Theories of Climate Change. Invitation to Zoom # 3

I’ve been arguing with my husband.  Not about anything important.  Just about science, and in particular theories of climate change.  He agrees with Dennis Armstrong who wrote me, “We are not aware that there is a current theory of human induced climate change. There are assertions that the burning fossil fuels by humans generates CO2 emissions, which is causing climate warming/change.  … it can’t explain climate change past, present and future.”

In my next Zoom, Number 3, following on from interviews with Bill Kininmonth and Ivan Kennedy, I will explain why I disagree.  I will make the case as follows and with examples:

  1. The current theory has a focus on radiative balance that is perceived to be perturbed by increasing levels of carbon dioxide.
  1. The current theory dominates thinking including by scientists who are darlings of conservative politics who often tangle themselves within its strictures.
  1. The current theory has been disproven over and over, but it doesn’t go away because rebuttals never win.
  1. The history of science shows that failed scientific theories are only ever replaced (never disproven), which is why there is such a pressing need for a new theory of climate change.

I am allowing 2 hours, with perhaps 30 minutes for my opening remarks and the rest of the time for questions and discussion.

I am planning this as three sessions to variously fit in with friends across different time zones.

SESSION NO. 2.  CALLING LONDON

When: Mar 29, 2025 11:00 AM LONDON

Register in advance for this meeting:

https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/AEic7FtGR0-1pprt-EDz8w

 

SESSION NO. 3. CALLING HOUSTON

When: Mar 29, 2025 03:00 PM Central Time (US and Canada)

Register in advance for this meeting:

https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tHsbs5CmRYuR4pnrAXiKOg

 

SESSION NO. 1. CALLING HOME

When: Mar 29, 2025 12:00 PM Brisbane

Register in advance for this meeting:

https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/8G7Ze9hSRmG4x1MNbVCvvg

 

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.

I have received requests for the audio/video of my interviews with Ivan Kennedy and Bill Kininmonth.  I am learning how to edit audio and how to develop this and other interviews, including one I did with Alex Pope, into a podcast series.   So, for everyone who did not attend previous webinars and meetings with Ivan Kennedy and Bill Kininmonth respectively, the information is not lost to you forever, but just until I launch my new podcast series that will perhaps be in July.

Thanks for your patience.

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March 13, 2025 at 02:16AM

Don’t let Putin steal Georgia’s future

Georgian Dream startlingly announced that it was suspending efforts to join the EU.

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March 13, 2025 at 01:58AM

CFACT: Stop Offshore Wind!

Ed note: One of the nation’s leading environmental organizations, Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, has done their homework on the ecological harms of offshore wind turbines. This letter to Secretary Burgum of the U.S. Department of the Interior from David Wojick (CFACT) and David Stevenson (Center for Energy & Environment, Caesar Rodney Institute) follows.

A previous post, Whales and Offshore Wind: Trump Time (Wojick has built a case), detailed the forty-one (!) posts of David Wojick on this issue. The latest is to put the evidence into political action now that look-the-other-way Podesta-Biden-Harris (and a lot of hypocritical ‘environmental’ groups) has been replaced by a new Administration. The letter and accompanying information follow.

RE: Reviewing legitimacy of Offshore Wind Project approvals

Dear Secretary Burgum,

It is with a sense of real urgency we are writing to you today. We much appreciate President Trump’s Emergency Order for temporary withdrawal of all areas on the outer continental shelf from offshore wind leasing. We count twenty-two projects that have been paused. However, eleven projects
have already received approvals with four of those under construction. Leasing and permitting will be reviewed for these approved projects but may take time.

In the meantime, we expect the review will find serious problems with the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Letters of Authorization (LOA) for Incidental Take of endangered and threatened species. Those improperly approved LOAs impact dozens of species and thousands of animals, none more so than the North Atlantic right whale. By our count the LOAs authorized cumulative Take of 548 individuals from a population of around 338. A summary of concerns about the LOAs follows along with a list of projects with LOAs.

