I post my reports on X to widen the audience for the topic. I was recently messaged there by an amateur meteorologist local to Manston (who preferred to retain anonymity) who pointed out that it was remarkably easy to spot the issues at Manston with its two official fully equipped weather stations just 58 metres apart.

To recap I posted a review of the complex situation I found at Manston with several different operational screens there. A reader was able to ascertain from the Met Office where exactly the two current sites actually were, and I subsequently asked for anyone to help with number crunching (part 3.)

Coming across this last request only just recently, the meteorologist pointed out to me that the third part of my trilogy actually answered a large part of my own question. He told me to look at the graphs I had posted and the “Stats – last 7 days”.

The headline image above is for the longer running Manston site and shows the last 7 days up to 10:00 19/7/2025. The minimum recorded over that period is 0.4°C. Below is Manston No 2 station just those 58 metres away. {captured slightly later and showing the 11.00 reading}

The minimum recorded in the same last 7 day period was 1.62°C {note this unit records to the second decimal place unlike the original unit} Over just 58 metres at the same elevation the minima recorded varied by 1.2°C. On my part 3 report I had also shown comparative images and not noticed that over that period the minima differential was 0.6°C. In both cases the No 2 station recorded warmer.

I personally have tended to note high temperatures and (sadly) overlooked the effect of this warmer minimum on averaging. So what is causing this differential in open countryside with no shading? Whilst the Manston No 2 site may be only 58 metres from its elder partner, it is also the same distance nearer to the runway. Remember that Internationally agreed distance from the runway? “The exceptionally wide runway is almost certainly contributing to the temperature holding up overnight by storing daytime absorbed heat” – this is not my opinion but that of the local amateur meteorologist

I have been assured that the Met Office has been made aware of this level of discrepancy by a number of amateur meteorologists monitoring the situation. Replies to enquiries of why two sites have been running simultaneously for over 6 years are only the type of evasive answers I noted in part 2 of my review series. I have discovered a level of distrust of the Met Office from a most surprising source – meteorologists.

Further scanning the last 7 days numbers is very revealing. At 2:00 today (19/3/2025) Manston 2 (nearer the runway) was reading 0.6°C warmer and throughout the night was consistently above the older site. However, come sunrise and the influence of solar warming, the situation reverses with 0.6°C warmer reading at the older site by 9:00. Clearly two sites so close together should not be showing such discrepancies – there must be unnatural factors involved. Whilst I might cynically suggest the Met Office may soon retire the old station in lieu of its tripod mounted and fully mobile unit, I was somewhat astonished to have other well qualified people saying exactly the same.

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March 19, 2025 at 07:36AM

By Paul Homewood

 

 

h/t Ian Cunningham

 

 

Heat pumps were supposed to coming down in price, we were told. Instead the opposite has occurred.

The Telegraph report:

“The cost of fitting a heat pump has risen by a third in six years despite generous government grants – leading critics to accuse installers of profiteering.

Ministers want 600,000 heat pumps fitted each year by 2028, and hoped to cut the real term costs of installing one by 25pc compared to 2021.

But, the price of fitting an air-source heat pump actually increased by 33pc, from £9,686 to £12,951 in the six years to January 2025, according to Telegraph analysis of data from the trade standards body, MCS.

This is despite the fact the Government has since introduced grants worth up to £7,500 for each household – which were paid directly to installers.

Industry experts blamed a host of factors for the spike such as the rising cost of copper and energy, while a government spokesman said the figures did not account for inflation. But even after factoring in inflation, the cost of installing a heat pump has still risen £700 – despite promises from successive governments it would fall in real terms.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/real-reason-heat-pumps-are-eye-wateringly-expensive/

 

Add in a couple of thousand for replacement radiators and thousands more for insulation, and they become unaffordable for the vast majority of home owners.

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March 19, 2025 at 05:53AM

By Paul Homewood

I covered Steve Broderick’s research a few years ago, but it is now doubly relevant:

 

In 2017, Broderick submitted written evidence to a Parliamentary Select Committee, concerning his research into the impact of EVs on the UK electricity distribution network:

---

Written evidence from Stephen Broderick (EVD0062)

Basis of Opinion: This is my doctoral research area at Southampton University. The work is as yet incomplete (I am in my final year). To research the topic, I have developed a system able to simulate, study and manage networks with EVs undertaking various trip duties. Further, the below is informed opinion based on observing / modelling likely UK situations but not proven in practice.

