Bramham DCNN 4076/4077 – The curious contrast of NIAB sites – Good, bad or indifferent?

53.86887 -1.31879 Met Office CIMO Assessed…VARIABLE! Installed 1/1/1952 Archived temperature records from 1/1/1959. Relocated with new DCNN but NOT renamed 1/1/2005.

Bramham weather station lies on the site of the former Bramham Moor Aerodrome also once known as RAF Tadcaster. The site is now home to the National Institute of Agricultural Botany (NIAB) Headley Hall who operates a number of other research sites around the UK notably at Cambridge and East Malling. Bramham also has an equally questionable historic record.

Firstly the current weather station sits in open country – I deliberately wide angled the headline image to demonstrate the absence of any roads or buildings within 200 metres of the site. The only real issue here may be the artificial nature of the changing landscape in experimental fields, however, I feel that level of criticism here is potentially just nit picking. This should be a Class 1 site. The Met Office also agreed with that evaluation in their listings I received under Freedom of Information Act for years 2021,2022, 2023 and the (previously) most recent one I published in 2024. However, in reviewing NIAB’s East Malling site I became concerned at the ongoing accuracy of Met Office CIMO assessments and questioned their evaluation supplying aerial imagery displaying recent site compromising issues…..more later on that point. I also requested an up to date 2025 CIMO assessment list which produced some surprising alterations.

I am currently analysing the changes and will publish the new full list shortly – {providing the Met Office don’t slap a “D” notice on me!} , in the interim , here is the current Bramham Listing {I am sharing a view of my laptop with readers.}

Out of the blue, Bramham has dropped from a pristine Class 1 to the lowest classification for which there are actually qualifying parameters of Class 4 and a stated additional inaccuracy due to siting of 2°C. – Why?

It becomes increasingly more difficult to understand the Met Office’s logic when considered in conjunction with their response to my recent querying of the NIAB East Malling site. I enquired as follows and included the fully referenced image:

“The above weather station is shown as CIMO Class 1 for temperature and humidity as per the recent listing supplied to me by the Met Office. Can you please advise whether this classification is still correct given the obvious encroachment of poly tunnels on the site.

The subsequent reply was typical of the manner in which they respond:

“Dear Mr Sanders

We can confirm that East Malling weather station was assessed as CIMO class 1 for temperature and humidity on its most recent inspection. This is in keeping with the guidance set out in Annex 1.D of the WMO guide to instruments and methods of observation – volume 1. Please see the link below for further details. 

https://library.wmo.int/records/item/41650-guide-to-instruments-and-methods-of-observation

Kind regards,

Weather Desk”

Translating the above into plain English, “”We have no interest in your observations of facts and we are always correct because we say so”. A response that comes across as somewhat arrogantly stupid.

I will now enquire quite why the Met Office feels Bramham has suddenly (and presumably irretrievably or something would surely be done to correct matters) become far worse than the risible Class 3 Heathrow site. I will advise of the response I get but I do not expect it to be any more coherent

I would also add I deliberately included Braemar in the above latest CIMO extract as it has now been downgraded from Class 3 to class 4 – is that similarly now much worse than Heathrow? I personally considered it Class 2.

Further consideration of Bramham also displays a “creative ” site history. The site has had two separate District County Network Numbers (DCNN) but only one historic name. This is quite unusual for Met office stations generally – but not for NIAB sites. Normally when sites are relocated only a short distance not significantly altering the area climatologically then no renumbering nor renaming is deemed necessary. However, ” where the exposure at the new site is sufficiently different that a detectable impact on the measured climatology is judged likely, it is appropriate that observations from the new site are labelled by a different set of identifiers.” 

The Bramham site was relocated in 2004. The new DCNN number (changing from 4076 to 4077) indicates the change requirement due to significant site alterations but no readily noticeable name alteration nor addition (i.e. “Number 2”) was actually made. I am very confident that when mathematical analysts (not meteorologists) apply their “skills” to interpreting readings (no more than bald numbers on a page/screen) that they are almost certainly unaware that they are actually, metaphorically speaking, comparing apples with oranges. In both my reviews of Cambridge NIAB and East Malling I demonstrated unadvised relocations. Which normal data analysts (“climate scientists”) would question the veracity of numbers put in front of them when supplied by perceived reliable “Authority”?

The scale of the move is visible from identifying the original location indicated at (under “Remarks”) Easting 44100, Northing 441200. A fraction shy of 900 metres from a roadside is not an inconsiderable alteration.

In summary, for reasons currently known only to the Met Office, the formerly pristine Bramham site has been relegated to “junk” status with no explanation nor apparent reasoning. It has been surreptitiously relocated potentially rendering historic comparisons dubious. The Met Office displays arrogant disregard for factual evidence and displays its data in yet more misleading ways. The current Bramham site is almost certainly a good indicator of any recent changes in average temperature but likley only has a reliable 20 year record.

On the basis of all the above I, for one, would certainly not endorse any radical changes to our lifestyles, economy or drastic changes to our former traditional energy industry based on data supplied by the Met Office.

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February 16, 2025 at 08:49AM

Wrong, Earth.com, Cocoa Production Is Not ‘Under Extreme Climate Pressure’ It’s Improving

From ClimateREALISM

By H. Sterling Burnett

Earth.com published a story claiming climate change is causing cocoa production to fall in West and Central Africa. This is false. Data show that cocoa production has increased during the last few decades of modest warming, rather than falling. Part of the reason for this is improved growing conditions in those regions and carbon dioxide fertilization.