We recommend the Interior Department work with NMFS to immediately revoke the Letters of Authorization and order an immediate cession of construction until a review is complete.

Thank you for your consideration.

——————————-
List of projects with approvals that have begun construction:

Momentum Wind; Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind; Vineyard Wind 1; Revolution Wind; Sunrise Wind

List of projects with approvals that have not begun construction:

South Coast Wind; New England Wind; Empire Wind 1; Empire Wind 2; Atlantic Shores South; Marwin Wind; Momentum Wind

Offshore wind permit deficiency analysis: The Dominion example President Trump’s Executive Order pausing the permitting of wind projects is based on this finding: “In light of various alleged legal deficiencies underlying the Federal Government’s leasing and permitting of onshore and offshore wind projects, the consequences of which may lead to grave harm…”

In the past CFACT has criticized numerous cases of offshore wind permitting as being deficient by omitting key issues hence being incomplete. Below is a listing of some of the worst cases using Dominion’s CVOW as an example many of these critiques were not specifically directed at Dominion and all permitted projects to date likely suffer from similar deficiencies.

In each case there are a number of formal documents required for each approval. These are the MMPA Incidental Take Authorization, the ESA Biological Opinion, the Final NEPA EIS, and the approved COP. One or more of these permitting documents is deficient in each case because it ignores a critical issue.

Here are some of the worst deficiencies in permitting identified to date by CFACT:

  1. No EIS for the NMFS Incidental Take Authorization
    Perhaps the most glaring deficiency is the lack of an EIS for the NMFS harassment taking
    authorization. In Dominion’s case just under 60,000 takings by acoustic harassment are
    authorized during project construction. The authorization document says there must be an EIS
    under NEPA for this action. It then says that the overall Dominion project EIS provides that
    harassment EIS, but the project EIS never mentions the taking. Thus, the required EIS was never
    done
  1. No consideration of the impact of harassment in the Biological Opinion including
    cumulative impacts
    In the Biological Opinion the same argument applies albeit not so simply. While the project EIS
    does not even mention the harassment authorization the BiOp devotes just a brief section to it.
    They just list the harassment numbers by endangered whale species and say that all the practical
    mitigation is planned. What is missing is any assessment of the adverse impact of harassment
    which is what the whale death issue is specifically about. The permit documents never address
    this crucial issue of harassment induced death as well as the cumulative impact of harassment
    caused by other permitted offshore wind projects.
  2. No harassment authorization for the turbine installation ship
    Another harassment case is that the pile driving ship Orion, which has been installing
    Dominion’s monopile foundations, uses multiple thrusters to maintain position. The thruster
    noise has been measured, and it exceeds the threshold for harassment. But that noise was not
    included in the harassment application so has not been authorized. This will likely be true for any
    monopile installation ship and for tower, turbine and blade installation as well. The Dominion
    project harassment authorization needs to be revised to include all the projected installation
    vessel noise as do all other similarly situated projects.
  3. No consideration of using suction caissons instead of pile driving
    Suction caissons are a wind turbine foundation design that eliminates the need for the incredibly
    loud giant monopiles. Of all the ways that offshore wind threatens whales monopiles are the
    worst, while suction caissons are benign. The Dominion COP, the BOEM EIS and the NMFS
    harassment take authorization all go into great lengths regarding minor mitigation policies to
    reduce the threat of construction to endangered whales. But none considers using suction
    caissons instead of pile driving.
  4. Violation of the critical MMPA “small numbers” rule
    The Marine Mammal Protection Act stipulates that incidental take authorizations are to be
    limited to small numbers of protected mammals. Dominion’s acoustic harassment take
    authorization is for more than 50,000 dolphins, which clearly is not a small number. The
    authorized take of the severely endangered right whale is 5% of the entire population so very far
    from a small number. If this amount of taking is allowed per MW for every leased project the
    total taking would be several times the population.
  5. No consideration of sediment plumes from ocean currents flowing through wind facilities. There is now sizable scientific literature on the fact that ocean currents flowing through a standing wind array will create an ongoing sediment plume which is a potentially severe environmental impact. The Dominion Biological Opinion only considers the transient sediment plumes generated by cable trenching. There is no consideration of the operational sediment plume that could last as long as the project stands in the ocean.
  6. Failure to assess the project’s contribution to the overall effects of multiple projects. Compared to the simpler aggregate of the individual initiatives, the cumulative impact can be far larger. Avoiding project combinations, for example, can greatly lengthen the amount of time spent in regions with a lot of ship activity or fishing. Cumulative impact should be covered in all the key Dominion project evaluation documents, but none do this.
  7. Continuous operating noise is not considered According to several studies, the massive turbine array’s operating noise will be higher than the acoustic harassment threshold and can last for twenty years. This noise is not covered by the Dominion harassment authority. This impact lasts the life of the project and must be included in the assessment.
  8. Physical presence-based harassment is not considered Only acoustic harassment is covered by the Dominion harassment authorization. Harassment is defined by the MMPA as any activity altering behavior of protected species. Avoiding the 150 square mile array of turbines is a significant behavioral shift that could have negative or deadly effects. As a result, the project’s physical presence itself creates harassment.