Comments are the authors own and relate to home charging of EVs on existing Low Voltage (LV mains) distribution networks.

Summary: The UK Distribution network "as is" is adequate for immediate needs, but will be substantively overtaxed by unconstrained EV home charging (by up to 7:1), for EVs draw c. 7 kW for hours. These issues follow uptake of EVs i.e. minimal at first then overwhelming as years pass.

Consequences will depend on local circumstances, but have potential to include:

• power cuts (overloads of supply equipment => power equipment "blowing fuses")

• brown-outs (loss of sufficient voltage) potentially causing:

◦ home appliance damage and

◦ household fires

• potentially, a move to restrict EVs to (say) 1 in 7 homes.

Two general methods are seen to alleviate these situations:

1. reinforcement of the networks (asset replacement) – expensive, slow, disruptive
2. use of a control system capable of managing EV home charging.

Further, the EVs would need to obey the issued commands; this is not assured.

Note that the ICT / SG method does not provide a complete solution, but is expected to defer major costs for decades.

Background information to assist the reader:

1. A brief summary of technical terms is appended.
2. The UK “electricity grid” is a set of millions of connected components, individually selected to affordably perform a given goal. These parts have been installed in an as-needed / piecemeal manner since c. 1900. Many parts date from the 1950 / 1960’s
3. The grid can be broken into 3 main sections:
   1. Supply (the making of electricity)
   2. Transmission (sending electricity at high voltage around the country e.g. National Grid)
   3. Distribution (of power at medium and low voltage to customers e.g. "mains" 230 V)
4. Many papers have been published concerning EVs and "the grid"; however most relate to US networks – similar to the UK only at higher levels. The lower Distribution level is different, so to meet the challenges of different situations.

• US: adequate (occasionally challenged) Generation and Transmission. Strong Distribution which can provide 8 – 14 kW to each home simultaneously, the major load being Air Conditioning.

• The US Distribution system typically uses many “near-home” local transformers each supplying 1 – 4 houses;

• UK: adequate Generation, strong Transmission. Adequate Distribution (for present loads) able to provide 1 – 2 kW to each home simultaneously.

• The UK Distribution system typically uses a small number of “substations” with a transformer, each supplying 1 – 100’s of houses.

Reiterating the US / UK difference in Distribution capability:

◦ US: 8 – 14 kW per home, able to sustain peak loads for long periods vs.

◦ UK: 1 – 2 kW per home on average, able to support occasional higher loads due to averaging over many customers

Most published papers originate from the US so silently assume the US model. However the respective Distribution networks have quite different characteristics.

* * * Overseas studies and experience-based advice may not relate to the UK.

Some Numbers:

a) there are about 250,000 Distribution networks in the UK, each of individual nature;

b) the design of these has historically been guided by a measure called "ADMD" which has been set variously to c. 1 to 2 kW per supplied home. This is a statistical measure and assumes customers take random loads at random times;

c) to drive an "average" day’s distance (c. 27 mpd) an EV consumes c. 9 kWh at the wheel;

d) (at the time of writing) batteries loose c. 8% on charging and the same on discharging; the inverter electronics lose a similar percentage;

e) the daily average EV power draw (at the home charging point) is then consumed power plus losses i.e.

9 * 1.08 * 1.08 * 1.08 = 11.3 kWh

Other aspects cause losses; 12 kWh is a reasonable "EV supply average daily demand".

f) driving distances are, in general, dependant on location / nearness to a city. RAC studies suggest the following mileage ratios:

City : Urban : Rural of 1 : 1.4 : 2 (i.e. country dwellers drive twice as far as those in the city)

g) a modern EV home charger draws 7 kW.

A 100 Home Illustration

A 100 home development built in 2017 has an LV distribution network fitted to supply 150 kW simultaneously. An overload of c. 50% is possible for up to 8 hours (following this a period of cooling / low load is necessary). This network includes:

• substation (with transformer and switching)

• in-road cabling (3-phase 230 V per phase)

which has an asset value of c. £ 30 – 45 k.

If 100 EVs arrive in the evening and start to charge, the peak load is 700 kW and the distribution assets go into immediate substantive overload.

However the EVs require (on average) 100 * 12 kWh => 1,200 kWh of energy, which if supplied in a staggered manner over 10 hours is 120 kW continuous load thus doable.

This suggests that a local rationing or management system (able to pace demand intelligently) would help. A simplified version of this was successfully trialled in 2015 (My Electric Avenue).