In the Earth.com story, “Cocoa production in Africa is under extreme climate pressure,” writer Andrei Ionescu, references a study published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, which claims that climate change may result in a 50 percent drop in production across West and Central Africa, a region which accounts for 70 percent of global cocoa production. Ionescu goes further claiming, “Climate change is substantially affecting cocoa production in West and Central Africa.” The problem is the data falsifies this claim, and the projections are based on the worst-case scenario projections from flawed climate models.

Climate Realism and Climate at a Glance have written multiple times previously concerning the admission by climate modelers that the models run way to hot. Accordingly, projections of impacts dependent on the models and their high emission scenarios cannot be trusted. Neither scientific research nor public policies should be built upon assumptions and projections that are known to be fatally flawed.

Leaving this aside, data from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization show that, like crops everywhere, cocoa production varies from year. But accounting for interannual ups and downs, over the recent period of modest climate change, cocoa production has generally increased in West and Central Africa.

The research in particular focuses on cocoa production in Cameroon, the Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire), Ghana, and Nigeria. FAO data for those countries show that since 1990:

  • In Cameroon cocoa bean production has grown by more than 157 percent;
  • In the Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire) cocoa bean production increased by more than a 194 percent (nearly doubling, and setting a new record in 2023);
  • In Ghana cocoa bean production expanded by just over 122 percent;
  • And in Nigeria cocoa bean production grew by almost 17 percent.

Each of these countries experienced multiple years of record setting production over the past three and a half decades of climate change. (See the figure below).

With these facts in mind, there is no evidence whatsoever that climate change is putting cocoa production under extreme pressure, except perhaps in the imagination of Earth.com’s Ionescu.

Globally carbon dioxide has resulted in a general greening of the Earth with significantly improved crop production. There is good reason to believe that rising carbon dioxide concentrations have significantly contributed to West and Central Africa’s improved cocoa production, as well. There is no good reason found in botany, agronomy, or climatology – outside of climate model projections– for thinking growing conditions in the region will change for the worse.

Even the researchers themselves noted that under the various scenarios they projected, some areas in the region might see little or no change in yields going forward, others might see increased production, and still others decreases. In general, the “[r]esults from the mixed-effects models indicated that effects of climate variability on both and (with and without CO2, for all GCMs [general circulation models]) were not very strong, but that effects depended on the selected climate scenario.”

In fact, the study’s authors honestly admitted that as a result of a number of factors their findings were extremely uncertain. Among those limiting factors were the spatial scale of climate models, a lack of data availability, insufficient knowledge of potential land use changes, unknown interannual climate variability, and more. In addition, they acknowledged that the cocoa simulation model they used “has not been validated in the context of climate change or CO2 rise studies.”

These important admissions were entirely absent from Ionescu’s Earth.com story, which might lead one to believe there is more certainty in the projections than, in fact, there is.

Ionescu noted that the researchers said deforestation due to burgeoning populations expanding into tropical forests and land conversions could also result in a decline in cocoa production. This may be true, it has happened elsewhere for other forest dependent nuts and fruits when land was converted to row crops or urban expansion, but that has nothing to do with climate change.

In the end, the Earth.com story was long on alarming speculation pushing the catastrophic climate change narrative, and short on detailed analysis. The author showed no evidence of reading the report that he cites carefully and in full, or that if he did, that he understood its nuance and caveats related to its results – at least if he did, he didn’t discuss it in his story. There is also no evidence in the story that the writer checked any real-world data before asserting climate change is harming and will threaten cocoa production. That’s sloppy journalism any way you cut it.

H. Sterling Burnett

H. Sterling Burnett, Ph.D., is the Director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy and the managing editor of Environment & Climate News. In addition to directing The Heartland Institute’s Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy, Burnett puts Environment & Climate News together, is the editor of Heartland’s Climate Change Weekly email, and the host of the Environment & Climate News Podcast.


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February 16, 2025 at 08:07AM

Parliament heat pump drive suspended over ‘noise complaints’


Heat pumps can be too noisy and too power hungry even for net zero supporters it seems. The public aren’t too impressed by them either, judging by the lack of sales. Government propaganda about an imagined climate crisis is having little effect when it comes to home heating choices.
– – –
A planned rollout of heat pumps in Parliament has been paused amid concerns over their noise and effectiveness, The Telegraph can reveal.

There are three air source heat pumps in the House of Commons buildings, but no new installations have been made since 2022, according to data released under the Freedom of Information Act.

And a report – seen by the The Telegraph – into the feasibility of installing a new heat pump into the modern office block, Portcullis House, raised significant concerns over their acoustics and power supply.

It has plunged Labour into a fresh hypocrisy row as opposition MPs said it was proof heat pumps “don’t work” – despite the Government’s push to install them into residential homes.

Richard Tice, Reform MP, said: “Parliament has installed three heat pumps, and every one of them has faced complaints for consuming too much electricity and generating excessive noise.

“Despite this, Labour pushes ahead with forcing the rest of us to adopt them, while refusing to use heat pumps themselves.”

He added: “This perfectly highlights just how out of touch our leadership is with the British public.”
. . .
One parliamentary staffer said that Portcullis House was “always freezing”, and that their colleagues often complained about their working conditions.
. . .
Complaints from homeowners about heat pumps have focused on the noise of up to 60 decibels that they make, as well as the space they take up.

In November last year, Labour relaxed planning rules for heat pumps, meaning homeowners could install the devices within a metre of their neighbour’s property.

Full article here.
– – –
Image: Domestic Air Source Heat Pump [credit: UK Alternative Energy]

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February 16, 2025 at 07:47AM

Constraint Payments Scandal

By Paul Homewood

Great letter by John Tullock in the Shetland Times:

 

KvpCaXAWXr5anpuI

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February 16, 2025 at 06:19AM