Roger Caiazza

Here is another example of a jurisdiction desperately trying to put a positive spin on their floundering net-zero transition efforts.

The New York State Energy Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA) has an important role in the Climate Act implementation.  They publish “featured stories” that “take you inside the work to build a clean energy future in New York.” The term “propaganda” implies the dissemination of information, often biased or misleading, to promote a particular agenda.  That description perfectly describes the February 11 Clean Energy Growth story “EVs hit record numbers in NY and the US”.

New York’s Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) established a New York “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It includes two 2030 targets: an interim emissions reduction target of a 40% GHG reduction by 2030 and a mandate that 70% of the electricity must come from renewable energy by 2030. The Climate Action Council (CAC) was responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlined how to “achieve the State’s bold clean energy and climate agenda.”  After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan was finalized at the end of 2022.  Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation. 

This article compares the numbers in the “EVs hit record numbers in NY and the US” story and the numbers in the Scoping Plan.

EVs Numbers in NY

NYSERDA gave the following numbers for New York based on this reference:

In 2024, New York saw 90,221 new EV registrations, bringing the total number of EV drivers to more than 271,000 at the start of 2025. EV registration in 2023 totaled 78,950, meaning that 2024 saw a 14.3% jump in electric vehicle adoption across New York State.

Of the new EVs registered in New York State, 54,664 were battery-electric models and 35,557 were plug-in hybrid electric vehicles^[2]. Battery-electric EVs run completely on electricity, whereas plug-in hybrids have an all-electric range of around 20 to 50 miles and an internal combustion engine fueled by gasoline that kicks in once the battery power is exhausted.

Scoping Plan EV Numbers

The Scoping Plan is New York’s blueprint for meeting the Climate Act mandates.  NYSERDA hired a contractor who developed a list of control strategies,  estimated costs and emission reductions, turned a crank and conjured up  three decarbonizing scenario “plans”  for New York to meet the aspirational Climate Act schedule.  Feasibility, accountability, and transparency are not valid descriptors of the results produced. 

After no little effort I found the projected EV data.  Table 1 lists the projected 2024 EV sales for the three scenarios compared to the observed sales. Scenario 1 (Strategic Use of Low-Carbon Fuels) was the most realistic projection, the other two (Accelerated Transition Away from Combustion and Beyond 85% Reductions) were based on fantasies from the beginning.  For our purposes, note that battery electric vehicle sales were 10% lower than projected and plug in hybrid vehicle sales were 34% lower than Scenario 1 last year.

 Table 1: 2024 NY EV Sales Comparison Scoping Plan Scenarios vs. Observed Sales

Comparing the Strategic Use of Low-Carbon Fuels scenario projections over time shows that 2023 was te only year when the observed Battery Electric sales exceeded the projections.  The Plugin Hybrid vehicle sales exceeded projections only in the first year. 

Table 2: EV Sales Comparison Strategic Use of Low-Carbon Fuels Projection vs. Observed Sales

The trends are shown in Figure 1.  The Scoping Plan modeling projects that Battery Electric sales will increase sharply in the future.  The modeling also projects that Plugin Hybrid sales will peak in 2026 and then tail off. 

Figure 1: EV Sales Comparison Strategic Use of Low-Carbon Fuels Projection vs. Observed Sales

Discussion

Trying to estimate how every sector will be affected by changes in energy use and fuels in the NYSERDA sponsored modeling for the Climate Act implementation is a massive effort.  The additional effort required to completely document the reduction strategies, emissions changes expected, and costs for each strategy undoubtedly led to the decision to not provide sufficient information for meaningful stakeholder review.  Conveniently, the lack of transparency means that stakeholders have difficulty asking embarrassing questions.  However, New York State is proposing a complete transformation of all facets of the energy system of the state at a likely cost of over a trillion dollars so in my opinion, the lack of comprehensive documentation is unacceptable.

Attempting to verify the Scoping Plan projections to observations is difficult.  Given these results, the obfuscation is likely deliberate.  In 2024 the Battery Electric vehicle sales were 10% less than projected.  This is not a good result given that the projection was made three years ago.  The model projects that sales will rapidly increase in 2026 and beyond. Note that Plugin Hybrids are not good enough for New York’s zero-emissions aspiration so the modeling projects that sales will peak and tail off.  

My problem with the modeling results is that they are too convenient.  I am convinced that the projections just interpolated between the Climate Act goals and current conditions to quantify vehicle sales.  The rationale driving the sales is not documented.  Why does the state expect that electric vehicle sales will increase as projected?

Up until Trump paused the program there was a Federal mandate that said all vehicles sold at a certain date will be electric.  All the mandates and incentives for the manufacturers are fruitless if the public says no thanks.  In this case there is no evidence that there is pent up demand for electric vehicles as shown by the result that Ford lost $5.1 billion in 2024 and $4.7 billion in its electric vehicle business.  Common sense says the projected sales trajectory is wishful thinking.

Conclusion

New York electric vehicle sales are not meeting the projections necessary to meet the Climate Act mandates.  NYSERDA’s reports describing “record sales” don’t bother to mention that fact.  The lack of evidence that the electric vehicle transportation sector emission reduction plan will work is one more reason that New York State needs to pause the process and determine if the plans are feasible before more money is squandered.   I suspect that this is a universal problem for all similar initiatives.  No number of cheerful claims of record sales will be able to hide the facts much longer.

Roger Caiazza blogs on New York energy and environmental issues at Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York.  This represents his opinion and not the opinion of any of his previous employers or any other company with which he has been associated.