Yet this has ignored the usual demand of the households; in winter they will need power for home use. In extremis, it may be necessary to upgrade (reinforce) local substations and cables.

Such reinforcement includes:

• replacing the transformer

• digging up the road and relaying cables

• a spend of c. £45 k per 100 served homes i.e.

25 million * £ 450 = £11.25 billion (approx assets costs; a "broad-brush" estimate)

Which, after manpower costs plus profit is added may be perhaps x 2 or x3 as much.

Note that the politics to this falls into three sections:

1. the money – who pays?
2. the inconvenience, primarily digging up the roads to relay cables (especially in cities)
3. the manpower – with the best will in the world, this is a project which may take a decade or more – with present manpower. To achieve this faster requires more hands.

Hence, a new generation of electrical engineers and technicians are needed.

The initial threat though is simultaneous arrival and charging; even with 1 in 7 of homes having an EV the system is at full capacity in the early evening.

NOTE This ignores home-heating by Heat Pumps (HP) scheduled from c. 2040 on as part of the UK’s CO2 minimisation initiative.

** HP alone impose more load than EVs; immediate reinforcement will be necessary **

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/82722/html/

In short, Broderick states that the vast majority of homes distribution networks provide on average between 1 and 2 kW to each home.

If every home on the network switches on their 7 kW EV chargers at the same time, the system will be quickly overloaded. Even if EV charging is staggered over a ten hour period, there will be little spare capacity for other uses – not least heat pumps, which the government wants us to run at night as they would cripple the grid if all switched in early morning.

The only robust solution is to embark on a rapid upgrade of the nation’s distribution grid, but it is clearly now much too late to have this ready in time for the EV rollout.

Remember that when Broderick submitted his evidence, the petrol ban was still set for 2040. He has also pointed out that his figures of EV demand are probably understated, because EVs have become heavier in the interim and don’t allow for electric vans. There is also the proliferation of two and three car households, who may want to charge all their EVs.

The only alternative suggested is to use smart charging to stagger EV charging – in effect a local rationing system. I understand that there may be provisions to do this when there is a shortage of power on the grid, but this does not seem to extend to the local level rationing which would be needed.

In any event, if drivers are faced with the prospect of not having their car fully charged next morning, I suspect many will simply resort to bypassing their smart chargers.

Since Broderick’s report to Parliament, nothing actually appears to have been done.

But within ten years, most of the cars on the road will be electric, by which time this problem will become real and widespread.

The clock is ticking!

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March 19, 2025 at 05:08AM

Did someone forget that it has to be cold for rain to turn to snow? No but we read that “(the analysis) suggests that global warming can increase snowfall when there is an inflow of strong cold air.” Work that one out, as the report goes on to mention ‘an unusually harsh winter’. The weather attributionists here even claim, or pretend, to know what percent of snow at different elevations was ‘due’ to global warming. Such spurious accuracy suggests that data is being manufactured from climate models for a specific purpose.
– – –
Global warming contributed to record snowfall in northern and eastern Japan in February, increasing the amount of snow by up to 10%, the Meteorological Agency said in a report released Tuesday.

The country experienced an unusually harsh winter, with heavy precipitation in wide areas this year, says the Japan Times. Last year, it had its hottest year on record.

A Meteorological Agency committee studying extreme weather said such conditions were due to a mix of factors, including Westerlies meandering above the skies, curving southward around Japan and bringing cold air with it.

Based on “event attribution” research by a group of scientists who conducted weather simulations with and without climate change, the agency committee concluded that the two heavy snow events observed in February were influenced by global warming.

Warming is known to increase the volume of precipitation because atmospheric and sea temperatures create more water vapor [Talkshop comment – except when they don’t], which turns into snow when exposed to cold air.

In one snow event studied — which hit Tohoku and eastern Japan, including Yamagata and Niigata prefectures — global warming caused precipitation to increase by 6% in the week from Feb. 3, the researchers said. The increase attributable to warming was steeper, at 7%, in mountainous areas 500 meters above sea level or higher, while the increase was milder on flatlands in lower altitudes, at 4%.

Meanwhile, in Hokkaido’s Tokachi area, the amount of snowfall for the peak six hours from the night of Feb. 3 to the morning of Feb. 4 increased 10% due to climate change, the researchers said.

“Snowfall and snow accumulation are expected to go down with global warming,” the agency said in a statement. “But (the analysis) suggests that global warming can increase snowfall when there is an inflow of strong cold air.”

Full article here.

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March 19, 2025 at 04:50AM