electrical infrastructure that was never designed for 25+ years of exposure.

Install quality? Forget it—an army of barely trained crews built the boom, and now we’re paying the price.

Maintenance? There was no plan. Just a contract, a handshake, and a hope it would all work out.

This is not just an engineering issue—it’s a financial one. Underperforming assets are generating less revenue than forecasted, while increasing the risk of electrical faults, fire hazards, and insurance claims.

And here’s the kicker: almost no one is ready to deal with this wave of system failures. Asset managers, facility owners, and even EPCs are discovering that repowering, remediation, or decommissioning is far more complex and expensive than expected.

This is where the next frontier of solar energy lies—not in installing the next 100GW—it’s rescuing the first 100GW.

Revitalization. Repowering. Responsible end-of-life planning. The question isn’t whether it’s coming. It’s whether we have the guts to face it. Are we going to keep pitching the dream—or finally clean up the mess we left behind?

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