The post CFACT: Stop Offshore Wind! appeared first on Master Resource.

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March 13, 2025 at 01:05AM

Guardian Falsely Claims Climate Change is Intensifying Cyclones

Essay by Eric Worrall

Contradictory evidence is now “uncertainty”?

As Trump attacks US science agencies, ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred ushers in a fresh wave of climate denial in Australia

Adam Morton

…

In Australia, the past week has seen a fresh wave of climate denial as ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred approached and hit the southern Queensland coast. News Corp outlets, in particular, have run straw man arguments attacking people that have forcefully linked the storm to the climate crisis.

Some commentators have pointed out that southern Queensland has had cyclones before. Others have suggested there is uncertainty in the data about the pace and way in which they are changing, and that climate change didn’t “cause” Alfred. Well, yes. That’s all correct, of course, but hardly the point.

What they mostly haven’t said is that the ocean and atmosphere are demonstrably warmer than even just a few years ago. Or that this means the most intense storms formed in warmer conditions carry more energy and more water. Or that the conditions under which tropical cyclones can form are moving south as the planet heats up.

…

The evidence is that this is making tropical cyclones less frequent but more intense. There is data suggesting they also tend to last longer. Greater intensity plus time equals heightened risk of damage and casualties. It doesn’t mean that every cyclone or extreme storm will be more damaging than in the past. It does mean that when one comes, the potential for it to carry enough energy to wreak significant havoc is rising, not falling.

…

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2025/mar/11/ex-tropical-cyclone-alfred-climate-denial-australia-trump-attacks-us-science-agencies

The graph at the top of the page shows both cyclone numbers and intensity are in long term decline. There is no “uncertainty”, this is reality.

It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong. – Richard Feynman.

The statement “this [ocean heating] is making tropical cyclones less frequent but more intense” is not supported by the evidence that tropical cyclones are declining both in frequency and intensity.

Why would anyone believe something which is so blatantly false? I don’t know why journalist Adam Morton holds this view, but the idea that models are more important than observations appears to be deep rooted in the climate community.

Are climate modellers putting the effect before the cause when it comes to long term cyclone frequency and intensity vs surface temperature? Because there is a very simple possible explanation for why atmospheric and ocean surface temperature is rising but cyclone frequency and intensity are decreasing – cyclone frequency and intensity likely have an inverse relationship with ocean surface and atmospheric heat content. Cyclones are powerful dissipators of surface heat, an uptick in cyclones would cause an immediate and sustained drop in surface temperature.

Bonus points for anyone who has a good theory for what causes more cyclones – I mean a theory which doesn’t contradict observations.


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March 13, 2025 at 12:01AM