UN carbon dioxide emission goals unachievable by 2050 despite tech advances, model finds


Confirmation that net zero so-called climate targets are a pipe dream. Population increases and lack of credible options won’t be overcome by then. Does the conclusion change by moving the date further out? Seems unlikely barring miracles.
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Most countries are relying on a combination of technological advances and infrastructure changes to meet their goals for greenhouse gas emissions reductions, says Phys.org.

However, a new model from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev environmental researchers shows that will likely not be enough and additional factors must be considered.

Their model was presented in Nature Sustainability.

Rising global populations and their increased consumption indicate technological and infrastructural changes will not suffice, according to Prof. Raziel Riemer, Prof. Meidad Kissinger and Dr. Na’ama Teschner.

Despite significant investment in technology and infrastructure, demographic growth and accompanying rising individual consumption will likely offset reductions leading countries to miss their 2050 targets.

The global population is expected to grow by 20% by 2050.

Israel is a particularly interesting case study because of the steady demographic growth the country experiences. However, the model is applicable to all countries.

The model examined the expected implications of population growth, changes in personal consumption habits in Israel, and the implementation of technological developments to reduce emissions related to areas such as electricity, transportation, water, food, and construction.

The findings indicate that despite the large investments in technology and infrastructure, the accepted steps are expected to contribute to reducing emissions per person by 65%, but due to the continued expected population growth, Israel’s carbon footprint will decrease by only 33% while water and land use will increase.

“Despite significant achievements in technology and infrastructure, the expected population growth and the increase in personal consumption may neutralize the reduction in emissions,” explained Prof. Riemer. “Our model shows that achieving 100% electricity generation from renewable sources is an essential step, but additional categories such as food production must also be addressed immediately.”

Full article here.
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Image: US coal train [credit: Wikipedia]

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February 11, 2025 at 06:24AM

Exposing The Battery Backup Con

By Paul Homewood

 

Paul Burgess always produces excellent videos.

Here he debunks the battery storage myth:

 

 

 

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February 11, 2025 at 06:00AM

PAC Slam Miliband’s Carbon Capture Plans

By Paul Homewood

h/t Dennis Ambler

The Committee of Public Accounts has slammed Miliband’s decision to waste £22 billion on unproven carbon capture:

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While lessons learned from past failures in introducing technology, PAC report warns Govt has not assessed likely impact on consumer energy bills of carbon capture programme.

Government’s backing of unproven, first-of-a-kind technology to reach net zero is high-risk. In a report published today, the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) calls on Government to assess whether its full carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS) programme will be affordable for taxpayers and consumers, given wider pressures on energy bills and the cost of living.

CCUS sees the capture and storage underground of carbon before it is released into the atmosphere and is viewed by the Government as essential to its legally mandated net zero by 2050 goals. There are no examples of CCUS technology operating at scale in the UK. The PAC’s inquiry heard that CCUS may not capture as much carbon as expected, with international examples showing that Government’s expectations for its performance are far from guaranteed. 

The report notes recent scientific evidence that producing liquid natural gas, which will be used to run several CCUS projects, leaks more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than previously thought. This could undermine the rationale for pursuing certain schemes, and the PAC calls on Government to consider the impact of up-to-date scientific understanding on CCUS.

The report finds that Government has learnt from previous failed attempts to support CCUS, with the first two projects expected to begin operating in 2028.  It notes that three-quarters of the almost-£22bn envisaged to support the projects will come from levies on consumers who are already facing some of the highest energy bills in the world. But the report finds the Government has not yet looked at the likely financial impact of CCUS on households.

The PAC’s inquiry further found that neither of the contracts for the two new CCUS projects include any provision for the Government to share the profits or for consumers to benefit from lower energy bills should things go well. This is despite any such profits, which could be significant if the programme is successful, being a result of early public support. The report calls on Government to introduce mechanisms to make sure taxpayers and consumers benefit financially from the success of all future CCUS projects that they have supported. 

The Government downgraded its ambitions for CCUS in 2024, with a target of storing 20 to 30 million tonnes per year of CO2 by 2030 now seen as no longer achievable. No revised targets have yet been announced. The PAC’s report notes that this creates a shortfall in Government’s pathway to net zero, with the now-abandoned targets leaving it unclear how the Government will meet its legally binding goals. The PAC’s report calls for new targets to be set out as a matter of urgency. 

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/127/public-accounts-committee/news/205139/carbon-capture-high-degree-of-uncertainty-whether-risky-investment-by-govt-will-pay-off/

The language is diplomatic, as is usual with a Parliamentary Committee which needs to produce a consensus opinion.

But make no mistake, this is a damning report.

First of all, there is no getting away from the fact that this mad policy will cost every household in the country over £800, for no tangible benefit to them. The cost will certainly end up much higher, as CfDs will be index linked, and projects like these have a habit of costing the government more than planned.

Carbon capture is, by definition, a pointless and wasteful process. Why make electricity from natural gas, and then waste part of that energy at great cost in order to take carbon dioxide out of it?

The PAC sums the issue up nicely:

“CCUS sees the capture and storage underground of carbon before it is released into the atmosphere and is viewed by the Government as essential to its legally mandated net zero by 2050 goals”

In a sane world, you would change the law, not waste £22 billion.

But the problems with CCUS go much deeper than cost issues. Nobody in the world has found a way to strip out all of the carbon dioxide – indeed Miliband’s schemes will be lucky to take out half.

On top of those remaining emissions are the ones upstream, particularly if LNG is used, as the PAC points out. There are always emissions at the well head, followed by a lot more involved with the liquifying and shipping operations. And as CCUS uses more natural gas than a normal CCGT, these upstream emissions are multiplied further.

In reality, emissions from a conventional CCGT using North Sea gas will probably be lower than using LNG in a CCUS plant.

Of course, at the heart of this lies the fact that Miliband is desperate for every bit of dispatchable power he can get his hands on, regardless of the cost, practicability or amount of CO2 saved.

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February 11, 2025 at 05:33AM

Most countries miss UN deadline for new climate targets

BRUSSELS, Feb 10 (Reuters) – Many of the world’s biggest polluter nations have missed a U.N. deadline to set new climate targets as efforts to curb global warming come under pressure following U.S. President Donald Trump’s election.

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February 11, 2025 at 04:08AM